PNACO Scenario

1
PNACO Scenario

• RAPID

January 29, 2008
2
PNACO Scenario Outline
An analyst needs to find out if any Iranian
nano-tech companies have realistic capabilities
to manufacture Air-Borne Toxins (ABT). RAPID
creates initial probes for REALISM. From the
evidence supplied by REALISM, RAPID identifies a
company that we call PNACO that manufactures
Nano-Diamond Powder-based lubricants. RAPID
instantiates two potential pathways for producing
that product Detonation Synthesis and
High-Energy Ball Milling. High Energy Ball
Milling is also found in a pathway leading to the
production of Air-Borne Toxins. The uncertainty
regarding the production of ABT by PNACO is
deemed critical by RAPID and it creates several
probes for additional information, including one
that requests the particle size of the
Nano-Diamond Powder produced by PNACO. REALISM
finds evidence that the particle size is 5nm
indicating the Detonation Synthesis process which
significantly lowers the probability of the
pathway leading to the production of Air-Borne
Toxins by PNACO.
3
RAPID Workflow
Evidence Propagation
Identification of Critical Uncertainties
Co-reference Resolution
Ontology
Probes
Evidence Integration
Probe Creation and Prioritization
Evidence
Beliefs
Probe Execution
State of the World
4
Ontology
Entity
RAPIDs general knowledge about the worlds
entities, their structure and relationships is
encoded in RAPIDs ontology
5
Company Ontology
Company Unique ID Name (can have several
values) Business Activity (manufacturing or
trading or both) Product Process Pathway
Address Phone People Origin
This is a fragment used in the PNACO scenario
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Product Ontology
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Process and Pathway Ontology
Process1 HEBM
Product1 LPNP
Process2 CoatToxin
Product2 ABT
PWY-ABT
Process1 HEBM
Product1 NDP coarse
Process2 MixOil
Product2 Nano-Oil
PWY-nOil-c
Process1 DetSyn
Product1 NDP fine
Process2 MixOil
Product2 Nano-Oil
PWY-nOil-f
Process1 PWE
Product1 Nano-Metal
PWY-nMetal
8
Nano Manufacturing Processes
Detonation nanodiamond manufacturing equipment at
Sinta Ltd, Ukraine
Metal Nano Powder Fabrication System using Pulse
Wire Evaporation (PWE) machine (Korea)
9
Initial Probes
Find Iranian Companies which produce Air-Borne
Toxins
Find Iranian manufacturing companies whose
description contains the word nano report
their names, products and business activities
10
Example of source information
11
Evidence provided by REALISM
REALISM communicates evidence using IKL
(Interoperable Knowledge Language) extension of
ISO Common Logic
( ev1 (that (company C1))) (confidence ev1
1.0) ( ev2 (that (name C1 Iran Nano Metal
Powder Industry))) (confidence ev2 1.0) ( ev3
(that (bus-activity C1 Manufacturing))) (confide
nce ev3 1.0) ( ev4 (that (product C1 Copper
Metal Powder))) (confidence ev4 1.0)
RAPID repackages this evidence into the evidence
table
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Evidence Table 1
Ev_ID Item_ID Item_type Attr_name Attr_value conf
ev1 c1 company self c1 1
ev2 c1 company name Iran Nano Metal Powder Industry 1
ev3 c1 company bus_activity Manufacturing 1
ev4 c1 company product Copper Metal Powder 1
ev5 c2 company self c2 1
ev6 c2 company name pishgaman nano 1
ev7 c2 company bus_activity Manufacturing 1
ev8 c2 company product Nano Diamond Powder .96
ev9 c2 company product Nano Diamond .96
ev10 c2 company product Diamond Powder .96
ev11 c2 company product Lubricant .96
ev12 c3 company self c3 1
ev13 c3 company name Pishgaman Nano Arya 1
ev14 c3 company bus_activity Manufacturer 1
ev15 c3 company product Nano Oil .92
ev16 c3 company product Nano Technology Products .92
ev17 c4 company self c4 1
ev18 c4 company name Pishgaman Nano Arya. 1
ev19 c4 company product Manufacturing 1
ev20 c4 company product Inorganic Salt .94
ev21 c5 company self c5 1
ev22 c5 company name Pishgaman Nano Arya 1
ev23 c5 company bus_activity Trading 1
ev24 c5 company bus_activity Manufacturing 1
ev25 c5 company product petrochemistry .96
ev26 c5 company product Nano Oil .96
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Evidence Integration 1
RAPID creates instances of companies and products
mentioned in the evidence table
Company c1 1.0 Name Iran Nano Metal Powder
Industry 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing 1.0
Product p1
Product p1 Copper Metal Powder Category Nano-Coppe
r Form Powder
Product p2 Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder
Company c2 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano 1.0
Bus-activity Manufacturing .96 Product p2, p3
Product p3 Lubricant Category Lubricant
Company c3 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya 1.0
Bus-activity Manufacturing .92 Product p4, p5
Product p4 Nano-Oil Category Nano-Oil
Product p5 Nano Technology Products Category Nano-
Products
Company c4 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya. 1.0
Bus-activity Manufacturing .94 Product p6
Product p6 Inorganic Salt Category Nano Crystals
Product p7 Petrochemistry Category Products
Company c5 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya 1.0
Bus-activity Manufacturing, Trading .96
Product p7, p8
Product p8 Nano-Oil Category Nano-Oil
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Co-reference Resolution 1
.5
.5
.6
.5
.7
.6
Although the names are very similar,
co-references are .75
p3
p7
p5
c5
c2
c3
p8
p2
p4
Product p2 subsumes p3, p4 subsumes p5 and p8
subsumes p7
