Acknowledgements

1
Acknowledgements

• Alex Kozyr
• Chris Sabine
• Rik Wanninkhof

• Cyril Crevoisier
• Eric Galbraith
• Sara Mikalofff-Fletcher
• Yves Plancherel
• Keith Rodgers
• Jorge Sarmiento

2
U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Overarching Questions

Scientific Question How large and variable are
the dynamic reservoirs and fluxes of carbon
within the Earth system, and how might carbon
cycling change and be managed in future years,
decades, and centuries? Societal Question What
are our options for managing carbon sources and
sinks to achieve an appropriate balance of risk,
cost and benefits to society?
3
U.S. Interagency Carbon Cycle Science Program
(4/1/05)Organization to Accommodate Ocean BGC
SSC Project Office
Carbon Cycle Interagency Working Group (CCIWG)
CARBON CYCLE SCIENCE STEERING GROUP (CCSSG)
Carbon Cycle Program Office
NACP SSG
OCCC SSG
Plug-in to Ocean BGC SSC and Project Office
NACP Office
OCCC Office
NACP PIs
OCCC PIs
N. Amer.Carbon Prog.
Ocean Carbon and Climate Change
4
U.S. Interagency Carbon Cycle Science Program
(4/1/05)Ocean Biogeochemistry SSC and Project
Office
U.S. Ocean Carbon Biogeochemistry Steering
Committee
OCCC SSG
Plug-in to CCSP OCCC SSG and Office
U.S.Ocean Carbon Biogeochemistry Project Data
Management Offices
O.C.B.
IMBER-/SOLAS-/Other-Indentified
Investigators
OCCC-/
5
U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Six Major Questions

1. North American carbon sources and sinks and
processes controlling their dynamics (NACP) 2.
Ocean carbon sources and sinks and processes
controlling their dynamics (OCB/OCCC) 3. Effects
of land use change and resource management
practices 4. Changes in global terrestrial,
oceanic, and atmospheric carbon sources and sinks
and integration for global carbon budgets 5.
Future atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4,
and other carbon-containing greenhouse gases and
future changes in terrestrial and marine carbon
sources and sinks 6. Earth system and component
responses to management of carbon in the
environment
6

• US Carbon Cycle Research
• Overseen by a Carbon Cycle Interagency Working
  Group (NSF,NOAA,NASA, DOE, USGS, USDA. )
• Advised by a US Carbon Cycle Scientific Steering
  group chaired by Richard Birdsey, US Forest
  Service (USFS) (Feely, Bates, Doney, B. Law, C.
  Lee, Raymond, Yoder ocean carbon members)
• North American Carbon Program (NACP)
• Terrestrial (and coastal ocean) carbon cycling
  and sequestration in the US -
• North American carbon budget
  and?implications for the global carbon cycle
  http//climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-2/final
  -report/default.htm
• Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry Program,
• Program office in Woods Hole- http//us-ocb.org
• Project Components
• community building and support?
• workshop sponsorship?(Ocean acidifcation workshop
  SIO October, 2007
• data management (including data recovery,
  enhanced availability and long-term archive)
• July 21-24, 2008-Ocean Carbon and
  Biogeochemistry Science Workshop WHOI

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North American Carbon Program

