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Modelling and Managing Crowd Behaviour

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Title: Modelling and Managing Crowd Behaviour


1
Modelling and Managing Crowd Behaviour
  • Prof. Dr. G. Keith Still FIMA
  • Easingwold February 2008

2
Contents of this talk
  • Crowd Dynamics
  • DIM-ICE
  • Models and Simulations
  • Large Scale Multi-Building Evacuation
  • Communicating with the Crowd
  • Canary Wharf Project
  • Summary and Conclusions

3
1. Crowd Dynamics
  • Design Information Management
  • Ingress Circulation - Egress

4
Three phases of Crowd Dynamics
  • Ingress
  • Arrival profile and flow rates
  • Assessing the design capacity/constraints
  • Signage/communication system
  • Circulation
  • Facilities planning and management
  • Signage/communication systems
  • Egress
  • Normal and emergency
  • Signage/communication systems

5
DIM ICE model for Crowd Dynamics
6
Simulation of doorway entrance
The addition of a central handrail changes the
dynamics of the crowd This can INCREASE flow rate
through the door by between 35 -
70..... Small change in the design and we have a
significant change in the flow rate
7
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8
Flow Rates NOT constant
  • As DENSITY increases FLOW RATE will increase THEN
    decrease
  • As the crowd density approaches the critical
    values of 3-4 people per square metre the flow
    rate drops
  • This is critical in designing emergency egress
    routes.
  • At high density the crowd moves at the speeds of
    the slowest group in the crowd
  • Simulations need to reflect this

9
2. Models and Simulations
  • Since 9-11 literally hundreds of emergency
    evacuation models, simulations and tools have
    appeared on the market.
  • Some good, some bad, some downright dangerous.

10
Modelling for crowd safety
  • Someone who builds a mathematical model can get
    carried away with all the clever things that can
    be done with it.
  • The model becomes a safe little world, free from
    anxiety, free from office politics, rewarding in
    its own right.
  • This often results in a very clever model that
    has little to do with reality.
  • Resist the temptation to be too smart in building
    a model. Take small model building steps
    interspersed with healthy doses of reality.
  • Sam. L Savage. Author of Insight.XLA - Analysis
    software.

11
Dont let simulations fool you
  • Watch the next two video clips of commercial
    evacuation software.

12
Simulation 1. Steps
13
Simulation 2. Simulex
14
Discussion 1
  • Discuss the pros and cons of the last two
    simulations

15
Models help us test the design dynamics
  • We build a model to discover the properties of a
    system
  • With discovery comes understanding
  • With understanding comes control

16
Mathematical Modelling Tools
  • Spatial Analysis
  • Visibility Graph Analysis
  • Spatial and temporal invariants
  • Network Analysis
  • Optimisation - Min/Max Flows
  • Tours, shortest spanning trees, etc.
  • Agent Based Analysis
  • Emergent Behaviour
  • Sematectonic Stigmergy change in state, result
    of task-related action, progressive crowd collapse

17
DCMS Persistent Standing
18
Progressive Crowd Collapse
19
Large ScaleMulti-Building Evacuation
  • Consider the elements of evacuation and business
    continuity for a large scale, multi-site,
    multi-building evacuation,

20
World Trade Centre - 2001
  • Twin Towers
  • 9 Million Sq. Ft.
  • 110-story Buildings
  • 50,000 employees
  • 80,000 daily visitors
  • 104 Elevators
  • 9 building evacuations

21
16 Acres of devastation
22
Precision Attack multi-building evacuation
23
Project Canary Wharf
  • London Financial District
  • 90,000 residents
  • Island within city of London complex space

24
Canary Wharf CBD
25
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26
4 Egress Scenarios post 9/11
  • Total Evacuation
  • Fire (GTFOH)
  • Directed Evacuation
  • Bomb threat
  • Phased
  • Decontamination
  • Stay Put
  • External threat (Biological, Chemical,
    Radiological, Gunman, Security alert, Car bomb.)

27
Consider the location of safe refuge areas
28
Discussion 2
  • What are the key elements in defining a
    multi-building evacuation?
  • Where would models help us understand the crowd
    dynamics and evacuation strategy?

