Pasadena Unified School District

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Pasadena Unified School District
Student Population ProjectionsFall 2007 2013
Presented to the Board of Education Davis
Demographics Planning, Inc. Riverside,
California May 8, 2007
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Davis Demographics Planning, Inc.

• Founded in 1993
• GIS experience in K-12planning since 1986 (20
  years)
• Privately Owned/Zero Debt
• 98 client retention rate
• Focused Strictly onGIS and planning
  consultingservices for K-12 school districts
• Over 150 school district clients throughout the
  U.S.
• 1 Nationwide ESRI K-12 Business Partner
• 2005 ESRI Business Partner of the Year

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Work Accomplished

• Maintained and mapped student demographic data
  over the last 9 years from fall 1998 through fall
  2006.
• Create mobility study from historical student
  data.
• Ascertain area development projects/plans.
• Developing 7-year enrollment projections (through
  2013) using neighborhood planning/Study Areas.
• Continuing to refine enrollment projections.

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Enrollment Projections

• Based upon data collected from fall 2006 and
  historical student data from 2002 - present.
• Based upon actual student residence rather than
  current school of enrollment.
• Developed using the latest available information
  on any planned residentialprojects and other
  demographic trends

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GIS Basics

• A computer software program that contains layers
  of geographic information
• A spreadsheet with a map attached for viewing
  complex tabular data
• These layers contain information represented by
  points, lines, areas (polygons), or images

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GIS Mapping Data
All work is based upon where the students reside
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GIS Mapping Data
District is divided into existing Zones
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Projection Methodology
Projections were prepared for each of the 464
Study Areas

• Graduate 12th grade Move up other grades
• Estimate incoming K from past birth data

• Modify enrollment based upon
• mobility/cohort factor from analysis
• of historical enrollment change
• for K-6, 7-8, 9-12 at study area level.

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Correlation Between Births and Kindergarten Class
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Birth Data by Zip Codes91001, 91024, 91025,
91101, 91103, 91104, 91106, 91107
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Pasadena Unified District AreaDemographic
Forecasts
A forecasted increase in age 0-4 population
within the district boundaries in 2011 MAY result
in increased K-6 classes in the next decade
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Residential Development in District

• Potentially up to 1,600 new residential units
  built in the PUSD.
• All units are attached housing (condos, town
  homes and apartments) and 500,000 minimum that
  traditionally do not generate many students.
• Builders are marketing toward DINKs (Dual Income
  No Kids) and Empty Nesters
• The few students generated in the future will be
  picked-up through the mobility factor.

Data from Pasadena City Planning Dept.
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Mobility FactorsCompares resident population
from year to year
Regions derived from grouping Zones in geographic
areas
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Projections for Each Study Area
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(No Transcript)
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Projections Accuracy

• Fall 2005 Enrollment 21,220
• DDP Fall 2006 Projection 20,750
• Actual Fall 2006 Enrollment 20,796
• Accuracy of 0.002

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District-wide Projections
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K-6 Change by Study Area 2006 - 2013
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7-8 Change by Study Area 2006 - 2013
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9-12 Change by Study Area 2006 - 2013
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Median House Value
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Attendance MatrixPages 9 10 in report
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Other Tasks

• Attendance matrices for Elementary and Secondary
  schools
• Analysis of the effect of school closure on
  enrollment
• Assisted in redistricting
• Assisted with 7-11 committee
• Provided maps for internal use and website
• Provided street directory for address
  verification

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Summary

• K-12 decline of 2,700 Students from Fall 2000 to
  Fall 2006 424 in the last year alone.
• Decline partially due to decrease in births over
  the last decade
• Slight increase in births may result in minor
  increases in future K classes 2009 beyond
• Forecasted increase in age 0-4 may indicate
  larger future K-6 classes after 2011
• Housing cost increases (lower turnover of homes
  with few young children).
• Decline is steepest in the Northwest portion of
  the district. But is seen district wide.
• Most of Los Angeles County experiencing declining
  enrollment as well.

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Questions?