Research and systematic observation

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• On the topic
• RESEARCH AND SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATION
• for the Fourth National Communication

Presented by Prof. G.V.
Gruza, Institute of Global Climate and
Ecology (IGCE, Roshydromet and RAS)
Institute of Global Climate and Ecology (IGCE),
Russia
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• In the Russian Federation climatic
  researches are conducted within
• Roshydromet (Federal Hydrometereology and
  Environmental Monitoring Service),
• RAS (the Russian Academy of Sciences),
• some Universities and Institutes

Climate Monitoring and Forecast Dept., IGCE,
Moscow, Russia
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• Roshydromet

• conducts investigations
• on the following directions

• climate system monitoring and assessment of
  climate variability for the major regions of
  Russia and Globe
• assessment of global changes in a chemical
  compound of the atmosphere, including
  concentration of greenhouse gases and
  stratospheric ozone
• assessment of climate changes using physical and
  mathematical modeling
• ecological, social and economic impacts of
  climate changes
• applied climatology

Climate Monitoring and Forecast Dept., IGCE,
Moscow, Russia
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• In RAS

• 
  The Program Changes in Environment
  and Climate natural catastrophy
• combines the
  climate change researches within subprogram
• 
  Climate Changes influence of
  extraterrestrial and terrestrial factors
• such as
• Studies of influence of terrestrial and
  extraterrestrial factors on changes in a chemical
  compound and structure of the upper, middle and
  lower atmosphere
• The diagnosis of regional catastrophic climate
  changes including detection natural and
  anthropogenic factors
• Mathematical modeling of the possible
  catastrophic climate changes
• Global variations of the geomagnetic fields and
  lunar tides and their relationships with climate
  changes
• Investigation of the dangerous hydrometeorological
  events

Climate Monitoring and Forecast Dept., IGCE,
Moscow, Russia
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• It would be useful to strengthen
  national research programs on some
  studies and to submit their
  results into Fourth National
  Communications as

• I think

• HIGHLIGHTS

such as

• Analysis and improvement of data homogeneity for
  the period of instrumental observations. In
  particular, for Russia, as well as for other
  countries with cold winters and significant
  fraction of frozen precipitation, improvement of
  homogeneity of atmospheric precipitation data is
  actual.
• For all countries the problem of climate changes
  detection in frequency, intensity and duration of
  extreme processes and events is actual, and
• An assessment of abilities of the modern climatic
  models to reproduce the extremes.

Climate Monitoring and Forecast Dept., IGCE,
Moscow, Russia
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Has the observed climate become more variable
and/or extreme?
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A small change in average temperature can cause
a large change in the frequency of temperature
extremes
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Likewise, a change in variability can cause a
change in the frequency of extremes
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However, the largest change in temperature
extremes can occur when both average and
variance change
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• To estimate, whether slow changes in
  characteristics of variability and extremity
  exist, we should eliminate slow variations of
  means in observation time series.
• As a model of slow variations of means, i.e.,
  trends, we attempt the following time series of
  dynamic normals
• low-pass filtered series Rm
• linear trend (regression on the time) Ry
• regression on the carbon dioxide concentration
  Rc
• regression on the global annual mean temperature
  Rg.

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• For the estimation of low-frequency variability
  and existence of monotonic trends of variability
  we use time series of absolute values of
  deviations from dynamic norms or from
  regressions mentioned above.

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Spectralanalysis NH-T
Dm Am
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T r e n d s in absolute values of
deviations of the mean surface temperature
from their regression on the averaged
CO2-concentration
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T-regr(CO2), Year (Jan.-Dec.), 1951-1998
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T-regr(CO2), Cold (Oct.-Mar.), 1951-1998
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T-regr(CO2), Warm (Apr.-Sep.), 1951-1998
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systematic observations

• RosHydromet is responsible for systematic
  observations on climate. 
• Following the UNFCCC guidelines, the NC3 includes
  an annex with information on the Global Climate
  ObservingSystem (GCOS). 
• Terrestrial observationsare conducted in
  conjunction with specific projects only, as there
  is not apermanent system required by the GCOS.
• We hope to include separate report on our GCOS
  activity into THE FOURTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION

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Observational Network Over Russia (Climate
Monitoring in IGCE)
RUSSIA
S455-monthly
S223-daily
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Number of meteorological stations, presented in
IGCE-climatic database for the period from 1886
to 2000
Globe (max1383)f.USSR (max455)
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What is planned to do
1. To improve the basic climatic datasets
To extend a set of hydrometeorological variables
To increase a network density up to 600
stations (from 200) for air temperature and up
1000 stations with precipitation data
To provide a time resolution till "daily" one.
To improve data homogeneity and quality.
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2. To investigate and monitor the regional
climates changes and variability
To create sets of regional indicators (indices)
to be used in regular regional climate
monitoring of a climate state, climate
variability and extremity.
To develop the methods for a joint analysis of
the observed and modeled data to realize a
model validation and model quality assessment
To attribute the possible natural and
anthropogenic reasons responsible for the
climate changes observed.