Discovery Challenge

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Discovery Challenge ECML/PKDD2004September 20,
2004, Pisa, ItalyAtherosclerosis

• Marie Tomecková
• EuroMISE Centre Cardio
• Institute of Computer Science, Academy of
  Sciences of the CR, Prague, The Czech Republic
• Supported by the project LN00B107 of the Ministry
  of Education of the Czech Republic

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Atherosclerosis

• a total complicated disease of the vessels in all
  organism
• a dynamic process, it begins in childhood and
  adolescence and continues for the whole life
• opinions on the origin and progress of the
  disease are developing
• interaction and influence of genetic
  predisposition and exterior environment
• the influence of so-called risk factors is still
  regarded
• On the other hand there some so-called
  protective factors

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Risk factors of atherosclerosis

• non-affectable sex, age, family history
• affectable
• factors of life style
• physical activity
• smoking
• reaction on stress
• blood pressure, metabolic factors - level of
  lipids and glucose, homocystein
• many other factors coagulopathies, infections,
  inflammation, factors changing the function of
  endothelium, social and psychological factors
• combinations, clustering and interactivity
  Reavens syndrom

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STULONG(acronym)

• LONGitudinal twenty years lasting STUdy of risk
  factors of atherosclerosis
• The study was realized in the years 1975-2000 on
  the 2nd Dept. of Internal Medicine, 1st Faculty
  of Medicine of Charles University, Prague, the
  Czech Republic
• The data were transferred to the electronic form
  by the European Centre of Medical Informatics,
  Statistisc, and Epidemiology of Charles
  University and Academy of Sciences of the Czech
  Republic

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STULONG

• Main aims of the study
• To determine prevalence of the risk factors of
  atherosclerosis in middle-aged men
• To follow up the development of the risk factors
• To asses the possibilities and the influence of
  the complex intervention on the incidence and
  values of the risk factors and on the
  cardiovascular mortality

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Population

• urban population of middle-aged men (centre of
  Prague)
• 2370 men have been invited
• 1417 men have been examined, the respondence was
  59
• Middle-aged men it is the population mostly
  threatened by the atherosclerosis and by its
  consequenses

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Definition of risk factors

• blood pressure ? 160/95 mm Hg
• cholesterol ? 260 mg (6,7 mmol/l)
• smoking ? 15 cigarettes/day
• obesity ? 15 above optimal weight
• positive family history prematured death on the
  atherosclerotic diseases (parents, siblings)

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STULONG - analysis

• Statistical - descriptive statistics
• - logistic regression
• - survival analysis
• Data mining - different methods
• - resulting in
  different conclusions

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Basic characteristics of men in STULONG (risk
group - at least 1 RF, without the disease))

• Prevalence of risk factors at the entry

RF n
hypercholesterolemia 290 34.2
hypertension 287 34.0
smoking 543 63.3 !!!
obesity 196 23.0
positive family history 216 25.3
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Prevalence of risk factors in risk group
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Basic characteristics of men in STULONG(risk
group, age 46.13.6)
mean s ()
Nr of RF 1.7 2.0
cholesterol (mmol/l) 6.25 5.4
systolic blood pressure (mm Hg) 134.4 67.3
diastolic blood pressure (mm Hg) 85.3 47.5
Nr of cig/day 9.4 25.0
Brocca index () 106.8 47.4
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Mortality depending on the number of
RF(atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases)
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Survival analysis
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The relative risk of death caused by
atheroslcerotic CVD
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Discovery Challenges

• Atherosclerosis growing number of the papers
• 2002 Helsinki .5 papers
• 2003 Cavtat 9 papers
• 2004 Pisa .. 11 papers

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Four data files foranalysis data mining

• Entry - attributes obtained from entry
  examination 1417 men 244 attributes of each
  men
• Control attributes recorded during the follow
  up (changing of the social and health status,
  values of follow risk factors, therapy ) 10
  600 investigations each with 66 attributes
• Letter additional information collected at the
  end of the study by the postal questionnaire
  (men, who disscharged the following) - 403 men
  62 attributes of each men
• Death date and cause of death 389 men

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Four groups of analytic questions

• Related to
• the entry examination
• the long - term observation follow-up
• the postal questionnaire at the end of the
  study
• the relations concerning entry examination,
  control examination, and death

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Approaches to solve the analytic questions
1given in the past Discovery Challenges

• Univariated and bivariated data analysis
• Assiciation rules
• SDS rules (Set Differs of Set)
• Trend analysis
• Time windows analysis
• ROC analysis
• Disciminate function

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Approaches to solve the analytic questions 2

• Fuzzy approximate dependencies, fuzzy logic
• Functional dependencies
• Inductive logic programming technigue
• Explicit relations
• The selection of the strongest emerging patterns
• Genetic approach
• Approach to generate a mathematical algebraic
  model

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Analytic guestions - some results

• Protective influence of number of the visits
• Protective influence of the beer drinking, but
  not of the wine drinking
• Correlation of Body Mass Index with the skin
  foldes very good discrimination of the three
  basic groups of men (normal, risk, pathological)

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Further use and publications of the STULONG data

• are possible only under the condition of the
  following explicit quotation
• The study (STULONG) was realized at the 2nd
  Department of
• Internal Medicine, 1st Faculty of Medicine of
  Charles University
• and University Hospital, Prague 2, Czech Republic
  (head Prof.
• M. Aschermann, MD, SDr, FECS), under the
  supervision of Prof.
• F. Boudík, MD, SDr, with the collaboration of M.
  Tomecková, MD,
• PhD, and Ass. Prof. J. Bultas, MD, PhD. The data
  were transferred
• to the electronic form by the European Centre of
  Medical Informatics,
• Statistisc, and Epidemiology of Charles
  University and Academy of
• Sciences of Czech Republic (head Prof. RNDr J.
  Zvárová, SDr).
• At present time, the data analysis is supported
  by the project Nr.
• LN 00B 107 of the Ministry of Education of the CR.

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• Thank you
• for your effort in the STULONG data set analysis
  and for your attention
• 
  Marie Tomecková
• 
  EuroMISE Centre Cardio
• 
  Pod Vodárenskou veží 2
• 
  182 07 Prague, The Czech Republic
• tomeckova_at_euromise.cz
• http//www.euromise.cz