MJO Working Group Meeting

1
Description of an Experimental Global Tropics
Benefits/Hazards Assessment
NOAA / Climate Prediction Center
MJO Working Group Meeting Breckenridge, CO
July 25, 2006
2
Outline

• 1. Background, Product Description and Team
• 2. Methods and Forecast Tools
• 3. Users / Applications
• 4. Preliminary Verification
• 5. Upcoming Plans

3
Product History

• ? MJO weekly update since summer of 2004
• Monitor, assess, and predict the MJO. Prepare
  preliminary ppt on Friday.
• Discuss evolution during Monday AM Hazards
  Assessment meeting.
  Post final ppt on Monday PM
• Increasing interest / emphasis on impacts ?
  Benefits / Hazards Assessment
• ? Global Tropics Benefits/Hazards Assessment
• 1. Hold Monday AM conference call, utilizing Net
  meeting and GIS software
• 2. Discuss physical basis ENSO, MJO, other
  coherent / persistent anomalies
  
• broader than MJO weekly update
• 3. Produce week 1 / week 2 Outlook for areas with
  above/below average precipitation,
• tropical cyclones, etc. Post on Monday PM.
• Ensure consistency with regional CPC Hazard
  products and NHC / JTWC forecast tracks

4
Product Team
? Climate Prediction Center Development Jon
Gottschalck, Vern Kousky, Wayne Higgins, Wanqiu
Wang, Kyong-Hwan Seo, Michelle LHeureux, Qin
Zhang, Huug van den Dool Operations Chet
Schmitt, Brad Pugh African Desk Wassila Thiaw
? Collaboration Klaus Weickmann NOAA CIRES
/ ESRL Ed Berry NOAA NWS / Dodge City,
Kansas Eric Blake NOAA Tropical Prediction
Center Bill Boos MIT Andrea Bair NOAA
NWS / Western Region Jenna McPhee NOAA NWS /
Western Region L. Rathore NCMRWF / India
5
Example Outlook with Key
Week 1 December 19, 2005
1. An increased chance of above average rainfall
for the eastern Indian Ocean / Indonesia 2. An
increased chance of below average rainfall in the
central Pacific Ocean 3. An increased chance of
below average rainfall across sections of Kenya
and Tanzania 4. An increased chance of above
average precipitation, strong winds, and high
seas along the Pacific coast 5. Tropical
cyclones will impact sections of southeast Asia,
Malaysia, and the Bay of Bengal 6. An increased
chance of tropical cyclogenesis in the southern
Indian Ocean northwest of Australia
Note Assessment product is GIS based other
fields (population, topography, infrastructure
can be overlayed for impact assessments)
6
Forecast Resources
Global Hazards Briefing Sequence

• Real-time monitoring (satellite, SST, other
  tropical modes, etc.)
• ENSO composites
• MJO composites
• Statistical forecasts
• Dynamical forecasts
• SynopticDynamic Model of subseasonal
  variability (Weickmann and Berry, 2006)

7
Forecast Resources Statistical Models
Wheeler Forecast April 3, 2005
Convection forecast to shift eastward
Remote signals also evident
8
Forecast Resources Monitoring Other Coherent
Modes
Consolidation of convection across eastern
Indonesia and the far western Pacific
MJO - blue Eq Rossby - black Kelvin - green
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Various Users / Applications
1. Financial Institutions Evaluate investments
in agriculture, retail, and energy 2. Energy
Companies Chesapeake Energy Corporation,
American Electric Power, Earth Satellite
Corporation 3. Foreign Weather Services
Columbia Weather Service 4. Other US Government
Agencies USFS, RFCs, NWS 5. TV Meteorologists
WFOR-TV Miami 6. Domestic and International
Public
10
Product Usage
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Preliminary Verification

• ? Evaluate rainfall regions and tropical cyclone
  development outlooks
• CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP)

Outlook September 13 - 19, 2005
Dry
Wet
12
Precipitation Temporal Skill Scores

• Three class system A, N, B EC is equal
  chances for A, N or B
• We are validating non-EC areas where
  precipitation forecasts were made
• Scores are comparable to other official CPC
  official forecasts

13
Precipitation Skill Scores Cumulative Spatial
Non-EC
Three class system
HI flooding PNW rains
La Nina
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Skill Measures Tropical Cyclones
Observed
yes
no
b
Hit Rate Proportion of correct yes and no
forecasts (ad)/n Basic Hit Rate Proportion of
correct yes forecasts (ab)/n POD
Probability of Detection a / (ab) FAR False
Alarm Rate b / (ab) n(abcd)
a
yes
Forecast
c
d
no
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How the CLIVAR Working Group Can Help

• ? Product relies heavily on monitoring and other
  subjective input (additional objective tools
  needed)
• Most currently used objective input (e.g.
  statistical methods) work well during established
  MJO events but have little skill in capturing MJO
  onset/decay periods. Need to quantify this.
• MJO Working Group can evaluate many dynamically
  consistent models and offer insight on skill
  during all phases of the MJO lifecycle (onset,
  maturity, and decay) as a function of season and
  geography
• Above quantification can lead to probabilistic
  (MME) forecasts and consolidation forecasts
• WE CAN REALLY USE YOUR HELP!

16
Upcoming Plans

• Improve Hazards/Benefits Assessment
• text indicating whether highlighted areas in
  outlook are hazards, benefits or both
• Additional monitoring tools (e.g. 30 day 90
  day precipitation anomaly maps for the global
  tropics
• Expand collaboration / users ? real-time
  monitoring and research areas
• Accelerate research component
• Develop additional objective input
• ? NOAA CLIVAR support
• ? Clear link to NOAA CTB
• Goal of working towards probabilistic forecasts