The central objective is to measure and
understand carbon stocks and the sources
and sinks of CO2, CO, and CH4 in North America
and in adjacent ocean regions.
What is the carbon balance of North America and
adjacent oceans? What are the geographic
patterns of fluxes of CO2 and CH4 and CO?
How is the balance changing over time?
Plan
What processes control the sources and sinks
of CO2 and CH4 and CO, and how do the
controls change with time? Are there
potential surprises? Could sources
increase or
sinks disappear? How can we enhance and
manage long-lived carbon sinks, and
provide resources to support
decision makers?
Implementation Strategy
8
Sampling domains for the coastal ocean component
of NACP. The red dots show locations of coastal
time-series black solid lines indicate survey
lines and red transparent boxes indicate
proposed study sites.
9
National Data Buoy CenterObserving System
10
Significant Reports 2007
http//climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-2/final
-report/default.htm
Chavez, F., T. Takahashi, W.-J. Cai, G. E.
Friederich, B. E. Hales, R. Wanninkhof, and R. A.
Feely (2007), Chapter 15. The Coastal Ocean, in
The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report
(SOCCR) The North American Carbon Budget and
Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle. Report
by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and
the Subcommittee on Global Change Research ,
edited by A. W. King, et al., pp. 157-166,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
National Climatic Data Center , Asheville, NC,
USA.
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OCB Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry Program
OCB Missionto establish the evolving role of
the ocean in the global carbon cycle, in the face
of environmental change, through studies of
marine biogeochemical cycles and associated
ecosystems
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OCB Overarching Science Themes
Improve understanding and prediction of 1)
oceanic uptake and release of atmospheric CO2 and
other greenhouse gases 2) climate-sensitivities
of biogeochemical cycles and interactions with
ecosystem structure
13
The approach we have taken is to coordinate both
NACP and OCCC to give us a continuum from dry
land to the open ocean
NACP
OCCC

• NACP has primary responsibility for land-ocean
  exchanges
• Both programs have responsibility for shelf
  processes
• OCCC has primary responsibility for shelf-open
  ocean exchanges

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Data Synthesis Efforts
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U.S. Repeat Hydrography
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Global Repeat Hydrography
17
VOS Underway pCO2
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Moorings
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CARINA

• 3 Working Groups Arctic, North Atlantic,
  Southern Ocean
• 169 Potential new cruises (originally 30)
• Common units and format with QC flags
• Semi-automated pseudo-objective secondary QC
  (bias quantification)
• Public release of calibrated merged data products
  and individual cruise data

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Pacific Synthesis has been coordinated through
PICES working groups
Initial synthesis started in 2004 resulting in
special section of JGR

• Lessons learned
• Most progress was made on surface CO2 because
  water column data were not readily available in
  accessible format
• Modeler participation from the start was very
  helpful
• Having a clear goal and deadline (i.e. special
  section of JGR) kept people moving forward

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Pacific Synthesis is moving into the next phase
Synthesis of water column data Coordinated
through the new PICES Carbon and Climate Section
Co-chairs Jim Christian and Toshiro Saino
Three working groups North Pacific led by
Sabine, Murata and Ishii Equatorial Pacific led
by Feely and Ishii South Pacific led by Tilbrook
All groups will be working with Key to compile
data once Atlantic work slows down
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CLIVAR Climate Process Team

• Small research groups collaborating on a specific
  topic
• The key aim is to speed development of global
  coupled climate models, reduce climate model
  uncertainties and identify sustained
  observational requirements.
• 2-4 CPTs with total funding of 2.5M/yr

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Southern Ocean water mass transformation and the
carbon cycle

• J. Sarmiento, P.I., Princeton U.
• R. Key Princeton U.
• J. Dunne, A. Gnanadesikan, R. Toggweiler GFDL
• R. Feely C. Sabine PMEL
• R. Wanninkhof AOML
• S. Doney WHOI NCAR
• J. Russell U. Arizona
• M. Follows MIT

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Goal Evaluate the impact of biases of Southern
Ocean circulation on the carbon cycle and to
understand the causes for the biases.

• develop Southern Ocean circulation diagnostics to
  determine the best climatology
• evaluate the relative impacts of winds, buoyancy
  forcing, mixing, and physical and biogeochemical
  model formulation on those aspects of Southern
  Ocean ventilation and biogeochemistry most
  important for the carbon cycle

