DSL technologies

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Take-up of DSL technologies Tim Johnson Publisher
www.point-topic.com January 2005
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Contents

• VDSL and VDSL2
• ADSL2
• Symmetric DSL

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Overlapping markets
VDSL
Symmetric DSL
FTTB
ADSL2
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VDSL and VDSL2
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Original VDSL a technology going nowhere?

• Big in Asia-Pacific
• mainly distributing FTTB inside MTUs
• 2.2m lines in Korea alone - but levelling off
• large numbers in China (6m?) and Japan
• Very little public network VDSL
• old projects not being extended
• few new ones identified (Belgium, Norway,
  Slovenia)
• substantially all shipments into FTTB buildouts

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Even Korea Telecoms VDSL growth has slackened off
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A case study in missing the bus

• Too much too soon
• early versions were a solution looking for a
  problem
• leapfrogged by ADSL2 newer technology, better
  suited to actual need
• A marketing disaster
• long, destructive standards battle
• moribund industry associations
• repeated failure to meet expectations

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Will VDSL2 be different?

• Standard on a fast track?
• first ratification Q3 2005 base standard soon
  after
• driven by the US RBOCs compromises to get
  agreement
• Delivering 30Mbps up to 1.8km - eventually
• What RBOCs need to offer full triple play?
• two HiDef TV channels data VoIP
• A major technology in N. America in 2006
• Ramen Cohen, Metalink
• Too disruptive for Europe?

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ADSL2
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ADSL2 the right technology at the right time?

• Downstream speeds enough for realistic
  applications
• Better range than original VDSL
• Easier to integrate into an ADSL world
• Annex J supports business symmetry requirement

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Leading-edge operators moving rapidly into ADSL2

• Sweden and Norway
• 60,000 ADSL2 ports by end-2004
• Free (France)
• migrating 1m customers to ADSL2 FreeBox
• 6Mbps downstream for Euro 30/month
• Wanadoo (Netherlands)
• 8Mbps/1Mbps for Euro88/month
• BellSouth (USA)
• will use ADSL2 to trial a video offering

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Symmetric DSL
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Symmetric DSL many choices, slow take-up

• SDSL
• proprietary, mainly USA
• SHDSL
• ITU standard, industrial strength, still a niche
• Symmetrical ADSLs
• ADSL2 Annex J could be the preferred choice
• VDSL
• some business offerings in special situations?

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1.2m Symmetric DSL lines worldwide by end-2004
Source Point Topic
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Signs of stronger growth in future

• Some uptick in business broadband in 2004
• Arrival of ADSL2 should make symmetric broadband
  cheaper and easier
• SHDSL still has technical advantages
• IP VPN more recognised as the unifying platform
  for business applications
• IP-over-Ethernet seen as the coming technology

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Tim Johnson www.point-topic.com tim_at_point-topic.co
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