Presidents and Policy Outcomes

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Presidents and Policy Outcomes

• Last time modeling presidential elections
• Overview of 2nd half of course

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Forecasting Presidential elections

• Can citizens forecast the winner?
• NES question, 1956-84, about 69 pct of
  respondents correctly forecast the winner best
  predictor of correct prediction vote preference
  for the actual winner
• Campbells model natl state economics, state
  history, Sept. vote intentions strongly predict
  observed results at state level
• Eriksons model weighted avg. of national
  economic quarterly data and avg NES candidate net
  likes/dislikes balance strongly predicts national
  vote shares

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This years models

• PS, October 2004 issue
• Earliest prediction Jan. 29, 2004 (Norpoth)
  Bush 54.7 pct of 2-party vote, 95 pct probable gt
  50 pct
• Median forecast (7 models) Bush 53.8 pct,
  ranging from 49.9 (Aug. 27, 2004) to 57.6 pct
  (May 21, 2004)
• Think of these as campaign-neutral predictions so
  that deviations can be attributed to candidates
  campaign efforts down the stretch

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Sam Wang (Princeton biophysicist)

• http//synapse.princeton.edu/sam/pollcalc.html
• Median outcome, decided voters Kerry 252 EV,
  Bush 286 EV (40 EV MoE)
• Popular Meta-Margin among decided voters Bush
  leads Kerry by 0.9
• Electoral prediction with undecideds and turnout
  Kerry 323 EV, Bush 215 EV
• Popular vote prediction with undecideds and
  turnout Kerry 50.3, Bush 47.7, Nader/other 2

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Andrea Moro
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Presidents and policy preview

• Presidents and legislation
• Negative agenda power the veto and veto threats
• Positive agenda power
• Priming and framing
• Action-forcing powers and presidential initiative
• Proposal powers and first-mover advantages
• Presidents and implementation
• Nominations, appointments and removals
• Recissions and impoundments budgetary
  gatekeeping
• Executive orders

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Federalist Papers and the prez

• Fed 47 fusion of executive, legislative and
  judicial functions tyranny
• these functions are partially distinct in the
  U.S. structure
• Fed 48 exec, leg and judiciary need some measure
  of power to check one another
• state executives were too weak during the
  Articles period
• Fed 51 executive needs ambitions, powers and
  federalism to maintain independence of
  legislature
• Fed 70 energy in the executive?