29
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30
Note centralised assembly points
31
Evacuation in stages
  • Floor to safe passage (stairs)
  • Stairs to ground floor
  • Ground floor to streets
  • Multi-building street evacuation

32
Possible Strategic Responses
33
Evacuation Strategies
Analysis
Planning
Implementation
Consulting
Strategic detailedanalysis
Scenario Planning
Training Mgrs
Training Individuals
Data capture
Tools Software
Communication decision support e.g.,
Evacuation tool
Evacuation Tool
Spreadsheets Myriad
Spreadsheets Myriad
Spreadsheets
Canary Wharf the UK Financial District
34
Network Diagram
35
Capacity Analysis
  • Bottleneck analysis
  • North 17m
  • East 19m
  • South 27m
  • West 37m
  • Total 100m
  • 82 people per metre per minute

36
Egress Capacity 100m 8,200 ppm
37
The estate has sufficient capacity (roads)
38
Passes Rough Cut Modelling
  • Now we drill deeper into the problem
  • Are there other limits to egress?

39
Simulating egress - choice of four exits
40
Clearing a floor
41
Stair Egress - considered as safe
  • Data shows stairway congestion problems
  • Precedence behaviour
  • People stopping to rest
  • How fit is the population?
  • First responders trying to gain access while
    egress is in progress
  • 15 story building
  • 9 minutes to descend stairs
  • First responders could be on site in 5 minutes

42
Are there other site limits?
  • Which route would the public choose?
  • Are there any areas that give rise to potential
    crushing?

43
Egress is directional
  • Colours show allocation to each exit
  • In the event of an incident egress away from the
    incident is still divergent, unidirectional and
    avoids cross-flows

44
Simulations problem spotter
  • What do the above images tell us about the crowd
    dynamics?
  • What do we need to do to keep this crowd safe?

45
Unplanned Egress
Dangerous bottlenecks at the Station Approach
46
Evacuation Strategies
Analysis of complex spaces and behavioural based
safety
47
50,000 copies deployed
48
Crowd movements
  • In large areas how quickly can the crowd
    disperse?
  • Using GIS systems we can map mass migrations

49
London resident population densities
50
Walk-time information is available
51
4. Crowd Communications
  • How do we get the crowd to START to move
  • Information systems, communication strategies.

52
"The chief virtue that language can have is
clearness, and nothing detracts from it so much
as the use of unfamiliar words."Hippocrates
53
Four Seasons Hotel (Channel 2)
  • Do not, under any circumstances, use the
    elevators
  • Many people evacuated from the World Trade centre
    used the elevators
  • Stay Put. You will be advised as to what
    procedures to undertake
  • Communication problems
  • Do not open windows - a sudden surge of fresh
    air will create a vacuum which will attract fire.

54
Jargon is not good communication
  • Hillsborough / Centennial Park
  • Silver Control / Orange Car Park
  • Ambulance ... loading point / rendezvous point /
    pickup point
  • Left / Right
  • Main Entrance / Inner Concourse / Main Stage
  • DS1 / 19 North Promenade / HSBC Building

55
Initial stages of a disaster
  • Chaotic, confusion, media reports confused
  • What happened?
  • Where did it happen?
  • What do I do?
  • Where do I go?
  • What next?

56
Do crowds always panic?
  • How the crowd reacts depends on a number of
    critical factors.

57
Behaviour described as panic
  • People do not use nearest emergency exit
  • escape via way in
  • May not use emergency exits at all
  • not noticed
  • unfamiliar location
  • Frantic escape activity

58
Panic happens when people are
  • Trapped
  • exit blocked
  • late evacuation
  • Disoriented
  • building collapse/capsize
  • dark/smoke filled environment
  • Isolated from others
  • family/friends

59
But panic.
  • Is not inevitable
  • Is an individual response
  • Is rare in emergencies
  • Can be mitigated
  • Discuss how we can mitigate panic in the built
    and complex environment

60
May 18th Panorama BBC
61
Crowd Dynamics - technical advisors
  • It would take some time to realise this was a
    simultaneous attack
  • Total failure of the London Underground Network
  • City Wide problem with traffic
  • Massive Grid Lock
  • Multi-site evacuation
  • Canary Wharf no transport off the island
  • Short term impact on public confidence in the
    system
  • Potential for the crowd to be overreactive

62
Discussion 3
  • Do we address these factors in current planning?
  • Could we improve our evacuation strategies?

63
5. Summary and Conclusions
64
Phases and Controls
  • Three phases of Crowd Behaviour
  • Ingress Circulation Egress
  • Three influences of Crowd Dynamics
  • Design Information Management
  • Modelling helps
  • Discovery Understanding Control

65
Foresight NOT Hindsight
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