Bradfield Lyon

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Drought and Water Shortages Looking Beyond the
Climate Connection
Bradfield Lyon
International Research Institute for Climate and
Society The Earth Institute at Columbia
University Palisades, NY
What About Water? A Reality Check for the 21st
Century American Meteorological Society,
Washington, DC March 26-27, 2008
PHOTO - The Highlands Our Backyard Paradise 2005
Update http//www.highlandscoalition.org/documents
/BackyardParadise206.pdf
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The Study Region
Map University of Connecticut

• The Highlands (NY NJ)
• Population 1.5 million
• Direct source of water
• for 4.5 million people
• 125,000 acres part of the NYC
• water supply watershed

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The Water Abundant Northeastern US
Average Annual Precipitation (mm)
Annual PRCP Coefficient of Variation
Annual Precipitation Coefficient of Variation
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Drought in the Hudson Valley over the past
Century (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI)
60s
DRY WET
PDSI
New York Climate Divisions
Figure from CPC
Data NCDC Climate Division dataset served by IRI
Data Library
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Rocklands Water Supply System
Lyon et al. 2005, JAWRA
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A Mismatch in Planning Water Supply vs. Demand
Water Supply (Private Company)
Drought
Development Local Municipalities, County
Government
Shortages
CLIMATE
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Hudson Valley Drought Indices
(1950-2006)
2002 Drought
WET
PDSI
DRY
WET
6-month precipitation anomaly
DRY
12-month precipitation anomaly
WET
DRY
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All Droughts lasting gt4 months, 1900-2003
Hudson Valley
Recent Droughts in Historical Perspective...
PDSI for Hudson Valley 1950 to 2006
Lyon et al. 2005, JAWRA
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All Droughts lasting gt4 months, 1900-2003
Hudson Valley
Recent Droughts in Historical Perspective...
PDSI for Hudson Valley 1950 to 2006
Tree Ring Data
Cook, E.R. and P.J. Krusic. 2004. The North
American Drought Atlas. Lamont-Doherty Earth
Observatory and the National Science Foundation.
Lyon et al. 2005, JAWRA
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Rocklands Vulnerability to Short Duration
Droughts
Average Occurrence of Meeting Precipitation
Criteria for Declaring Different Stages of
Drought Emergency Based on Historical (1880
2000) Data

Lyon et al. JAWRA, 2005
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A Heavy Reliance on Ground Water
New York-New Jersey Highlands Regional Study
2000 Update (USDA Forest Service, 2002)
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Increasing Population, Increasing Demand
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New York-New Jersey Highlands Regional Study
2000 Update (USDA Forest Service, 2002)
Lyon et al. 2005, JAWRA
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Supply Solution? Desalination of Hudson River
Water
United Water to Build 79 Million Desalination
Plant on Hudson River to Meet Countys Long Term
Water Supply Requirements
http//www.unitedwater.com/uwny/PressRelease.asp?R
eleaseID487
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Situation not Unique to Rockland County
NJ PDSI Climate Division Average
Recent Statewide Voluntary Water Restrictions
Requested in NJ September, 2005 May, 2006
Upper-Right Figure Source Beyond the Drought
New Jersey Faces a Long-Range Water Supply
Crisis http//www.njreporter.org/NJR200206/njr_dro
ught2.html
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US General Accounting Office Study, 2003
USGS Estimated Use of Water in the United
States in 2000
Extent of State Shortages Likely over the Next
Decade Under Average Water Conditions
Intensity of Water Use (withdrawal rate per unit
area)
http//pubs.usgs.gov/circ/2004/circ1268/
http//www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-03-514
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Summary
Significant development coupled with a stagnant
water supply capacity have made Rockland County
increasingly vulnerable to inevitable emergence
of periods of drought (in the hydrometeorological
sense). Development projects have largely been
under the purview of local municipalities and the
county government, while the countys water
supply has largely been under the management of a
private water company. This has led to blame
the other side political posturing during
periods of drought. The climate has, until
recently, been a convenient scapegoat for both
sides should water restrictions be imposed.
The recent drought emergencies in Rockland were
associated with climate fluctuations that were
well within the range of historical variability -
i.e., not a reflection of climate change. The
region in fact has upward trends in temperature
and precipitation. However, an increasing amount
of precipitation is from extreme events which are
not as conducive to groundwater recharge, and
increasing temperatures lead to both
higher consumptive use of water by humans as well
as an increased atmospheric demand. The water
situation in Rockland County is a microcosm of
water issues throughout the water abundant
(north)eastern US.
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Supplemental Slides
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MAM
Hudson Valley Precipitation by Season New
York Climate Division 5 11-yr Moving Avg.
JJA
SON
DJF
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An Increasing Number of Extreme Precipitation
Events
Indicators of Climate Change in the Northeast 2005
http//cleanair-coolplanet.org/information/pdf/ind
icators.pdf
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Climate Trends in the Hudson Valley
Upward trends in temperature and precipitation
have opposite effects on drought...
Graphics Source New England Integrated Sciences
and Assessment, http//neisa.unh.edu/Climate/Annua
lTemperature.html
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NORTH

Recent Droughts
Source USGS http//ny.water.usgs.gov/projects/dia
ler_plots/saltfront.htmlHDR3
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Water Consumption and per capita Use in New York
City
Data Source NYC DEP
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NY DEC
The Four Drought Stages and What They Mean The
Drought Plan describes the actions to be taken
during each drought stage by water purveyors,
towns and villages, water authorities, and other
agencies with water supply responsibilities. Drou
ght Watch - The least severe of the stages, a
drought watch is declared when a drought is
developing. Public water suppliers begin to
conserve water and urge customers to reduce water
use. Drought Warning - Voluntary water
conservation is intensified. Public water
suppliers and industries update and implement
local drought contingency plans. Local agencies
make plans in case of emergency declaration.
Drought Emergency - The Governor may declare
emergency. The Disaster Preparedness Commission
coordinates response. Mandatory local/county
water restrictions may be imposed. Communities
may need to tap alternative water sources to
avoid depleting water supplies, protect public
health and provide for essential uses. Drought
Disaster - Disaster plans are implemented. Water
use is further restricted. The Governor may
declare disaster and request federal disaster
assistance. Emergency legislation may be enacted.
The state provides equipment and technical
assistance to communities.
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Pacific Institute
http//www.pacinst.org/press_center/usgs/
http//pubs.usgs.gov/circ/2004/circ1268/