Emergimg Risks

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SAFEFOODERA Stakeholder Group Meeting with
Retailers Emerging Risks Ljubljana, 8 - 9
February 2007
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Why Emerging Risk Identification?

• timely recognition of critical situations
• increased number of options for action to risk
  managers

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Emerging risk identification ? crucial part of
any coherent,effective and dynamic food policy
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Europe Article 34of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002
... EFSA .... shall establish monitoring
proceduresfor systematically searching for,
collecting, collating andanalysing information
and data with a view to theidentification of
emerging risks in the fields within its mission.
major preventative instrument
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Limitations of Risk Analysis

• usually neglected long-term consequences
  andimpacts of factors outside the food chain
• not incorporated adequately various interacting
  processes which influence the evolution of a risk
  
• often ignored human factor (only simplistic or
  standardised schemes of behaviour)

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• PERIAPT- Workshop (Bonn, July 2004)
• International Organisations
• Research institutions
• Industry
• Consumer Organisations
• Governmental Bodies

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Definitions
Article 3 of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002
Risk ? a function of the probability of an
adverse healtheffect and the severity of that
effect, consequential to a hazard
Hazard ? a biological, chemical or physical agent
in, or condition of, food or feed with the
potential to cause an adverse health effect
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Definitions
Periapt 2004
Emerging Risk ? a potential food or feed borne or
diet-related hazard that may become a risk for
human health in the (near) future
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Early Warning System AWACS
AWACS (Airborne Early Warning and Control
System)
The detected indicator (signal) is the hazard
itself!
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Early Warning SystemTsunami
The detected indicator (signal) is the hazard
itself!
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Pro-active Methodology Climate Forecast
? Observed indicators are not part of the hazard
but (possibly) suitable to detect a risk
proactively
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Emerging Risks The Holistic Approach
Food Safety
Analysing the environment of the food supply
chain.
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Holistic Vision
Economy ? Globalisation increasing complexity of
food production chain limitations in
traceability Nature Environment ?
Climate modified behaviour of microorganisms
could lead to new or different biological food
risks . . . .
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Flow diagram holistic approach
Periapt 2004
Influential sectors
Critical factors
Indicators
Example Emerging risk of contamination of crop
by mycotoxin-producing moulds
Nature Environment
Climate
Rainfall Temperature
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Status in 5 15 years Will fish from the arctic
regions still be safe to eat?
Threats interdisciplinary,complex and global
issue
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Key characteristics of anEmerging Risk
Identification System

• anticipatory approach
• process
• no replacement of Early Warning Systems

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What to do?

• pro-active identification of food related risks
• consideration of plurality of involved factors
  identification and weighing of key issues
• combination of specialised knowledge fromvarious
  disciplines
• consideration of changing factors

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Thank you for your attention!