Ch. 14

1
Ch. 14 Probabilistic Reasoning

• Supplemental slides for CSE 327
• Prof. Jeff Heflin

2
Bayes Net Example
P(B)
Burglary
Earthquake
P(E)
0.001
0.002
P(AB,E)
E
B
0.95
T
T
Alarm
0.94
F
T
0.29
T
F
F
0.001
F
P(MA)
A
P(JA)
A
MaryCalls
0.70
T
JohnCalls
0.90
T
F
0.01
F
0.05
From Fig. 14.2, p. 494
3
Inference Calculation
From Fig. 14.8, p. 506
P(b).001

P(e).002
P(?e).998


P(ab,e).95
P(?ab,e).05
P(ab,?e).94
P(ab,?e).06
P(j?a).05
P(ja).90
P(ja).90
P(j?a).05
P(ma).70
P(m?a).01
P(ma).70
P(m?a).01
4
Utility-Based Agent

sensors

State

What the world is like now
How the world evolves

What it will be like if I do action A
Environment
What my actions do
How happy will I be in such a state
Utility
What action I should do now

Agent
actuators