WRAP 2004 Technical Work Elements

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WRAP 2004 Technical Work Elements

• Tom Moore
• March 24, 2004
• Air Managers Committee
• 308/309(g) Implementation Workgroup

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2004 WRAP Technical Work Elements

• Topics Today
• Attribution of Haze Project
• TOC-sponsored
• Emissions Inventories
• EDMS collaborative effort Emissions\Fire\Dust
  Forums
• Emissions Inventories Status focus on fire EIs
• Regional Modeling Center
• Source Apportionment based on interim 2002 EIs
• AQ Modeling Forum-sponsored
• Causes of Haze Assessment
• Ambient Monitoring Forum-sponsored

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2004 WRAP Technical Work Elements

• Start of technical and policy analysis path to
  Regional Haze Plans due by end of 2007
• Technical analyses to understand
• 2000-04 Baseline and 2064 natural conditions
• Reasonable Progress to national visibility goal
• Emissions reductions needed to achieve RP to 2018
• Technical Activities - what is going on now?

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2004 AoH Project Data Sources

• Source apportionment modeling simulations from
  the Regional Modeling Center
• Receptor-oriented source contribution analyses of
  aerosol and meteorological monitoring data from
  the Causes of Haze Assessment project
• Existing and refined emissions inventories from
  the Dust, Emissions, and Fire Forums
• Special-purpose source attribution studies such
  as BRAVO, et cetera
• EPA technical guidance documents and analyses
• Journal publications, and workshop/conference
  reports addressing emissions and visibility
  impairment

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2004 AoH Project Deliverables

• Identify
• Geographic source areas of emissions that
  contribute to impairment at each mandatory
  federal and tribal Class I area
• Mass and species distributions of emissions by
  source categories within each contributing
  geographic source area
• The amount of natural and manmade emissions
  affecting each Class I area

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2004 AoH Project Deliverables

• Provide
• Documentation of the assumptions, methods, and
  uncertainties used in the integrated analyses of
  modeling, monitoring, and emissions data.
• Succinct, clear summaries for policymakers, of
  the estimated areas and sources of impairment for
  each Class I area, including the associated
  uncertainty

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AoH Project Schedule

• January March
• Organizational meeting March 29-30 workgroup
  page on WRAP website
• Develop scope of work for contractor support
  hire
• April June
• Review/discuss existing source attribution
  studies (BRAVO, et cetera)
• Contractor to identify data available for AoH
  project
• July September
• Review/discuss work products from RMC, CoHA, and
  EIs
• Assign expert review topics

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AoH Project Schedule

• October December
• Continue review/discussion of work products from
  RMC, CoHA, and EIs
• Review/discuss draft reports from expert
  reviewers
• Review first draft of AoH report prepared by
  contractor
• January 2005
• Publish final 2004 AoH report
• Make plan for subsequent workgroup activities

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Emissions Data Management System

• Regional data center to identify existing,
  projected, and future control levels of emissions
  (more detail later this morning)
• Provide a bucket to store state and tribal EIs,
  as basis of Regional Haze Plans
• Complete EI for WRAP region
• Provide modeling input files
• Under construction now, on-line late 2004
• www.pechan.com/edms

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EDMS Project 2004 - Phase 1

• Purpose
• Regional Haze Rule
• Implementation
• Performance Monitoring
• Region-Wide Emission Inventory
• Analysis of Collected Data
• Emissions Comparisons
• Emissions Trends Analysis

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EDMS Project 2004 - Phase 1
Need to add to map
Concepts GIS/Layers
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2002 Interim Emissions Inventories

• Existing EI Data from 309 work
• Mobile (on-road and non-road)
• Road Dust (paved and unpaved)
• Improved EI Data
• Point and Area from 1999 NEI (CENRAP WRAP)
• Ammonia
• Biogenics
• Windblown Dust
• EI Development Work
• Fire
• Mexico/Canada

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Fire EI Tasks (task notes on following slides,
resulting from discussions at 12/19/02 FEJF
meeting)
Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4
Due Date 4/04 8/04 1/05 5/05
Purpose 1) Model Evaluation 2) Test Apportionment WRAP Strategic Plan Phase I Apportionment Baseline Planning Apportionment 2018 Planning Apportionment
Product 2002 Wx 2002 Rx 2018 Ag BSM Final 2002 Wx Final 2002 Rx Final 2002 Ag 2000-04 Representative EI for all fire types 2018 Representative EI(s) for all fire types
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Task 1Modeling Evaluation EI - Fire

• 2002 actual Wildfire EI by April 2004
• 2002 actual Rx fire EI (using NIFC and other
  state electronic data to supplement emissions
  estimates) April 2004
• 2002 actual Ag fire EI (may use 2018 BSM for now)
• Used for model performance evaluation ambient
  monitoring data compared to model results
• Provides confidence in using model to
  characterize current and future years planning
  EIs
• Used to test geographic source apportionment
  effects at each Class I area, tribal reservation,
  or other geographic area
• Provides modeling estimate of contributions from
  each upwind source jurisdiction

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Task 2Initial Modeling Apportionment EI - Fire

