IREM Forecast

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IREM Forecast
The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance
and Outlook
Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair
and University ProfessorDirector, Center for
Regional Analysis George Mason University

January 26, 2011
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Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five
Recessions
Change in GDP
Quarters After Trough
(2009 Recession has 6th Q added from GI Forecast)
Sources BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,
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Quarterly GDP Revisions Global Insight
Quarter July 2009 October 2010 January 2011
2009 Q1 -5.5 -4.9
Q2 -2.1 -0.7
Q3 0.6 1.6
Q4 1.1 5.0
2010 Q1 1.4 3.7
Q2 2.7 1.7
Q3 2.3 1.5 2.6
Q4 3.3 1.9 3.7
2011 Q1 2.2 2.2 3.8
Q2 2.2 3.1
Q3 2.7 2.4
Q4 3.7 3.3
Projected
Actual
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U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change
2006 2013

Forecast gt gt gt gt gt gt gt

2006 2007 2008 2009
2010 2011 2012 2013
Source Global Insight
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U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2007
December 2009
Ranked by Size in 2010
Total - 8,363,000
(000s)
Source BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally
Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2009
December 2010
Ranked by Size in 2010
(000s)
Total 1,124
Source BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally
Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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U.S. Unemployment Rate

9.4

• GI Fcst
• 9.6
• 9.5
• 8.9
• 8.2
• 7.5
• 6.9

Source BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
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Consumer Confidence
100
Expectations
Present Situation
Source Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
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Interest Rates 2001 - 2015
Forecast gt gt gt gt gt gt
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Consumer Prices 2001 - 2015

Forecast gt gt gt gt gt gt
Source BLS, Global Insight
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Oil Prices per barrel
/barrel
Forecast gt gt gt gt gt gt gt gt
Source Global Insight
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Growth in Total Consumption Outlays

Forecast gt gt gt gt gt
Source Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
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The Washington Economy
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Washington MSA Leading Economic
Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change
12-Month Moving Average
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Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA
000s
Annual Data Annual
Month over Year
2008 2009
2010
Source BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for
Regional Analysis
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Job Change by SectorNov 2009 Nov
2010Washington MSA
Total 49,200
(000s)
Source BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for
Regional Analysis
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15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Nov 09 Nov 10
(000s)
Washington 49,200
Source BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for
Regional Analysis
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Unemployment Rate
10.2 DC 9.3 U.S. 6.3 SMD 6.0 MSA 4.8 -
NVA
Source BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
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Economic Forecast
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Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
D.C. 10.1 -0.6 10.8 10.3 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.4
Sub. MD -4.3 -26.8 1.5 15.0 13.6 15.3 14.9 14.6
No. VA 3.7 -24.5 9.5 21.5 20.7 22.9 22.3 20.3
REGION 9.5 -51.9 21.5 46.8 44.0 47.8 46.5 44.2
Average Annual Change 1990-2010 36,000
Source BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,
2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS
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Economic Outlook (GRP) 2015Washington Area and
Sub-state Portions(Annual Change)

NV
MSA
SM
DC
Source GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015

Washington
U.S.
Source Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
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