Feb 15, 2006 CENRAP Modeling Team Conference Call

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Feb 15, 2006CENRAP Modeling Team Conference Call

• Call Information
• Wednesday, March 23, 2005
• 100pm CT 1200pm MT 1100am PT
• Conference line 1-800-504-4496
• Participants access code 6154948

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Today's Topics

• Emissions QA for 2002 Typical and 2018
• We have large CMAQ sulfate increases for some
  months in 2002 typical compared to 2002 base.
• We have CMAQ sulfate increases for some days in
  2018 compared to 2002 typical.
• QA plots are prepared to understand the changes
  in emissions that caused these increases.

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2002 Emissions Problems

• New temporal profiles for VISTAS point sources
  were used in 2002 typical
• caused large increase in SO2 emissions in 2002
  typical compared to 2002 base in some months in
  MWRPO, VISTAS, and MANE-VU.
• 2002 typical and 2018 are consistent.
• We plan to use original temporal profiles in the
  next version of 2002 typical and 2018.

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2018 Emissions Summary

• Non-point SO2 source had only small changes.
• We have increases in some non-EGU SO2 point
  emissions sources in 2018 because of increases in
  growth factors
• these sources did not have emissions controls.
• 2018 EGU data were from CENRAP IPM output and we
  grew non-EGU point sources from 2002 data
• the 2002 point sources data included EGUs
• we removed 2002 EGU sources using the cross
  walk and we grew the 2002 non-EGU sources to
  create the 2018 emissions
• possible that a few EGU sources remain in the
  2018 non-EGU file, but we believe that all or
  virtually all of these were removed.

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Sample of Point sources with increase in SO2
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Conclusions

• Appears that CMAQ sulfate increases in 2018
  compared to 2002 typical are from growth factors
  in uncontrolled SO2 point sources
• are these increases correct or is additional
  review needed?
• We will use original point source temporal
  profiles in the next version of 2002 typical and
  2018 emissions.