• Start with Phase I 2002 actual EI(s)
• 2002 actual Wildfire EI - 8/2004
• 2002 actual Rx fire EI - 8/2004 (split natural
  versus anthropogenic)
• 2002 actual Ag fire EI - 8/2004
• For all 3 types of fire
• Used to complete Strategic Plan 2004 deliverable
  (geographic source apportionment) for TOC
  Attribution of Haze project
• Effects at each Class I area, tribal reservation,
  or other geographic area
• Modeling analysis of natural versus anthropogenic

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Task 3Planning Baseline Period EI - Fire

• Start/stay with Task 2 2002 EI format for
  consistency
• Use at least 2000-04 data, could be longer
  period, must be representative of regional haze
  baseline period
• Wildfire EI - 1/2005
• Rx fire EI - 1/2005
• Ag fire EI - 1/2005
• To construct these EIs
• Consult with states tribes on smoke management
  programs
• Other considerations?

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Task 4Planning 2018 Projection Year EI - Fire

• Stay with Task 3 Baseline Planning 2002 EI format
  for consistency
• Base projections on predictable variables, may
  only provide ranges or scenarios of emissions
• Wildfire EI - 5/2005
• Rx fire EI - 5/2005
• Ag fire EI - 5/2005
• To construct these EIs
• Consult with states tribes on smoke management
  programs
• Other considerations?

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2004 Regional Modeling Center Workplan

• The Air Quality Modeling Forum has two major
  areas of activity planned for 2004
• The Regional Modeling Center (RMC) will continue
  to operate and will implement many of the tools
  and improvements developed in 2003.
• The RMC will use the same team of contractors
  (UCR, ENVIRON, CEP) that have been used for the
  past 2 years
• The final work plan is being amended into the
  existing RMC contract.
• The second major area of activity is to initiate
  modeling for Class I areas in Alaska.

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2004 Regional Modeling Center Workplan

• Major Elements
• Project Administration
• 2002 year MM5 Modeling data for now and later
• 2002 Interim Base Emissions Inventory
  processing
• CMAQ Runs Evaluation based on modeling
  protocol
• Source Apportionment (described later)
• Natural vs. Anthropogenic Analysis
• Windblown Fugitive Dust Model
• Fire Sensitivity
• Fire De Minimus
• Alaska Modeling
• Lesser Elements
• Emissions Speciation
• Model Performance Software
• Comparison of Alternate Models (AQ meteorology)
• As needed
• Training

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Gridded Dispersion Modeling - Source Apportionment

• Project Manager - Gail Tonnesen, University of
  California, Riverside
• Regional Modeling Center Team
• University of California, Riverside
• ENVIRON Corporation
• Carolina Environmental Programs at University of
  North Carolina
• http//pah.cert.ucr.edu/rmc/

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Motivation

• Need to understand which emissions sources
  contribute to haze and other pollutants.
• Europeans call these Blame Matrices
• Use this information to assist in developing
  control strategies.

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Modeling Approaches

• Sensitivity Studies
• Brute Force Zero-in or Zero-out a single source.
• DDM Sensitivity efficient but non-linear.
• Use tracers or tagged species to track mass
  from a source type
• UCR and ENVIRON are implementing similar tracer
  algorithms in CMAQ and CAMx.
• Modeling back-trajectories.
• Chemical Mass Balance (CMB).
• Hybrid Approaches OSAT
• Uses tracers to track O3 formation that was
  sensitive to VOC or NOx.

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Tagged Species Approach

• Use Tagged Species tracers to track chemical
  transformations and the movement and chemical
  conversion of mass across domain.
• Add source type tracers for key species and for
  defined regions and source categories.
• Outputs 3-D fields showing transport of secondary
  species.
• Also outputs bar plots showing contributions at
  each receptor site.

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Chemical Transformations

• Emissions are as NOx NO NO2
• Use integrated reaction rates at each time step
  to update the tagged species
• NOX ? PAN
• NOX ? Organic NO3
• NOX ? HNO3
• HNO3 ? Aerosol NO3

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Tagged Species for Nitrates

• NOX reactive N family.
• NO, NO2, NO3, 2N2O5, HONO, PNA
• HNO3
• PAN
• Organic NO3
• Aerosol NO3

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Traced Area WRAP Modeling Domain
Source Area Mapping File Each state is
distinguished by a unique number
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Transport Loss Terms

• Use CMAQ transport solvers for advection and
  dispersion of each tracer.
• Also update for mass export in cloud and aqueous
  chemistry algorithms.
• Update tagged species for emissions and
  deposition terms.
• Check for mass conservation at each step and
  adjust mass if needed. Halt if large errors.

