Revision Analysis Annual and Quarterly GDP

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Revision Analysis Annual and Quarterly GDP
szani_at_ibge.gov.br
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Publishing revision analysis
Although we make revisions in the series of the
annual and quarterly accounts at the moment, we
do not make a deeper analysis of these revisions.
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• For each quarter there are two publications of
  the National
• Accounts.
• Volume indices released 60 days after the end of
  each quarter,
• with the series of Brazilian GDP volume indices
• Current values released 90 days after the end of
  the quarter.
• There is no revision for volume series.

When the annual revision is released the
quarterly figures are adjusted with the annual
data. This adjustment is always made in the
publication of the 3rd quarter.
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Revision policies

• Quarterly Accounts
• Base Sum of the four quarters of the year i-1.

1st quarter of the year i - May of the year
i. 2nd quarter of the year i - Aug of the year i.
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Revision policies

• Base Preliminary Annual Accounts of the year i-1
  - Nov of the year i.

• Revision
• Adjustment of the quarters of the year i-1 using
  the DENTON Method.
• 1st quarter of the year i - Nov of the year i.
• 2nd quarter of the year i - Nov of the year i.

• Incorporation of better source data
• Improvements
• Correction of errors

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Revision policies
The sum of the four quarters of the year is the
first estimate of the GDP volume index of the
year i. This is done in Feb of the year i1.
The 3rd and 4th quarters are not revised, they
change according to the Denton Adjustment.
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Revision policies

• Annual Accounts

Preliminary Accounts of the year i - Nov of the
year i1.
Incorporation of information of household
survey. This allows an estimate of the informal
economy or data not covered by annual industry
surveys. Comparison with the income
accounts. Revisions of the other data.
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Revision policies
Semi definitive accounts of the year i - Nov of
the year i2.
Definitive Accounts of the year i - Nov of the
year i3.
Incorporation of more complete data (balance
sheets, corporate data) and correction of errors
in source data.
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Summary
Revision policies.
Annual Accounts
Year i Preliminary Accounts of the year
i-1. Semi definitive Accounts of the year
i-2. Definitive Accounts of the year i-3.
Quarterly Accounts
This adjustment is always made in the publication
of the 3rd quarter.
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Users demands
In general,the user accepts the adjustment of
quarterly accounts with the annual accounts.
In general, they have difficulty in understanding
the revisions in the rates, quarter on the
immediately previous quarter, due to seasonal
adjustment - X12-ARIMA.
The seasonal factors are estimates to each new
quarter and all the last estimates are reviewed.
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Users demands
We have noted a great improvement after we
started to present workshops explaining the
methods of the seasonal adjustment. This
procedure increases users confidence.
We have improved our methodology with feedback
from the user (personal interviews, seminars etc).
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Your feedback is most welcome. Please write
to Sheila Cristina Zani szani_at_ibge.gov.br
Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e
Estatística IBGE