Ernesto L' Daz

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Adapting to current and potential impacts of
Climate Change in Puerto Rico

• Ernesto L. Díaz
• Natural Resources Administration
• Department of Natural and Environmental Resources
• Southeastern and Caribbean Region Program
  Managers Meeting
• November 2007

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OBJECTIVE

• Provide an overview of Puerto Ricos natural and
  socioeconomic systems vulnerability to climate
  change.
• Discuss potential adaptation strategies,
  challenges and coastal zone management priorities
  for the next decade.

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OVERVIEW

• Relevant socioeconomic statistics.
• Storm, Flooding, erosion and sea level trends
• Potential impact analysis
• Adaptation strategies
• Biodiversity
• Challenges
• PRCMP Priorities

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Florida
Cuba
Hispaniola
Puerto Rico
USVI
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Puerto Rico RELEVANT STATISTICS

• Emerged land area 9,497 km2 (3,508 mi ²)
• Territorial waters 9 nm (10.35 stat. mi)
• Population 3.9 millon (26th U.S. largest )
  
• Coastal Zone Population 2.73 millon (70)
• 40 urban land area
• GDP 56.5 billion/yr
• Construction value 6.4 billion/ yr
• (Housing, Roads, schools,industrial,commercial
  buildings)
• Industry 25.4 billion (45)
• Tourism 4.1 billion (7)
• 12,900 hotel rooms
• 10,292,000 people used the San Juan Intl
  airport
• 1,350,000 tourists arrived by cruise ships
  
• Source PRPB 2006

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INFRASTRUCTURE WITHIN 1 KM OF THE COAST

• Eight ports
• Eight airports
• Five power plants
• 1080 miles of sanitary infrastructure
• 81 Industrial lots
• 114 miles of primary roads

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Why should a small island be concerned about
climate change?

• Over the next 100 years, small islands are likely
  to experience
• Increase in Surface Temperatures between 1.4C
  and 5.2C
• Sea level Rise between 34 to 98 cm
• Changes in rainfall patterns and flooding during
  wet seasons.
• Increase in the frequency of extreme events
• Possible increase in the intensity of tropical
  cyclones and changes in their tracks.
• Increase in frequency of extreme temperatures.
• Less rainfall during dry seasons.
• Increase in sea surface temperature.
• Socioeconomic and environmental impacts
• Skepticism v. precautionary principle?

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CAT 1
CAT 2
CAT 4
CAT 5
CAT 3
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Presidential Disaster Declarations in Puerto Rico
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Sea level rise San Juan Bay 1962-2006
1.32.3 mm/yr
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Sea level rise San Juan Bay 1993-2003
2.43.8 mm/yr
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Is Puerto Rico vulnerable to CC-SLR? Vulnerabilit
y is a function of a systems sensitivity to
climate and the capacity of that system to adapt
to climate changes. In other words, systems
that are less able to adapt to changes are
generally considered to be vulnerable to climate
change impacts (i.e. coral reefs)
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POPULATION
3.9 million

• Aprox.1,100 people/mi ²
• Increased 8 over last decade

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Flood Control projects needed
RIO GRANDE DE MANATI Cachete Palmas
RIO PUERTO NUEVO
ARECIBO HARBOR
PUERTO NUEVO BEACH
CAÑO MARTIN PEÑA DREDGING
OM 2.5 M
(SEC 103) 3 M
(GI) 1.2 M
Contrs1 2A, Completed Contract 1A,
Ongoing Contract 2AA, Bid PS, 2AR, 2B,
2D1 Est Cost 450 M
(SEC 205) 1 M
RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO
RIO BAYAMON
RIO CIBUCO

RIO GRANDE DE MANATI Barceloneta
(GI) 1 M
(SEC 205)3 M
(CG) 30 M
SAN JUAN HARBOR
RIO DE LA PLATA
AGUADILLA HARBOR
(GI) 55 M
(CG) 105 M
(CG)17 M
(SEC 111) NEW
CONDADO LAGOON
LA ESPERANZA
QUEBRADA JUAN MENDEZ
(SEC 1135) 2.2 M
(SEC 204) NEW
(SEC 208) 405,000
RIO EL OJO DE AGUA
PIÑONES HWY 187
(SEC 205) 6 M
(SEC 103) 9 M
RIO CULEBRINAS
ARECIBO
SAN JUAN
RIO FAJARDO
AGUADILLA
(SEC 205) 4.5 M
FAJARDO
CAGUAS
(SEC 205) 7.5 M
Puerto Rico
RIO YAGUEZ
(GI) 1 M
POLICE STATION
MAYAGUEZ
(SEC 14) 600,000
HIGHWAY 102
(SEC 103) NEW
RIO ANTON RUIZ
PONCE
RIO GUANAJIBO MAYAGUEZ SAN GERMAN
(SEC 205) 7 M
LAS CAROLINAS
RIO MATILDE
RIO NIGUA AT SALINAS
YABUCOA HARBOR
(GI) 32.5 M
(SEC 14) 335,000
(SEC 14) 1 M
(SFO) 350,000

