Cross Cutting Issues: An Australian Perspective

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Cross Cutting IssuesAn Australian Perspective

• Neil Ferry
• Manager, Projections
• AGO

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Australian Emissions ProjectionsKey Features

• Multi models for key sectors
• Inter agency process and wide consultation
• BAU (NM) for most sectors
• measures increasingly incorporated in models
• Scenario based approach to uncertainty.

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Multi model approach

• Diversity of inputs, especially in Stationary
  Energy sector (four models currently)
• Overall 10 modelling groups in 2003 projections
• Mix of bottom up and top down models
• Land use change estimated in house by National
  Carbon Accounting System

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Diversity in 2003 SE Projection
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Multi model approach

• Diversity of views, reflecting uncertainty
• Focus on conscious diversity
• Reconciling different models results issue
• 2004 focus on key drivers and explaining
  projection differences
• Impact of changing models

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Wide Stakeholder Involvement

• Inter Agency committee oversights projections
  prepared by AGO
• Consultation with industry and states
• Multi models promote input diversity

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Aust Projections Scenarios

• With Measures (Best Estimate)
• -High and Low scenarios for sectors
• BAU (NM) for most sectors
• No WAM

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BAU (NM) Issue

• Only 9 countries report (full) NM/BAU
• many parties provide NM for CO2 for energy
  (OECD)
• Key issue ismodelling the effect of measures on
  emissions
• Moving to integrate measures more into modelling

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Modelling measures

• Until 2004, SE modellers only included BAU/NM and
  a few measures
• WM was produced by separately adjusting for
  measures estimates
• Measures defined as post 1990 greenhouse related
  policies
• Moving to integrate separate measures estimates
  with full with measures energy modelling

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Measures issues

• Estimating measures impact difficult
• Adjusting initial measures optimism
• Interactions between new and old measures
• And different jurisdictions
• Multi-models makes estimating measures harder
• Continuous improvement to measures and projections

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Policy modelling

• Generally done separately, though with same
  models
• ABAREs GTEM, MSGs G CUBED
• Different models, different impacts
• Integration with existing measures

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Uncertainty

• Emphasis on plausible High-Low scenarios
• understanding what ifs rather than Monte Carlo
  approach
• Link to Key Driver analysis and understanding
  differences between model projections.

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Aust Projections Products

• Tracking to the Kyoto Target 2003
• -plus sectoral projections papers
• Athttp//www.greenhouse.gov.au/projections/index.
  html