4CP Mission- nonprofit

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4CP Mission- nonprofit

• Help Educate the community on the severity and
  serious consequences of climate change.
• Present ideas and solutions that businesses and
  individuals can implement in order to save money,
  conserve energy improve the overall health of
  our citizens and our planet

www.chescocooler.org
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A Local Perspective on Climate Change

• What does it mean and what can I do about it?

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Agenda

• Review Climate Change Science
• Address How It Will Impact You
• Define What Can You Do

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Planet has been Liveable
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Global Climate Cycles Naturally

• 100,000 yrs of Ice, 20,000 yrs of Warmth
• Currently in a warm period (for the last 15,000
  yrs)
• Climate Drivers
• Earths elliptical orbit Natural tilt and
  wobble
• Volcanoes, Asteroid impacts, Ocean circulation,
  airborne dust
• Balance is easily tipped
• Manmade Greenhouse Gases CO2/CH4/N2O/CFC

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This is Not a natural Cycle

• Earth warming much faster than natural cycles
• Highest CO2 levels in gt800,000 yrs
• 10 hottest in last 15 yrs 20 in last 25
• Global warming is unequivocal man made
• Overwhelming scientific consensus
• All US scientific agencies IPCC agree
• Whats the big deal?
• Burning fuels the last 100 yrs Tremendous
  amounts of CO2
• CO2 traps heat Is an accelerator
• 9 F decrease delivered an Ice Age
• What will happen with a 3-8F increase?

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Univ. of Illinois Survey

• January 1, 2009 3,146 Global Earth Scientists
• It seems that the debate on the authenticity of
  global warming and the role played by human
  activity is largely non-existent among those who
  understand the nuances and scientific basis of
  long-term climate processes.

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More Consensus

• Science Academies Urge Faster Response to Climate
  Change
• June, 2009--The science academies of France,
  Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United
  States, Canada, Russia, plus Brazil, China,
  India, Mexico, and South Africa, called on their
  leaders to "seize all opportunities" to address
  global climate change that "is happening even
  faster than previously estimated.
• World's Science Academies Say Ocean Acidification
  Another Reason to Cut Emissions
• June, 2009--The Inter Academy Panel, a network
  of the world's science academies, issued a
  statement warning that ocean acidification caused
  by carbon dioxide emissions will have a profound
  impact on marine ecosystems

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US Global Change Research Program Official US
Position on Climate Change Sept, 2009

• Comprised of Scientists from Depts of
• Commerce, Defense, Energy, Interior, Agriculture,
  State, Transportation, Health Human Services
• And
• NASA, National Science Foundation, Smithsonian
  Institution, Agency for International Dev., EPA
• Conclusions
• Climate changes are real, have consequences, and
  need attention  

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• Less light and energy reflected
• Means Dark ocean water absorbs heat

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Current Climate Change Impacts

• 2 Shrinking Mountain Glaciers
• Every Glacier has rapid and sustained retreat
• Major losses in Himalayans
• Reduced drinking supplies
• Big impact on agriculture
• This means less water for food for billions
• . in Western USA, South America, Africa and Asia

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Every Glacier in the World
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Current Ocean Change Impacts

• 3 More Acidic Oceans from Dissolved CO2
• This will kill coral disrupt
• the oceans food chain

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Projected Climate Change Impacts

• 1 Sea Level Rise (5-9 in last 100 yrs)
• Projections 3 ft by 2090
• Warmer H2O expands
• New Greenland Antarctica both losing Ice mass
  !!
• Greenland Antarctica 215 feet!
• Even modest increases
• billions spent protecting cities (Or abandon)
• 600 million people displaced
• Mass migrations likely To USA?

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Where Will They Go?

• Bangladesh 162 million people
• 50 flooded by 2090
• Maldives coral islands
• 400,000 people
• What will people drink?
• - salt water intrusion everywhere

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East Coast at risk
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• 2 Likely Crop Failures
• Higher/longer Temp Impacts yields (Time above
  86 F)
• Inconsistent and unpredictable rainfall
• Emerging agricultural diseases
• Ref Nature Conservancy Climatewizard for
  each state
• Wolfram Schlenker at Columbia University
  Michael Roberts at NC St.

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3 Warming Permafrost Peat Bogs Will Release
Massive Methane CO2
Tipping point? .
Latest estimate of the amount of carbon in
Permafrost is 1.7 trillion tons. More than in
atmosphere now. Permafrost line now 90 miles
north vs 1960.
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Impact on Pennsylvania/Chester Co

• Dramatic increase in extreme hot days
• Increase in days over 90F 100F..
• Vulnerable older populations at risk
• Outdoor sports on 100 F plus days?
• Tropical diseases migrate north (West Nile,
  Dengue fever)
• Changes in fish, wildlife plant life
• Ranges moving north Numbers declining
• Agricultural yields to decrease
• Hardwood trees decline black cherry, beech,
  sugar maple
• Warm winters do not kill off insects

