Welcome

1
Welcome Overview2nd Annual WorkshopWhat are
National Security Threats?

• Kathleen D. Morrison
• Co-Director, JTAC
• Professor of Anthropology
• Director, Center for International Studies
• The University of Chicago

• Charles M. Macal
• Co-Director, JTAC
• Director, Center for Complex Adaptive Agent
  Systems Simulation
• Argonne National Laboratory

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• What is the Joint Threat Anticipation Center
  (JTAC)?
• Joint venture of the University of Chicago and
  Argonne National Laboratory
• Research, Education, Modeling, and Communication
• Innovative, forward-thinking work on National
  Security Threats
• Interdisciplinary, international
• Leading the nation in integrating social science
  and technology
• Constructing the foundations of computational
  social science for applications to national
  security
• Actively developing and recruiting a new
  generation of researchers
• A unique institutional base cooperative Center
  of Excellence
• Dynamic and flexible in project selection and
  execution
• Discovering the hidden gems of threat research
• Creating a permanent knowledge management base

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Basic Propositions

• Efforts to identify, understand and anticipate
  threats to U.S. national security require an
  appreciation of social, cultural, economic and
  psychological processes as well as a grounding in
  regional and historical contexts.
• An integrative, cross-disciplinary approach is
  needed to advance efficacy in both modeling and
  practical decision making relevant to courses of
  action.
• Validation of formal and computational models
  relative to social science theory is the key to
  establishing standards against which models
  should be judged.

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Why Argonne and Chicago?

• Argonne Decision and Information Sciences
• Multidisciplinary approach to research
• Systems analysis, integration, engineering
• Computational social sciences, agent-based
  modeling and simulation
• Expertise in delivery of real-world solutions
• The University of Chicago Academic Excellence
• Renowned for innovative social science
  Political science, economics, sociology,
  anthropology, psychology, linguistics, history,
  human development
• Area Studies and language
• Computational Institute
• Ongoing Collaborations
• Conferences Workshops
• Courses Training
• Research Projects Publication
• Students

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The Center for International Studies
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Argonne is a Multi-purpose National Laboratory
Operated by the University of Chicago for the
U.S. Dept. of Energy
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Objectives

• Establish a recognized center of excellence for
  threat anticipation expertise, promotion, and
  products
• Develop the science of threat anticipation
  through the support of relevant research and
  education
• Conduct new social, cultural, behavioral, and
  economic research relevant to anticipating future
  threats
• Develop frameworks and models for integrating
  cultural knowledge in meaningful ways to support
  policy analysis
• Develop a repository for models, publications,
  and institutional memory of threat anticipation
• Facilitate a broader dialogue within the research
  community and between the research, operations,
  and policy communities
• Provide activities and contacts that facilitate
  federal interagency participation and
  international collaboration

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JTAC Activities Overview

1. Development of Knowledge, Models, Databases, and
   other tools for Threat Anticipation
2. Frameworks for Verification and Validation of
   Threat Modeling
3. Communication, Collaboration, and Dissemination
   of Information and Tools
4. Education and Training

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Development of models, databases, and other tools

• Research in Support of Threat Anticipation
• Terrorist Strategy and Tactics
• Suicide Terrorism Database and Analysis
• Failed States, Insurgent Sanctuaries, Terrorist
  Havens
• Socio-Cultural Processes and Precursors to
  Terrorism Terrorist Strategy and Tactics
• Poverty, Inequality and Terrorism GIS Analysis
• State Versus Non-State Actors in Territorial
  Disputes
• Language Studies Related to Threat Anticipation
  and Terrorism
• Automatic Machine Translation from Poorly Studied
  Languages
• Emotive Dictionary of Arabic Conflict Terms

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JTAC Activities Overview

1. Development of Knowledge, Models, Databases, and
   other tools for Threat Anticipation
2. Frameworks for Verification and Validation of
   Threat Modeling
3. Communication, Collaboration, and Dissemination
   of Information and Tools
4. Education and Training

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Frameworks for Verification Validation of
Threat Modeling

• 2005 Spring TAP Workshop, April 7-9, 2005
• Threat Anticipation Social Science Methods and
  Models http//jtac.uchicago.edu/conferences/05
• Threat-related research
• ASCO model review and panel discussion
• Validation of models and relevant social science
  theory
• Government requirements and user needs
• Breakout sessions Area Studies
• Validation Science Initiative at Argonne
• Validation of frameworks for agent based models
  and social science theory
• 2006 Spring TAP Workshop, April 3-5, 2006

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JTAC Activities Overview

1. Development of Knowledge, Models, Databases, and
   other tools for Threat Anticipation
2. Frameworks for Verification and Validation of
   Threat Modeling
3. Communication, Collaboration, and Dissemination
   of Information and Tools
4. Education and Training

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Communication, Collaboration, and Dissemination
of Information and Tools

• Establishment of JTAC web site,
  jtac.uchicago.edu
• Publication of research data, findings
• Detailed workshop and conference reports
• Organization of JTAC e-mail list,
  listhost.uchicago.edu/mailman/listinfo/jtac
• 187 subscribers, 137 from 45 distinct domestic
  and international government and military
  organizations.
• Hosting and Visits academic centers of
  excellence, national labs, US and
  international government departments and agencies
• Hosted Delegation from Finnish Ministry of
  Defense/EU
• Defense Science and Technology Laboratory, UK
• Department of Defense Department of Foreign
  Affairs/Trade, Australia

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JTAC Activities Overview

1. Development of Knowledge, Models, Databases, and
   other tools for Threat Anticipation
2. Frameworks for Verification and Validation of
   Threat Modeling
3. Communication, Collaboration, and Dissemination
   of Information and Tools
4. Education and Training

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Education and Training

• Training graduate students
• Enhancing early integration of social science,
  area studies, and modeling through internships
  and collaborative research
• In FY06, established intern program for advanced
  Ph.D candidates
• Recruiting and connecting students with relevant
  interests and expertise
• Established Post-Doctoral Bridge Position
• Coordinates students, university faculty, and
  Argonne researchers
• Enhancing participation in existing programs
• Argonne courses, Chicago graduate workshops

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Workshop Overview

• Broad, expert perspectives on national security
  threats
• Biological, Political, Nuclear, Terrorism
• Showcase recent JTAC-sponsored research
• Breakout sessions on insurgency, terrorism,
  inter-state conflict
• Highlighting graduate research initiatives
• Promote participant interaction
• Work on social science modeling
• Verification, Validation, and Vetting of social
  and cultural models
• Examples of historical and computational research
  on insurgency