World Bank Research and the Singapore Meetings

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World Bank Research and the Singapore Meetings

• L. Alan WintersDirectorDevelopment Research
  Group

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New thinking about development in a nutshell

• Poverty reduction
• Growth is a necessary condition
• Global interdependence
• Institutions and governance
• Market and state are complementary.
• Development is country-specific.
• Systematic evaluation of policies
• Lack of access to opportunities is inefficient.

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Lending, learning, and knowledge
DevelopmentCommunity
More aid and lending is channeled through the
Bank because of its analytical capacity and its
voice in the global debate
Better knowledge of development issues increases
volume and quality of lending
Bank research generates findings and products
that form the core of global knowledge on
development
Lending and aid monitoring produce important
lessons of development
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Impact of research

• Operational activities e.g.
• Data and analytic tools developed for poverty
  analysis
• New lines of Bank business
• Moving away from some forms of intervention
• Advocacy role on global issues Trade, Doha Round
  
• Influences world opinion, research agendas and
  policy priorities.

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Evidence of impact

• Quality and effectiveness of Bank operations
  increased by
• high-quality analytical work
• inclusion of researchers in team
• Shaping lending strategies and operations.
• Bank staff rely on DECs outputs
• Tools e.g. 1-2-3 PETS
• Impact on policy makers
• in developing countries.
• In developed countries e.g. trade talks, ODA
  policies
• Impact on academic community

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Citations Per Article Economics, Business and
Social Sciences Journals
Number of Number of Average cites papers
cites per paper All papers 134,887
230,400 1.71 World Bank 1,135
4,121 3.63 DECRG 520 2,194
4.22 Source ISI Thomson Scientific Database,
1998-2003.
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Organizing research

• Outsourcing?
• Much, but need internal capacityDirection,
  access, nature, resource
• Split 50/50 central vs. decentralized
• Specialization vs. competition and responsiveness
• DEC researchers circulate in the Bank

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DEC Research Group

• About 80 researchers
• walks on two legs
• Excellence prerequisite for effectiveness
• DEC research evolves slowly
• Complements research done outside DEC and the
  Bank
• Part of the international development research
  community

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Criteria The PIPPA Code

• Research should
• be path-breaking
• have complete integrity
• be policy-relevant
• be practical
• be accessible and communicated clearly

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DECRG Thematic teams

• International Trade
• Growth and Investment
• Finance
• Poverty Dynamics Pro-Poor Growth
• Public Service Delivery and Human Development
• Rural Development
• Environment and Infrastructure

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Recent additions to the research program

• Growth and equity
• Global issues
• Impact evaluation

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Growth and equity

• Investment climate
• Access to finance
• Urbanization and agglomeration
• Debt, financial crises
• Pro-poor growth

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Growth and equity II

• Public Services for the Poor
• Provider Behavior
• Political Economy
• Progress toward the MDGs
• Aid effectiveness
• Equity and development
• WDR 2006

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Global issues

• International trade
• Migration
• Brain Drain
• Temporary mobility of labor
• Measuring the flows
• Relation to trade and FDI flows
• Remittances
• Security and development
• Development, terrorism and drug trafficking
• Conflict and Post-conflict development

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Evaluation of policy impact

• Causal links between interventions and outcomes -
  counterfactual
• Randomized trials, e.g. in education, health,
  infrastructure, or cash transfers
• Policies with economy-wide impact (e.g. trade,
  financial reforms)macro-micro links

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China and India

• Over 40 percent of world population
• Growing rapidly global phenomenon
• Federal
• Data availability
• Local capacity
• Different models of development

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Recent research on China

• Investment climate
• 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005/6
• Poverty reduction and inequality
• Pro-poor growth
• Poor area program, social protection
• Survey compliance
• Poverty mapping
• WTO accession

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Recent research on China II

• Financial Sector
• General policy
• Deposit insurance
• Efficiency of credit allocation
• Property rights vs. access to finance
• Environment
• Industrial pollution disclosure
• Health damage
• Water provision

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Recent research on India

• Investment climate
• Round 3 panel policy changes
• Informal firms
• Urban policy
• Slum dwellers
• Productivity in cities
• Road safety
• Rural-urban migration

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Recent research on India II

• Service delivery
• Absenteeism
• Incentives, information
• Decentralisation
• Nutritional programs
• Community driven development
• Local democracy
• Caste (including experiments)
• Employment guarantee

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Singapore 2006

• China and India in the global economy
• Lessons
• Comparisons
• Effects on rest of the world
• Thematic Studies
• Regional Studies
• Collaborative regional researchers

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Thematic studies

• Growth urbanization and jobs
• International Trade
• Resources and Emissions
• Domestic and international savings
• Governance patterns
• Poverty and inequality (regional)