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Impact on Pennsylvania/Chester Co
Source Union of Concerned Scientists 2009
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Solutions

• Or what You can do as an individual

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Solutions

• Before We Begin, A Reality Check.
• Significant fossil fuel dependency
• Shifting will take time commitment
• Shifting fossil fuels will raise costs

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US Residential Energy Consumption - 2001
Residential fuels
Electricity
Ag
50 coal
Industry
Vehicles
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COAL 50 of our CO2 100 of Mercury

• Biggest source of CO2
• PA produces 470,000 lbs/minute
• Largest source of mercury, acid rain Huge toxic
  ash
• What shall we do?
• Replace with cleaner alternatives
• Support minimum renewable standards for utilities
• Capture with CCS condense pipeline to
  Underground

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Solutionsat Home

• Consider 2 Powerful Concepts
• 1- Conservation (avoiding energy use when
  practical)
• 2- Efficiency (stretching your energy s)

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Solutionsat Home

• Conserve (avoiding energy use when practical)
• Upgrade to much better MPG cars
• Turn down thermostat in winter/up in summer
• Turn off unused lights power strips
• Turn down H20 heater to 120

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Solutionsat Home

• Become More Efficient (stretching energy s)
• Conduct an energy audit act
• Insulate weatherize
• Upgrade Heat/ Cooling geothermal Hi eff gas
  Solar PV Thermal
• Buy Energy Star/ Switch to CFL or LEDs

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Solutionsat Work

• Things to Consider
• Is there is an Energy Committee?
• If yes, join! If not, promote idea!
• Conduct audit, set company goals implement
• DOE offers free audits

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Solutionswith Elected OfficialsRemember your
grandkids

• Township County State Federal
  
• Communicate Your Position with Elected Officials
• Support all technologies that greatly Reduce or
  Eliminate CO2 Emissions (Nat gas Wind Solar
  Nuclear Hi Eff buildings Hybrid electric
  vehicles Fuel cells Very efficient appliances
  LED / CFL lights)

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Grow the Economy Jobs !

• Stop Bleeding 300 Billion / yr on Oil
• Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) We cannot sacrifice
  another job to competitors overseas. China and
  India are among the many countries investing
  heavily in clean-energy technologies that will
  produce millions of jobs..
• Six months ago my biggest worry was that an
  emissions deal would make American business less
  competitive compared to China Now my concern is
  that every day that we delay trying to find a
  price for carbon is a day that China uses to
  dominate the green economy.

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Its the Economy Stupid..

• "Power companies need and want to be part of
  America's clean energy transition,"
• -David Crane, president and CEO of NRG Energy
  Inc., which owns and operates more than 24,000
  megawatts of electricity generation capacity in
  the U.S.
• "But we need the certainty of clear rules and
  strong policies that will help us invest in that
  transition while also addressing climate change
  and keeping power affordable." 
• "The same inventive solutions that will help the
  environment will also help move the airline
  industry forward,"
• - David Cush, president and CEO of Virgin
  America, a U.S. commercial passenger airline.
• "The United States can't afford to fall behind in
  the global race to lead the new energy economy,"
  
• - Jonathan Wolfson, CEO of Solazyme, a leading
  renewable oil and bioproducts company.  

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Business Leaders Speak Out

• We are virtually certain that climate change is
  occurring, and occurring because of mans
  activities.
• Were virtually certain the probability
  distribution curve is all bad. There are no good
  things thatll come of this
• J. Wayne Leonard, CEO of Entergy Corporation
• (utility based in New Orleans, Louisiana)

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Business Leaders Speak Out

• Dell, DuPont, FPL, Google, HP, Johnson Johnson,
  Levi Strauss, PGE , Duke Energy, Xanterra sent
  the US Senate a letter urging them to pass a bill
  that will cut GHG emissions - jumpstart a clean
  energy economy  
• Dow Chemical Co., Entergy Corp., Nike Inc. and
  more than 140 other companies support a
  comprehensive climate and energy senate bill
•  A rapidly changing climate is reshaping the
  American landscape and poses a long-term threat
  to our nations economy and to our childrens
  future.

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What will it cost?

• A range of cost estimates have all concluded that
  the costs of tackling climate change range from
  1-3 of GDP would provide cost savings and
  create jobs.
• The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have cost so
  far 950 B. about 5 of GDP
• Americans spend 5.6 of after tax income on
  entertainment

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What is Wal Mart doing?

• Wal-Marts new sustainability goal to eliminate
  20 million metric tons of greenhouse gases from
  the supply chain by 2015. 
• This amount, roughly equivalent to the companys
  total corporate emissions last year,
• the equivalent of taking more than 3.8 million
  cars off the road for a year. 

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Wal-Mart has more than 10,000 suppliers in China

• CEO of Lutex Hong Kong-based soap and cosmetics
  maker
• Wal-Mart Stores is urging him to pay attention
  to Environmental details. Energy-saving details.
  Not just everyday low prices, but low greenhouse
  gas emissions.
• We heard that in the future, to become a
  Wal-Mart supplier, you have to be an
  environmentally friendly company, Fung said. So
  we switched some of our products and the way we
  produced them.

