Model Evaluation Methodology

1
Model Evaluation Methodology

• What Data will be used
• CDC National Center for Health Statistics
  http//www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus.htm
• Small Pox epidemic data
• What Computational Methods are Appropriate
• Use the Linear multistage model for SIR found
  during literature search
• Solve SIR ODEs using Runge-Kutta method if
  errors from
• How Effective is the Treatment Quarantine
  Strategy
• Estimate Available Dosage Statistics from the CDC
  to each state
• Vary the number of persons treated per day (?)
• Vary the input parameters ß and a
• How Well does the Model perform
• Compare with the existing Recommendation set
• http//www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/smallpox/smallpox-biol
  ogical-weapon-abstract.asphome
• Compare with in place emergency preparedness
  guidelines
• How Much Benefit is Possible
• Objective of a successful simulation is to
  minimize Susceptible and Infected and Disabled
  counts in the shortest elapsed time