RIO GUANAJIBO SABANA GRANDE
(GI) 17.5 M
RIO MATILDE
RECONNAISANCE STUDY FEASIBILITY
STUDY ECOSYSTEM RESTORATION PLANS
SPECIFICATIONS LAND ACQUISITION CONSTRUCTION CO
MPLETED PROJECTS BIG CONSTRUCTION JOBS NEEDS
CONGRESS FUNDING
RIO PATILLAS
(GI) Pending funds
RIO OROCOVIS
(SEC 205) 4 M
(SEC 205) 3 M
(205) NEW
BOQUERON WLR
RIO GRANDE DE JAYUYA
JAUCA COMMUNITY
(205) NEW
(SEC 206) 3 M
RIO NIGUA AT ARROYO
(205) NEW
PORTUGUES BUCANA
RIO DESCALABRADO
RIO LOCO
(SEC 205) 7 M
(SEC 205) 4 M
(SEC 205) 9 M
PORTUGUES DAM CERRILLOS DAM P B CHANNELS
TOTAL
169 M 253 M 175 M 579 M
RIO GRANDE DE LOIZA
RIO GUAMANI
(GI) 216 M
RIO JACAGUAS

(SEC 205) 7 M
(CG)
(SEC 205) 7 M
Total needed (2007) 1.6 Billion
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Adapting to CC-SLRin Puerto Rico

• 1. RETREAT
• New vs. Existing structures
• 2. ACCOMMODATION
• Water dependant structures
• (Port operations, airports, public
• infrastructure, access roads)
• 3. PROTECTION
• Structural, non-Structural
• and integrated solutions

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PROTECTION STRATEGIES

• Artificial reefs
• Wetlands restoration
• Wetlands enhancement
• Dunes and mangrove systems protection and
  creation
• Integrated options

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BIODIVERSITY
PUERTO RICO Ecozones (6)
Geoclimatic zones 28
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Natural Protected Areas Statistics

• Total protected areas (land) 8.24
• Total protected estuarine wetlands 31.80
• Total protected reefs 51.49
• Total protected sea grasses 49.24

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Impacts of Sedimentation on coral reefs

• Major impacts of river-derived sediment and
  nutrients
• Reduced live coral cover,
• reduced coral abundance and diversity, and
• increased algal and sponge density and diversity.

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Puerto Rico CHALLENGES

• Increase knowledge about trends of resource
  abundance and distribution
• Increase understanding of interspecies and
  species-habitat relationships
• Contribute to increase knowledge about climate
  change, sea level rise and their impact on
  terrestrial, coastal, marine and socioeconomic
  systems.
• Effectively address human use patterns that may
  affect resource sustainability and biodiversity

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Puerto Rico CHALLENGES

• Improve predictions of weather and climate change
  and their effects on coastal communities
• Improve the safety and efficiency of marine
  operations
• Reduce public health risks
• Protect healthy coastal marine ecosystems (i.e.
  wetlands and coral reefs systems) and support
  habitat restoration projects.
• Enable the sustainable use of marine and coastal
  resources.
• Develop better tools and techniques for coastal
  hazards protection (I.e. Early warning systems)

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Puerto Rico CHALLENGES

• Enhance knowledge of Waterways and Waterfronts
  for transportation and public access
• Increase Real-time Data streaming to support
  decision making
• Enhance Digital Mapping and virtual referencing
• Support essential fish habitat through effective
  coral reef management
• Better assessments of Impacts of Contaminants on
  coastal waters (I.e. sediments)
• Better understanding of CC-SLR and coastal
  hazards
• Better assessment of Vulnerability, Risks and
  Planning for Impacts
• Foster Coastal Community Resilience through
  Information dissemination and Collaboration
• Connecting Stakeholders to Management

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PRCMP PRIORITIES

• Strengthen and ensure access to the best
  information available in order to support
  decission making (in both the Public and Private
  sectors.)
• Establish the Island-wide baseline for the Public
  Domain Maritime Zone (Setback plus conservation
  easement).
• Protect coastal wetlands and coral reef systems
  from stressors such as nonpoint pollution (i.e.
  Sedimentation) through land acquisition and
  active management.
• Conduct coastal communities vulnerability
  assessments.
• Identify adaptation mechanisms for communities at
  risk.

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• COMMONWEALTH PARTNERS
• PR Planning Board
• DNER
• PR Environmental Quality Board
• Department of Agriculture
• Housing Department
• Department of Health
• Cultural Heritage Institute
• Puerto Ricos Tourism Company
• University of Puerto Rico
• Sea Grant
• Coastal Municipalities (43)

• FEDERAL PARTNERS
• NOAA OCRM
• NOAA NOS
• NOAA National Geodetic Survey
• US Geological Survey
• US Environmental Protection Agency
• Caribbean Fisheries Management Council
• International Institute of Tropical Forestry
• Natural Resources Conservation Service

• Other Commonwealth partners
• University of Puerto Rico Marine Sciences
  Department
• University of Puerto Rico Health Sciences
  Department
• Puerto Rico Water Resources Institute
• Puerto Rico Forest and Natural Reserves Systems
• Community based organizations and NGOs
• Other Universities and Research Institutions

Technology GIS Remote sensing
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www.drna.gobierno.pr
Southeastern and Caribbean Regional
Meeting Lafayette, LA November 5-8