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A Quick Tour of Individual Carbon Related
Research Projects by A.O.S. at Princeton
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Keith Rodgers
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Yves Plancherel
Mixing and remineralization ratios in the global
ocean A non-linear approach
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What is water mass analysis?
A water mass is a body of water defined by a
common formation history and originating in a
particular region of the ocean (Tomczak 99)
9 equations 5 x ratios, 1 x ?P some xs
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Global vs. local optimization
Simulated Annealing
Realm of physically relevant solutions
Local optimization
Local minima
Cost function ?(predicted-observed)2weight
Global minimum
Parameter e.g.??N/?P
Redfield
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Methodology Flow chart
Sampling biases, Measurement errors
Assumptions/ accuracy
Precision
Interpretation? Can we extract that information
from the observations?
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Distribution of water massesMass fractions,
neutral density and Si vs. depth (I8S/I9N)
0
1000
2000
Depth m
3000
4000
5000
N.Atl.
Interm.
gamma.n
60S
40S
20S
Eq
60S
40S
20S
Eq
60S
40S
20S
Eq
0
1000
2000
Depth m
3000
4000
5000
Bot. W.
Mode
Si
60S
40S
20S
Eq
60S
40S
20S
Eq
60S
40S
20S
Eq
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Cyril Crevoisier

• Now _at_ Laboratoire de Météorologie
  Dynamique/CNRS/IPSL
• Ecole Polytechnique,France

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Study of the 3D distribution of CO2 over the US

• NOAA/ESRL network of 19 aircraft stations in the
  US measurements of CO2 vertical profiles (0-8km)
  twice a month.

0-8 km

• Vertical profiles are interpolated to get the
  whole 3D distribution of CO2 in the coterminous
  US and South of Canada.

Free Tropo-sphere

• Information not restricted to the Boundary Layer.
  The rectification effect is thus reduced.

Boundary Layer
Use of a Direct Carbon Budgeting Approach to
estimate carbon sinks
Crevoisier et al., TellusB, 2006
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Estimates of regional carbon sinks in the
coterminous US and South of Canada
-0.51?0.39 GtC.yr-1
NACP
Crevoisier et al., to be submitted
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Modeling of fire in the boreal forests.
Increased fire occurrence and related carbon
losses to the atmosphere are likely.
design of a prognostic model of burned area
(2x2.5) for the boreal forest for use in
climate simulations.
Relative importance of each driver to estimate BA
In the boreal forest, precipitation and
temperature are the two main drivers of fire,
followed by soil water content and road density.
Burned area (ha)
Very strong interannual variability, which is
caught by the model.
The model is implemented in LM3V, the new dynamic
vegetation model of GFDL.
Crevoisier et al., JGR, in press
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Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher
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Carbon Tracker

• Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation
  technique
• Weekly flux estimates with high resolution over
  North America
• Source code, results, and related materials
  available online at
• http//www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/carbontracker/

Figure Courtesy of NOAA-ESRL
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Impact of Satellite CO2 on Inversions

• The Orbital Carbon Observatory is scheduled to be
  launched in 2008
• OSSE experiments show this data will
  substantially reduce errors in atmospheric
  inversions
• Techniques to use the satellite data are
  currently being developed

Figure courtesy of David Baker
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Tropical and Temperate Southern Hemisphere CO2
Budget
Flux (Pg C yr-1) Flux (Pg C yr-1) Flux (Pg C yr-1) Reference
Air-sea Fluxes (15N-44S) Air-sea Fluxes (15N-44S) 0.1 0.9 -0.5 0.2 Gurney et al., 2004 Jacobson et al., 2007 Gurney et al., 2004 Jacobson et al., 2007
Terrestrial Fluxes (15N-44S) Terrestrial Fluxes (15N-44S) 1.0 2.2 1.8 1.0 Gurney et al., 2004 Jacobson et al., 2007 Gurney et al., 2004 Jacobson et al., 2007
Tropical Deforestation Tropical Deforestation 1.3 0.3 2.2 0.8 Archard et al., 2002 Houghton, 2003 Archard et al., 2002 Houghton, 2003
Remaining Terrestrial Flux Remaining Terrestrial Flux -0.3 to -1.2 0.5 to -0.4
Includes soil emission correction of Houghton,
2003
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