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RAPIDs Beliefs after Co-ref Resolution 1
To resolve co-references between c2, c3, c4, and
c5 RAPID creates additional probes
Company c1 1.0 Name Iran Nano Metal Powder
Industry 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing 1.0
Product p1
Product p1 Copper Metal Powder Category Nano-Coppe
r Form Powder
Product p2 Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder
Company c2 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano 1.0
Bus-activity Manufacturing .96 Product p2
Product p4 Nano-Oil Category Nano-Oil
Company c3 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya 1.0
Bus-activity Manufacturing .92 Product p4
Product p6 Inorganic Salt Category Nano Crystals
Product p8 Nano-Oil Category Nano-Oil
Company c4 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya. 1.0
Bus-activity Manufacturing .94 Product p6
Co-refs
.5
.6
.7
Company c5 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano Arya 1.0
Bus-activity Manufacturing, Trading .96 Product p8
.5
.5
.6
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Probes 2
Find phone numbers and addresses of companies c2,
c3, c4, and c5.
REALISM returns the following evidence which is
added to the evidence table
( ev27 (that (address C2 No1-Block 2-Ferdos
Complex-Pak St. -Sattarkhan St., Tehran, Tehran,
Iran))) (confidence ev27 .95) ( ev28 (that
(phone C2 98-21-88255207))) (confidence ev28
.92) ( ev29 (that (phone C2 9125599956))) (conf
idence ev29 .92) ( ev30 (that (phone C2
98-21-66905896))) (confidence ev30 .92)
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Evidence Table 2
Ev_ID Item_ID Item_type Attr_name Attr_value conf
ev27 c2 company address No1-Block 2-Ferdos Complex-Pak St. -Sattarkhan St., Tehran, Tehran, Iran .95
ev28 c2 company phone [phone]
ev29 c2 company phone [phone]
ev30 c2 company phone [phone]
ev31 c3 company address No 1, Block 2, Ferdows Complex, Hajipuramir St. , Sattarkhan Ave., Tehran, Tehran, Iran .94
ev32 c3 company phone [phone]
ev33 c3 company phone [phone]
ev34 c3 company phone [phone]
ev35 c4 company address Azadi St. , Tehran, Tehran, Iran .90
ev36 c4 company phone [phone]
ev37 c4 company phone [phone]
ev38 c4 company phone [phone]
ev39 c5 company address 1st Floor - No.10 - PISHVA Ave. - KHAZENI Ave. - North, ESKANDARI Ave. - AZADI Ave. .95
ev40 c5 company phone [phone]
ev41 c5 company phone [phone]
ev42 c5 company phone [phone]
ev43 c5 company phone [phone]
ev44 c5 company phone [phone]
Every pair of companies has a least one phone
number in common Companies c2 and c3 have almost
identical addresses
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Additional Curiosity
This lab equipment supplier has exactly the same
phone and fax numbers as Pishgaman Nano Arya. The
CEO of this company, Mr. Ebrahim Zadeh has the
same name and mobile phone number as the
Marketing Director for Pishgaman Nano Arya.
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Co-reference Resolution 2
The new evidence raises the co-reference
probability past the .75 threshold RAPID creates
a new company PNACO which inherits all properties
of c2, c3, c4 and c5
.8
.8
.8
.8
.8
.8
PNACO inherits 4 products from the merger p2,
p4, p6, and p8
Both p4 and p8 are Nano-Oil and can be merged
p6
Product p2 is a specialization of p6 and subsumes
it
p2
p4
PNACO
p8
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RAPIDs Beliefs after Co-ref Resolution 2
Company c1 1.0 Name Iran Nano Metal Powder
Industry 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing 1.0
Product p1
Product p1 Copper Metal Powder Category Nano-Coppe
r Form Powder
Company PNACO 1.0 Name Pishgaman
Nano Pishgaman Nano Arya Pishgaman Nano
Aria. 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing, Trading .96
Product p2, p4
Product p2 Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder
Product p4 Nano-Oil Category Nano-Oil
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Pathway Instantiation 1
Company c1 1.0 Name Iran Nano Metal Powder
Industry 1.0 Bus-activity Manufacturing 1.0
Product p1
Product p1 Copper Metal Powder Category Nano-Coppe
r Form Powder
Process1 PWE-1
Product1 p1
PWY-nMetal-1 Probability 1.0
Company c1
Product p1 matches Nano-Metal RAPID creates an
instance of pathway PWY-nMetal and an instance of
process PWE Since no other way of manufacturing
p1 is known at this point, RAPID believes that
this pathway instance has the probability 1.0
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Pathway Instantiation 1 (cont.)
Process1 HEBM
Product1 NDP coarse
Process2 MixOil
Product2 Nano-Oil
PWY-nOil-c
Process1 DetSyn
Product1 NDP fine
Process2 MixOil
Product2 Nano-Oil
PWY-nOil-f
Company PNACO .96 Product p2, p4
Product p2 Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder
Product p4 Nano-Oil Category Nano-Oil
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RAPIDs Beliefs After Pathway Instantiation 1
Company c1 1.0 Name Iran Nano Metal Powder
Industry 1.0 Product p1 1.0 Process PWE-1 1.0
Pathway PWY-nMetal-1
Product p1 Copper Metal Powder Category Nano-Coppe
r Form Powder
Process1 PWE-1
Product1 p1
PWY-nMetal-1
Company PNACO 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano .48
Product p2a .48 Product p2b .96 Product p4 .48
Process HEBM-1 .48 Process ConDet-1 .96
Process MixOil-1 .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1 .48
Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1
Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder Particle-size Coarse (gt 50nm)
Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder Particle-size Fine (lt 50nm)
Product p4 Nano-Oil Category Nano-Oil
Process1 HEBM-1
Product1 p2a
Process2 MixOil-1
Product2 p4
PWY-nOil-c-1
Process1 DetSyn-1
Product1 p2b
Process2 MixOil-1
Product2 p4
PWY-nOil-f-1
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Pathway Instantiation 2
Process1 HEBM
Product1 LPNP
Process2 CoatToxin
Product2 ABT
PWY-ABT
Company PNACO 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano .48
Product p2a .48 Product p2b .96 Product p4 .48
Process HEBM-1 .48 Process DetSyn-1 .96
Process MixOil-1 .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1 .48
Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1
Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder Particle-size Coarse (gt 50nm)
Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder Particle-size Fine (lt 50nm)
Product p4 Nano-Oil Category Nano-Oil
Process1 HEBM-1
Product1 p9 (LPNP)
Process2 CoatToxin-1
Product2 p10 (ABT)
PWY-ABT-1 Probability .48
RAPID creates two inferred products p9 (LPNP)
and p10 (Air-Borne Toxin)
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Identification of Critical Uncertainties
Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder Particle-size Coarse (gt 50nm)
Company c1 omitted
Company PNACO 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano .48
Product p2a .48 Product p2b .96 Product p4 .48
Product p9 .48 Product p10 .48 Process HEBM-1 .48
Process DetSyn-1 .96 Process MixOil-1 .48
Process CoatToxin-1 .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1 .48
Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1 .48 Pathway PWY-ABT-1
Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder Particle-size Fine (lt 50nm)
Product p4 Nano-Oil Category Nano-Oil
Product p9 LPNP Category LPNP
Product p10 Air-Born Toxin Category ABT
Process1 HEBM-1
Product1 p2a
Process2 MixOil-1
Product2 p4
PWY-nOil-c-1
Process1 DetSyn-1
Product1 p2b
Process2 MixOil-1
Product2 p4
PWY-nOil-f-1
Process1 HEBM-1
Product1 p9
Process2 CoatToxin-1
Product2 p10
PWY-ABT-1
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Identification of Critical Uncertainties
Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder Particle-size Coarse (gt 50nm)
Company c1 omitted
Company PNACO 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano .48
Product p2a .48 Product p2b .96 Product p4 .48
Product p9 .48 Product p10 .48 Process HEBM-1 .48
Process DetSyn-1 .96 Process MixOil-1 .48
Process CoatToxin-1 .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1 .48
Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1 .48 Pathway PWY-ABT-1
Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder Particle-size Fine (lt 50nm)
Product p4 Nano-Oil Category Nano-Oil
Product p9 LPNP Category LPNP
Product p10 Air-Born Toxin Category ABT
Process1 HEBM-1
Product1 p2a
Process2 MixOil-1
Product2 p4
PWY-nOil-c-1
Process1 DetSyn-1
Product1 p2b
Process2 MixOil-1
Product2 p4
PWY-nOil-f-1
Process1 HEBM-1
Product1 p9
Process2 CoatToxin-1
Product2 p10
PWY-ABT-1
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Identification of Critical Uncertainties
Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder Particle-size Coarse (gt 50nm)
Company c1 omitted
Company PNACO 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano .48
Product p2a .48 Product p2b .96 Product p4 .48
Product p9 .48 Product p10 .48 Process HEBM-1 .48
Process DetSyn-1 .96 Process MixOil-1 .48
Process CoatToxin-1 .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1 .48
Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1 .48 Pathway PWY-ABT-1
Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder Particle-size Fine (lt 50nm)
Product p4 Nano-Oil Category Nano-Oil
Product p9 LPNP Category LPNP
Product p10 Air-Born Toxin Category ABT
Process1 HEBM-1
Product1 p2a
Process2 MixOil-1
Product2 p4
PWY-nOil-c-1
Process1 DetSyn-1
Product1 p2b
Process2 MixOil-1
Product2 p4
PWY-nOil-f-1
Process1 HEBM-1
Product1 p9
Process2 CoatToxin-1
Product2 p10
PWY-ABT-1
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Identification of Critical Uncertainties
Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder Particle-size Coarse (gt 50nm)
Company c1 omitted
Company PNACO 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano .48
Product p2a .48 Product p2b .96 Product p4 .48
Product p9 .48 Product p10 .48 Process HEBM-1 .48
Process DetSyn-1 .96 Process MixOil-1 .48
Process CoatToxin-1 .48 Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1 .48
Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1 .48 Pathway PWY-ABT-1
Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder Particle-size Fine (lt 50nm)
Product p4 Nano-Oil Category Nano-Oil
Product p9 LPNP Category LPNP
Product p10 Air-Born Toxin Category ABT
Process1 HEBM-1
Product1 p2a
Process2 MixOil-1
Product2 p4
PWY-nOil-c-1
Process1 DetSyn-1
Product1 p2b
Process2 MixOil-1
Product2 p4
PWY-nOil-f-1
Process1 HEBM-1
Product1 p9
Process2 CoatToxin-1
Product2 p10
PWY-ABT-1
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Probe Targets
Target Company Attribute Entity Prob. Import Cost
t1 PNACO Product p2a .48 7 1
t2 PNACO Product p9 .48 8 5
t3 PNACO Product p10 .48 10 10
t4 PNACO Process HEBM-1 .48 8 8
t5 PNACO Process CoatToxin-1 .48 9 8
RAPID decides that t1 is the most cost-effective
target
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Probes 3
Probe4 SELECT ID, category, company,
particle_size FROM product WHERE company
c2, c3, c4, c5 and category NDP

