Year of Tropical Convection YOTC

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Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) MJO Task
Force
Duane Waliser, JPL/Caltech Mitch Moncrieff,
NCAR Co-chairs, YOTC Science Planning Group
 WGCM Meeting 28-30 September 2009
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YOTC Progress Plans

• Science Plan Completed, WMO Technical Document.
• Program Support/Information Specialist
  (Part-time) US THORPEX Exec Committee funding
  via NSF, NOAA, NASA.
• Web site http//www.ucar.edu/yotc
• YOTC Science Sessions Fall AGU08, AMS09,
  Spring AGU09, Fall AGU10
• Implementation Plan Drafted and
  Discussed/Approved at IP Meeting in Honolulu July
  13-15, 2009.

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YOTC Implementation Planning Meeting Summary

• High-resolution, global analysis and forecast
  data sets are being made available to the
  community from ECMWF, NCEP and GMAO/NASA. e.g.
  T799 ECMWF diabatic fields
• Registered users 166 Requests
  12600 (2000/month)
• Total fields 5 million (mostly in
  2009)
• The satellite data resources (e.g., NASA A-Train,
  TRMM, geostationary) were discussed and since the
  meeting the proposed (NASA Giovanni)
  dissemination framework has been funded by NASA.
• Overlapping field programs (e.g., T-PARC, VOCALS,
  AMY) that will benefit from and contribute to
  YOTC were discussed.
• A number of synoptic periods of interest were
  identified and agreed upon (e.g. late May 2008
  early July 2009).

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YOTC Implementation Planning Meeting Summary

• A number of promising modeling and analysis
  activities were discussed
• A comprehensive, multi-model transpose-AMIP
  experiment over the YOTC period. Planned and
  proposed groups include CMIP5, CAPT/DOE-NCAR,
  GEWEX/EUCLIPSE and CMMAP-superparameterization.
• Global and/or regional cloud-system resolving
  prediction experiments focused on YOTC periods of
  interest (e.g. Japan NICAM, UK Cascade, GMAO
  GEOS, NCAR regional climate model).
• MJO multi-model hindcast experiment in
  association with CLIVAR AAMP and AMY to address
  among other issues prediction skill,
  predictability, and the Maritime Continent
  predictability barrier.
• Extension of the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS)
  Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison (GPCI) for
  the June-August 2008 period.
• Synergistic forecast and analysis study in the
  Atlantic sector of easterly waves, tropical
  cyclones and their modulation by intraseasonal
  variability.
• Tropical extratropical interaction studies
  focused on summer and winter T-PARC studying the
  life cycle and impacts of tropical convection on
  the prediction and predictability of mid-latitude
  weather (e.g., ET, storm tracks).

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YOTC Implementation Planning Meeting Summary

• Recommendation and Action Items
• The YOTC period be extended through April 2010
  but not longer.
• The YOTC IP be deemed a living document with
  updates and revisions completed as required.
• Funding support be identified for the completion
  of the YOTC satellite data archive and
  dissemination system by early 2010. DONE
• Identify and secure financial support for the
  research phase of YOTC from funding agencies
  worldwide, recognizing the international and
  collaborative nature of YOTC.
• Diabatic tendency fields for the NCEP YOTC
  forecasts be made available ASAP, despite
  possibility that the dynamical tend. may not be
  available.
• Consider how YOTC can provide an integrated
  framework for AMYs individual projects and
  initiatives.
• Identify and provide ocean analyses for coupled
  model experimentation and forecasts (e.g., NCEP
  CFSRR).
• Continue and expand efforts to communicate YOTC
  to the wider scientific community (e.g.,
  international and academic program support
  personnel).
• Plan for the first YOTC Research Workshop in
  October 2010. 

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MJO Task Force Update US CLIVAR MJO WORKING
GROUP -gt WCRP/WWRP MJO Task Force
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MJO Simulation Diagnostics

• Developed by US CLIVAR MJO Working Group
• For recipes, plots and codes, see
  www.usclivar.org/mjo.php
• For more motivation and details, see CLIVAR MJO
  Working Group, 2009 MJO Simulation Diagnostics,
  Journal of Climate, J. Clim., 22, DOI
  10.1175/2008JCLI2731.1.
• NCAR NCL has incorporated these into their latest
  release.
• These diagnostics are mostly for indicating and
  quantifying the degree a model represents the
  MJO, but wont give you much indication of why
  your models representation is lacking.
• There is little vertical structure information
  included as confidence in thermodynamic and cloud
  profiles still needed from new satellite data
  sets and recent analyses.

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Applying MJO Diagnostics

• MJO WG application of MJO Simulation Diagnostics
  to a set of contemporary coupled and uncoupled
  GCM simulations
• CAM3.5, CAM-3Z, SP-CAM, SNU, GEOS5, GFDL,
  ECHAM4/OPYC, CFS
• For details, see Kim, D., et al. 2009
  Application of MJO Simulation Diagnostics to
  Climate Models, J. Climate, In Press.
• Most models look relatively poor still although
  better than a decade ago (e.g., Slingo et al.
  1997). The two best representations were from
  SP-CAM (uncoupled MMF) and ECHAM4/OPYC (coupled
  GCM).

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Operational MJO Forecast Metric

• US CLIVAR MJO Working Group and WGNE Project.
• Derived from Wheeler and Hendon (2004) RMM
  indices but designed for operational
  application.
• About 10 operational centers participating in
  real-time.
• http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip
  /CWlink/MJO/clivar_wh.shtml
• Described in Gottshalck et al. 2009 BAMS
  submitted

• Forecast Metric Provides
• quantitative forecast skill assessment.
• targeted model improvements.
• even friendly competition to motivate further
  improvements.
• developing a multi-model ensemble forecast of the
  MJO.

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Joint WWRP-THORPEX/WCRP YOTC Task Force  on MJO
Near Final Approval
Follow on activities Based in large part on
2007 CLIVAR MJO Workshop Recommendations Sperber
and Waliser, BAMS, 2008

• Further development of process-oriented
  diagnostics/metrics that improve our insight into
  the physical mechanisms for robust simulation of
  the MJO, with some emphasis on vertical
  structure, diabatic processes, microphysics, etc.
• Further development and application of MJO
  forecast metrics, with additional focus on boreal
  summer and ensemble development. Includes the
  development of a multi-model hindcast to assess
  MJO predictability forecast skill and
  development of ensemble methods. Additional
  diagnostic output during the YOTC period.
• Funding for two workshops/meetings.
• Other collaboration/support CLIVAR/AAMP, VAMOS,
  WGSIP