Ben Cashore

1
The Shaping and Reshaping of British Columbia
Forest Policy in the Global Era A Review of
Governmental and Non-governmental Strategic
Initiatives

• Ben Cashore
• Associate Professor,
• Environmental Governance and Sustainable Forest
  Policy
• Director, Program on Forest Policy and Governance
• School of Forestry and Environmental Studies
• Yale University
• Keynote Presentation to BC Forestry Professionals
  Conference and Annual General Meeting, Feb. 22,
  2006, Victoria, BC
• (Slightly revised Feb. 26, 2006)

2
Overview

• Outline my overall approach to policy analysis
• Identify key challenges facing British Columbia
  forestry in the global context
• Review analytical framework
• Review research findings across six different
  policy arenas
• Justify our argument that, in the global era, BC
  forestry professionals are in a unique position
  to champion, and lead, proactive approaches to
  problem solving

3
Cashore Lens/approach

• I am a political scientist
• I describe and explain forest policy preferences
  among governments, firms, and environmental
  groups
• I have compared (with colleagues) British
  Columbias and the United States forest policy
  development over time
• And I compare Canada and the United States with
  Europe, Australia and developing countries
• I do not take sides!
• Everyone thinks I am taking the other groups
  side
• I do try to reflect on whether win win
  solutions might exist

4
Why would a political scientist be speaking to
forestry professionals?

• You know way more about how forest function
• On the ground experience
• Science of sustainable forestry
• Importance of aboriginal knowledge
• Political scientists try to predict behavior
• Old saying, where you stand depends upon where
  you sit
• We think we can predict your responses to outside
  pressures!
• Structure versus agency

5
Lets conduct an experiment

• Imagine two groups
• Association of BC Forest Professionals
• Greenpeace
• Of these two groups, which organization best fits
  your own values?
• How many say ABCFP?
• How many Greenpeace?
• Your response proves that political scientists
  Rock! We can predict what you said before you
  said it
• Our argument to address big complex challenges
  you need to become unpredictable!

6
Challenges Facing Professional Foresters in
Global Era

• You know challenges better than any group
• Economic challenges extraordinary
• Growth of China reshaping forest markets
• Russia vast untapped resource
• Tropics growing wood faster
• Illegal logging
• Consolidation of forest companies
• Will firms flee to less regulated areas of the
  world?
• Social aspects of forestry worrisome
• Forest dependent communities?
• Place-based knowledge and stewardship?
• Will communities be shut down?

7
Challenges Facing Professional Foresters in
Global Era

• Environmental challenges extraordinary in
  breadth, depth, and complexity
• Endangered species
• Deforestation

• Uncertainty -- We put a hole in the ozone layer
  without knowing it
• What about current impacts we dont know about?
• Arguably biggest challenge is climate
• Will be devastating
• Extent is uncertain

8
Top Five Warmest Years World Wide Since 1890s

• 2005
• 1998
• 2002
• 2003
• 2004

Source National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space
Studies (GISS)
9
What this has meant Glaciers are melting
10
What This Has Meant Fungi and Frogs

• Have learned that climate change, among other
  factors, is endangering frogs in many tropical
  countries
• Why?
• Fungal disease that has gained strength by
  climate
• My colleague, David Skelly, studies frogs because
  they provide insights into complex systems
• Canary in the coal mine

11
Endangered Frogs Around World
12
Endangered Frogs British Columbia/Canada
13
Climate Change Weve Only seen the beginning

• The intergovernmental panel on climate change
  warns of catastrophic events if we warm the
  planet more than 2 degrees Celsius
• Implications are profound
• Malte Meinshausen et al., "Multi-Gas Emission
  Pathways To Meet Climate Targets," Climatic
  Change (2005)."Achieving climate targets that
  account for disintegrating ice  sheets or for
  large scale extinction risks almost certainly
  requires substantial and near term emission
  reductions

14
How Do We Want to Respond to these Complex
Economic, Social and Environmental Challenges?

• Do we want to react as the story unfolds?
• Do we want to focus on specific pieces of the
  puzzle
• What factors do we want to take into account when
  thinking about policy choices?
• Before answer this lets review what we did