• Find the particle size of Nano-Diamond Powder
  produced by PNACO
• Because REALISM does not know about PNACO, RAPID
  has to use the company IDs received from REALISM
• In the future, probes will not be limited to
  REALISM information requests

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Evidence Table 3
Ev_ID Item_ID Item_type Attr_name Attr_value confidence
ev45 RP1 product particle-size 5nm 0.7
ev46 RP1 product company c2 0.9
ev47 RP1 product category nano-crystals 0.8

• Since company c2 was absorbed into PNACO, this
  evidence is used to update RAPIDs beliefs about
  PNACO
• Nano-crystals with particle size of 5nm match
  product p2b fine Nano-Diamond Powder
  hypothetically produced by PNACO
• This raises the probability of p2b to 0.85 and
  lowers the probability of p2a to 0.15
• Next slide shows the effects of evidence
  propagation

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RAPIDs Beliefs After New Evidence Integration
Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder Particle-size Coarse (gt 50nm)
Company c1 omitted
Company PNACO 1.0 Name Pishgaman Nano 0.15
Product p2a 0.85 Product p2b 0.96 Product p4 0.15
Product p9 0.15 Product p10 0.15
Process HEBM-1 0.85 Process DetSyn-1 0.96
Process MixOil-1 0.15 Process CoatToxin-1 0.15
Pathway PWY-nOil-c-1 0.85 Pathway PWY-nOil-f-1 0.1
5 Pathway PWY-ABT-1
Product p2a Nano Diamond Powder Category NDP Form
Powder Particle-size Fine (lt 50nm)
Product p4 Nano-Oil Category Nano-Oil
Product p9 LPNP Category LPNP
Product p10 Air-Born Toxin Category ABT
Process1 HEBM-1
Product1 p2a
Process2 MixOil-1
Product2 p4
PWY-nOil-c-1
Process1 DetSyn-1
Product1 p2b
Process2 MixOil-1
Product2 p4
PWY-nOil-f-1
Process1 HEBM-1
Product1 p9
Process2 CoatToxin-1
Product2 p10
PWY-ABT-1