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Traced Source Tags
Types Source Category Notes
ICON ICON Initial Concentration
BCON BCON Boundary Concentration
Emissions MV_ Mobile sources from any state (on-road)
Emissions BG_ Biogenic sources from any state
Emissions RD_ Paved unpaved road dust from any state
Emissions NR_ Non-road sources from any state
Emissions PN_ Point sources from any state
Emissions AR_ Area sources from any state
Emissions WF_ Wildland fire from any state
Emissions AG_ Agricultural fire from any state
Emissions RX_ Prescribed fire from any state
Emissions ET_ Total emissions from any state
Emissions _WRAP Any type of source category emissions from WRAP domain
Others OTHERS Any sources other than all of the above
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Contributions to Aerosol NO3 at Yosemite
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Causes of Haze Assessment Project

• Project Manager Mark Green, Desert Research
  Institute
• 4-year project 2004 is year 2
• CoHA Team DRI other analysts
• http//coha.dri.edu
• Userid dri-coha
• Password hazeyweb

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CoHA Approach
Determine causes of haze at WRAP and CENRAP Class
I areas, tribal and selected CENRAP IMPROVE
protocol sites
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CoHA Study Data

• Began analysis of 1997 to 2002 IMPROVE and
  protocol database
• Primarily using IMPROVE and protocol sites with
  full speciation data in the study region (118
  sites by December 2002)
• Using nationwide network of 158 sites (end of
  2002) to establish continental and regional
  setting

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CoHA not just computing statistics, but forming
conclusions regarding the causes of the haze

• First complete a set of descriptive analyses,
  maps, and other graphics for aerosol composition,
  spatial and temporal variation, emissions, land
  use, topographic effects, transport patterns,
  local wind patterns etc
• Do episode analyses to determine likely causes of
  haze for various commonly and uncommonly
  occurring conditions
• Using above resources form conceptual models of
  causes of haze and assign quantitative number
  based on frequency of occurrence of conditions

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Causes of Haze likely to be segregated by
compound of interest, e.g. sulfate and by
geographic area - by source type as possible

• Example
• Sulfate causes 50 of aerosol haze at Area A -
  60 of which is generated within the WRAP area,
  mainly in the states of B,C,and D, 20 is
  transported into the RPO from states to the east
  of WRAP and mainly in summer, and 20 from other
  countries (mostly Country F). Based upon
  emissions inventory, it is estimated that 80 of
  the sulfate haze is due to source type G.
• Nitrate is X of the haze, 50 of which
• Carbon, coarse mass - probably more difficult

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The Causes of Haze web site is online now in
a DRAFT, password protected form http//coha.dri.
edu Username dri-coha Password hazeyweb
Much of the web site is a shell ready to receive
data and causes of haze information that we
generate
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Aerosol Descriptive Analysis

• Provides answers to the questions
• For the years 1997-2002, how many measurements
  are available for the site in each month of each
  year, and what are the contributions of the major
  aerosol components to light extinction in each
  month of each year?
• What is the overall average light extinction at
  the site, and what are the contributions of the
  major aerosol components to the light extinction?
• What are the light extinction contributions by
  the major aerosol components for best, worst and
  average days and how do they compare?
• What percentage of the sampling days are the
  worst days in each month how variable are the
  chemical components?

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Sample Aerosol Description Page
Overall average light extinction and
contributions of major aerosol chemical
components to light extinction
Average contributions of major aerosol chemical
components to light extinction in 20 best,
middle 60 and 20 worst days
Percentage of sampling days that are 20 worst
days in each month
Average contributions of major aerosol chemical
components to light extinction during 20 worst
days in each month
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Meteorological Emissions Descriptive Analysis

• Archived monitoring network locations, climate,
  emissions, wildfires, census, political,
  physical, and image databases
• Information from these databases are helping us
  build conceptual models and answer descriptive
  analysis questions by visualizing data (e.g. map
  emissions densities)
• Assist us in the general and detailed description
  of the meteorological setting of each site
• Creating maps of emissions surrounding each site
  at two scales 2 km and 20 km- Regional emission
  maps to be added
• Include table of surrounding point sources ranked
  by distance and emission rate

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20 Km terrain
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2 Km terrain
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Trajectory Analysis Status

• Three years (2000-2002), three heights (10, 500,
  1500m), every three hours, 8 days back
• HYSPLIT v4.6 model calculations done for all
  sites
• Trajectory output processed and stored in
  database
• Trajectory tool developed to produce ASCII
  summary files and convert trajectories into shape
  files
• Generate summary maps
• Generate monthly and annual residence time maps,
  20 best, 20 worst extinction, conditional
  probability
• Finalizing process to generate all maps, all
  sites in one batch- should be done late February

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Episode Analysis

• Use combination of back trajectory, synoptic,
  mesoscale meteorological analysis, aerosol and
  emissions data to conceptually understand single
  site and regional or sub-regional episodes of
  high aerosol component concentrations
• Systematic survey of episodes from the 1997 to
  2002 IMPROVE database

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Hazagon Analysis

• The hazagon provides a way to visualize speciated
  extinction for those sites in the 20 worst
  category

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Future Phases

• Evaluation of EDAS wind field used for back
  trajectory analysis when adequate, when
  misleading- possible use of MM5 or diagnostic
  wind fields for trajectory analysis for some
  sites
• Mesoscale meteorological analysis trajectory
  analysis? Needed for sites in complex/coastal
  setting affected by mesoscale source areas
• Triangulation of back trajectories for worst case
  days to better identify source areas
• Regression analysis of back trajectories, aerosol
  data for quantitative attribution to regions-
  Trajectory Mass Balance Regression
• Refinement of conceptual models