15
What did we do?

• Brought together research team from
• Yale Program on Forest Policy and Governance
• Connie McDermott postdoctoral research associate
• Kelly Levin, Doctoral student
• With
• Graeme Auld, Doctoral student
• Deanna Newsom, forest policy and certification
  analyst
• Developed framework with which to assess
  strategic behavior in complex environment
• Analyzed existing data and conducted new research

16
Classification Framework for Responding to
External Pressure
1) Internal Decision Making Processes
Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through
Short Term (Few Variables)
Long Term (Many variables)
2) Response to Pressure
Compromise (Half/half)
Resist (Win/lose)
Innovative (win/win)
Acquiesce (Lose/Win)
17
Research Paper Applied to Key Issues Areas
Issues
Categories
18
Research Paper Analyzed

• We looked at
• Government
• Industry
• Environmental groups
• Broad historical and comparative review
• Over 100 single spaced pages
• Positions future research to assess/test our
  argument/findings
• General picture emerges

19
Results Strategic Approach to Forest Policy
Development

• In general, groups predictable
• Narrow short term interest
• Environmental groups push for increased
  environmental protection
• Used market campaigns

• Industry emphasizes economic development,
  business friendly policy environment.
• Government tries to balance these interests
• Fluctuates depending on political party in power,
  relative strength of market campaigns
• Forest professionals are caught in the middle

20
The BC Regulatory Environment in Comparison

• What has been the result of this strategic
  activity for content of regulations?
• Fluctuates
• We can turn to our 2004 global report for a
  snapshot of BC in comparison
• No time to review in detail read the book!
• Here are some examples of what we uncovered

21
Results Forest Regulations in 20 countries

• Riparian buffer zone sizes 30 metre wide streams

22
Results Forest Regulations

• Riparian buffer zone 1 meter wide streams, no
  fish

23
Results Forest Clearcut Size Restrictions
Canada-US jurisdictions
24
Analytical Framework Placing Domestic Forest
Regulations
Domestic forest regulations
Strategic Long Term
Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through
Strategic Short Term
25
Results Canada-US Softwood lumber trade dispute

• Quarter century old dispute
• Far to complex to discuss in one slide
• Overall trends
• Seat of pants to narrow strategic
• Some well intentioned efforts but
• Canada is not in drivers seat
• Déjà vu all over again
• US highly strategic
• First criticized stumpage policy (1982, 86)
• Then added raw log export restrictions (1991)
• Then added dumping charges (2001)
• Now launching constitutional challenge of NAFTA
  panels

26
Analytical Framework Overall placement of
Response to Softwood lumber
Canada-US Softwood lumber dispute
Strategic Long Term
Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through
Strategic Short Term
27
Results Efforts to Develop International Code

• Overall Canada has been championing and
  international code for almost 20 years
• Strategic self interest?
• Feel they are regulated more than competitors
• International code could create level playing
  field
• However, almost every other country was focused
  on their own self interest
• Result is stalemate, fragmentation
• Impact on the ground?

28
Analytical Framework Global Forest Code
Global Forest Code
Strategic Long Term
Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through
Strategic Short Term
29
Results Efforts to Combat Illegal Logging

• Illegal logging widespread in tropics
• Several interests coincide
• Economic
• Environmental
• Government
• Potential therefore for win win strategic
  efforts
• There are four Regional Forest Law Enforcement
  and Governance (FLEG) processes established
• Canada most active in Russia-focused FLEG
• Canada has strategic self interest
• Russia is competitor
• Its logging poses environmental challenges
• Question
• Could these processes help build multi-lateral
  forest code at regional scale? Could it uncover
  win win?

30
Analytical Framework Illegal logging
Efforts to curb Illegal logging
Strategic Long Term
Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through
Strategic Short Term
31
Results Climate change

• Canada did ratify Kyoto protocol
• Strong debate between what environmental groups
  asking and what industry is proposing. Governing
  caught in middle
• Meantime Canada has increased its emissions 24
  since 1990
• Canada has Action Plan, but no stringent national
  policies
• On other hand we see some strategic/proactive
  industry FPAC/efforts
• Forest Products Association MOU with government
  established 15 industry reduction target
• FPAC reports 44 reduction in emissions intensity
• BC has progressive climate change action plan,
  however consists only of goals that have yet to
  be codified into law
• Individual firms have reduced emissions as
  consistent with cost savings
• In sum, most efforts short term strategic. Fail
  to address gravity of problem
• Forestry could play special role in future since
  Pine Beetle shows it is heavily impacted by the
  problem.

