The impact of media access on democracy

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The impact of media access on democracy

• Matt Bodnar Flemming Schneider Rhode

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Hypothesis

• H0 There is no relationship between media access
  and levels of democracy
• H1 There is a relationship between media access
  and democracy
• We predict a moderate positive relationship
  between media access and democracy.

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Hypothesis II

• H0 There is no relationship between media access
  and democracy in China
• H1 There is a relationship between media access
  and democracy in China
• We predict a moderate negative relationship
  between media access and democracy in China

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Importance to Policy Analysis

• Democracy promotion key part of U.S. Foreign
  Policy
• Conclusive findings could suggest alternative
  foreign policy strategies

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Literature Review

• Best Wade - The Internet and Democracy Global
  Catalyst or Democratic Dud?
• McChesney Rich Media, Poor Democracy
• Kalathil, Shanthi Dot.Com for Dictators
• Chase, Mulvenon - Youve Got Dissent!
• Franda, Marcus Launching into Cyberspace
• Lynch, David After the Propaganda State

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Defining Our Variables

• Democracy We created a variable to represent
  democracy by taking the raw data scores from
  Freedom House for a states Political and Civil
  Liberties.
• Each state was given between 1 and 60 points (60
  being the most free) for Civil Liberties
• Each state was given between 1 and 40 points (40
  being the most free) for Political Liberties
• Our Data for democracy therefore ranges from 1
  (being the absolute least free) to 100 (being the
  most free possible)
• Internet Access We used the World Banks World
  Development Indicators to create a variable
  measuring Internet Users per 1000 people.
• Media Access We attempted to gather data
  regarding Newspapers per capita and the
  percentage of Televisions per household from the
  World Development Indicators, but the data was
  sparse and lacking in several areas.
• Censorship We used the Freedom House Freedom of
  the Press indicators to create a censorship scale
  ranging from 1(no censorship at all) to 100
  (complete censorship).
• GDP Per Capita We used World Bank Data to
  compile a list of GDP per capita for each nation
  using base year 2000.

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Variable Interaction
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Datasets

• WDI datasets
• Newspapers per capita
• of households with TV
• Internet users pr. 1000 capita
• Freedom House raw data scores for
• Freedom of the press
• Democracy (CL and PR)
• World.sav
• CIA World Factbook

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Methodology

• Unit of Analysis Nations
• Research Design Cross Sectional
• Multiple Regression Analysis
• Control variables Censorship GDP Per Capita
• Qualitative research on China, with small
  quantitative comparison
• N 110

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Distribution of Internet access
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Distribution of TV access
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Regression Results Internet Access
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Regression Results Graphically
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Regression with control for GDP Per Capita
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Regression with control for GDP Per Capita and
Censorship
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Case Study of China
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Case Study of China
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China Case Study
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China Case Study
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Case Study Qualitative Analysis

• Has the Internet fostered Democracy in China?
• Chinese Government Tactics
• Censorship Great Firewall of China
• Corporate Help Google, Yahoo, Wikipedia
• Dissidents
• Short timeframe
• Ambiguous Results

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Problems with data

• Countries with 100 cant improve democratically
  within FH rankings
• Internet Disproportionately weighted
• No data for newspapers or cell phones
• Small N for TV access
• Censorship a very ambiguous and biased concept.
  No measurement for self censorship

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Conclusions

• Accept H0 No relationship on a global level
• Previous studies disguised the type of
  information provided
• Very Complex Issue intervening variables,
  simultaneity
• Short term vs. long term effect
• Accept H0 No clear uniform relationship
• Taiwan and Hong Kong has and will benefit more
  than mainland China
• Government has been very efficient in blocking
  damaging information to the general public while
  dissidents use media internally