Convention on Longrange Transboundary Air Pollution

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Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air
Pollution

• Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling
• Review of the Gothenburg Protocol

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE
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What has changed?

• New Eulerian dispersion model
• Ecosystem dependent deposition rates
• Sensitivity of ecosystems, ozone flux approach
• Health effects of particles and ozone
• Emission estimates
• New (national) projections, time horizon 2020
• Effects of existing control options (cycle
  bypassing)
• Increased potential of cost-effective measures
  due to linkages with climate policy,
  non-technical local measures and measures for
  ships

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Preliminary conclusion TFIAM32

• Emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOC declined
• Current policy efforts are no-regret, but
• The Gothenburg Protocol is not sufficient to meet
  the original ambitions regarding the long term
  protection of ecosystems and health

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Unprotected Ecosystem-area (nitrogen) -
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
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Factors changing ecosystem risk estimates
Goth Protocol
Updated CL
50 50 km

Exceedance of CLnut in 2010
Eulerian model
Ecosyst. spec. dep.
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
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Trends in unprotected ecosystem area ()
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
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GP knowledge days with ozone above 60 ppb ?
Problem for Northwestern central Europe
2010
1990
1990
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Current knowledge SOMO35 ppb.days ? problem in
Southern Europe
2000 2010
2020
Sum Of Mean Ozone values over 35 ppb in rural
areas
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Effect of hemispheric ozone increases the
challenge
No increase
Expected increase
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
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Increasing importance of ship emissions
Contribution of SOx from shipping to deposition
of S
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
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Emission factors cars higher than expected
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Emission factors cars higher than expected
ARE THERE MORE SCIENTIFIC CHANGES IN PIPELINE?
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With CLE emissions significantly decrease, with
the exception of NH3 and CO2
EU25, Primes projection
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Remaining problem areas in 2020 Eutrophication
remains wide scale problem
Forests acid dep
Healthvegetation - ozone
Vegetation N dep
Semi-natural acid dep
Freshwater acid dep
Health - PM
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2004 - Distance to Target NOx
Preliminary data !
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
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To do list

• Improve update national emissions projections
• Non EU-countries
• What control measures are envisaged and when?
  (TFEIP)
• Write TFIAM background document to the official
  review report
• Same structure, including figures 4
  additional items
• Add para. on policy development in EU to
  TFIAM-document
• Describe the quality of models used based on
  reviews
• Explore new knowledge on damage to materials
• Discuss costs and benefits of Gothenburg Protocol
  ?

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Preparations for revision of the Protocol

• Modelling particulate matter
• Local air pollution modelling (TFMM)
• Update MFR, including emerging technologies
  non-technical measures
• Inclusion of GHG abatement measures ? GAINS
• Options for target setting robustness of
  strategies