32
Analytical Framework Climate
Climate Change
Strategic Long Term
Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through
Strategic Short Term
33
Forest Certification

• Also complex story
• www.governingthroughmarkets.com
• Overall short term strategic hints of long term
• In BC, industry showed some interest in Forest
  Stewardship Council
• Might get market advantage for regulatory changes
  in 1990s
• Environmental groups understandably focused on
  increasing standards
• Most BC companies have not opted for FSC

34
Forest Certification

• But Strong support for forest certification in
  general
• Forest Products Association of Canada more
  proactive than US counterparts
• Requires members undergo third party
  certification according to FSC, or CSA or SFI

35
Area certified by Country Certification system
36
Area Certified by Region and Certification system
37
Forest Certification

• Strong divisions remain between FSC supporters on
  one hand, and CSA, SFI on the other
• Biggest promise of certification collaborative
  problem focused learning has yet to be fully
  realized.

38
Analytical Framework Forest Certification
Forest Certification
Strategic Long Term
Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through
Strategic Short Term
39
Analytical Framework Decision Continuum
according to Key Issue Areas
Efforts to curb Illegal logging
Domestic forest regulations
Global Forest Code
Canada-US Softwood lumber dispute
Forest Certification
Climate Change
Strategic Long Term
Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through
Strategic Short Term
40
Analytical Framework Where We Believe Decisions
Ought to Be Located
Efforts to curb Illegal logging
Domestic forest regulations
Global Forest Code
Canada-US Softwood lumber dispute
Forest Certification
Climate Change
Strategic Long Term
Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through
Strategic Short Term (California or Delaware
effect)
41
Analysis Racing to the Top or the Bottom?

• How ought organizations act?
• Can forces of globalization be harnessed to
  produce win win solutions?
• How can we ratchet up problem solving efforts?

42
1) Encourage the California Effect (Vogel)

• Phenomenon where business in regulated markets
  see a self interest in having their competitors
  equally regulated.
• Leads to upward global standard.
• Prerequisite active environmental and social
  NGOs
• Spark initial regulations and then encourage them
  elsewhere
• Under this analysis conflict between NGOs and
  industry healthy
• Interaction leads to win win
• Huge potential in case of global forest code
• Yet to be realized

43
2) Discourage the Delaware Effect

• Phenomenon when firms flee to less regulated
  regions of the world lax standards, wages, and
  so on.
• Companies fleeing to Indonesia or Malyasia or
  from US Pacific Northwest to US Southeast,
  example of this.
• In these cases, economic globalization is bad for
  environment and social protections

44
3) Think Long-Term Strategic

• The accelerating pace of change means California
  effect, by itself, cannot possibly hope to deal
  with complex situations
• Need multi-stakeholder collaborative learning
  linking proposed solutions to problems in
  positive feedback loops
• Examples already exist
• Right here!

45
Strategic Long Term BC Examples
Joint Science Collaborative processes
Spirit Bear initiative
Clayoquot Sound Processes
a new way of thinking about how you do
forestry This collaboration is something we
have to take into the future, and it is something
the world can learn from." Premier Gordon
Campbell
Commission on Resources and the Environment
Strategic Long Term
Seat of Pants/ Bumbling Through
Strategic Short Term
46
How Can We Facilitate Long-Term Strategic Efforts?

• We think the way out is development of brand new
  institutions existing ones not doing the job.
• Offer these as food for thought

47
Analysis Create Forward Looking Institutions

• BC center for strategic forest policy
• non-partisan research and dissemination of BCs
  forest policies
• Encourage collaborative learning across
  stakeholders

48
Analysis Create Forward Looking Institutions

• Canada-US forestry Commission
• Assess important questions surrounding softwood
  dispute.
• Could remove fuel from softwood fire

49
Analysis Create Forward Looking Institutions

• 3) World Forest Organization
• A global forest organization focused on policy
  learning and environmental monitoring
• Could shift global forestry efforts away from
  strategic short term calculations to long term
  learning about on-the-ground environmental
  performance.