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Our Stewardship

• Overwhelming evidence Consensus
• Serious consequences
• Our children/grandchildren are at risk
• It Starts with You

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Scientific Consenus

• Arctic Council
• Australian Academy of Sciences
• Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and
  the Arts
• Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias
• Royal Society of Canada
• Caribbean Academy of Sciences
• Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Académie des Sciences, France
• Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina of
  Germany
• Indonesian Academy of Sciences
• Royal Irish Academy
• Accademia nazionale delle scienze of Italy
• Indian National Science Academy
• Science Council of Japan
• Kenya National Academy of Sciences
• Academy of Sciences Malaysia
• Academia Mexicana de Ciencias
• Nigerian Academy of Sciences
• Royal Society of New Zealand

• U.S. Agency for International Development
• United States Department of Agriculture
• National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration
• National Institute of Standards and Technology
• United States Department of Defense
• United States Department of Energy
• National Institutes of Health
• United States Department of State
• United States Department of Transportation
• U.S. Geological Survey
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
• University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
• National Center for Atmospheric Research
• National Aeronautics Space Administration
• National Science Foundation
• Smithsonian Institution
• International Arctic Science Committee

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Consensus Cont. 2

• American Public Health Association
• American Quaternary Association
• American Institute of Biological Sciences
• American Society of Agronomy
• American Society of Plant Biologists
• American Statistical Association
• Association of Ecosystem Research Centers
• American Society for Microbiology
• Botanical Society of America
• Crop Science Society of America
• Ecological Society of America
• Federation of American Scientists
• Geological Society of America
• National Association of Geoscience Teachers
• Natural Science Collections Alliance
• Organization of Biological Field Stations
• Society of American Foresters
• Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
• Society of Systematic Biologists

• The Royal Society of the United Kingdom
• National Academy of Sciences, United States
• Zambia Academy of Sciences
• Zimbabwe Academy of Science
• American Academy of Pediatrics
• American Association for the Advancement of
  Science
• American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians
• American Astronomical Society
• American Chemical Society
• American College of Preventive Medicine
• American Geophysical Union
• American Institute of Physics
• American Medical Association
• American Meteorological Society
• American Physical Society

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Consensus Cont3.

• European Physical Society
• European Science Foundation
• International Association for Great Lakes
  Research
• International Union for Quaternary Research
• International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• World Federation of Public Health Associations
• World Health Organization
• World Meteorological Organization

• Engineers Australia
• Federation of Australian Scientific and
  Technological Societies
• Geological Society of Australia
• British Antarctic Survey
• Institute of Biology, UK
• Royal Meteorological Society, UK
• Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric
  Sciences
• Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
• European Federation of Geologists
• European Geosciences Union

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Questions?
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Quotes

According to recent estimates from the Integrated
Global Systems Model at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, the median forecast is
for a climb of 9 degrees Fahrenheit by centurys
end, in the absence of effective countermeasures.
According to the same M.I.T. model, there is a
10 percent chance that the average global
temperature will rise more than 12.4 degrees by
2100, Warming on that scale would be truly
catastrophic.
Most people would pay a substantial share of
their wealth much more, certainly, than the
modest cost of a carbon tax to avoid having
someone pull the trigger on a gun pointed at
their Kids head with one bullet and nine empty
chambers. Yet thats the kind of risk that some
people think we should take. Robert H. Frank
is an economist at the Johnson Graduate School of
Management at Cornell University.
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Educate Yourself Handout

• United States Environmental Protection Agency
  http//www.epa.gov/climatechange/
• National Academies of Science http//www.nationala
  cademies.org/
• PEW Center www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basi
  cs
• Real climate. Can search by topics and
  skeptics arguments.
• www.realclimate.org
• United States Department of Energy   http//www.e
  nergy.gov/  
• Intergovernmental Panel on climate change
  www.ipcc.ch
• Hot, Flat Crowded- Thomas Friedman

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Educate Yourself Handout

• http//www.treehugger.com/files/2009/10/wheres-pol
  itical-engagement-climate-change-reductions-soy-co
  rn-yields.php
• A new analysis of U.S. climate projections from
  The Nature Conservancy finds that temperatures in
  the worst-hit states could be up to 10 degrees
  Fahrenheit hotter than present-day levels by the
  year 2100. http//www.climatewizard.org/
• The mass changes of both Greenland  and
  Antarctica ice sheets  (the biggest in the
  world)  during the last 7 yrs have all been
  negative. The rates of lose have accelerated.  We
  should be concerned Geophysicist I. Velicogna
  of NASAs  Jet Propulsion Lab in press

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Vehicles

• Represent 35 of GHG emissions
• Quickly move to hybrids
• Then electric vehicles(as move away from coal)
• Airplanes Trucks use bio fuels from microbes or
  Natural gas for large trucks