Alternative Transportation Fuel Developments

1
Alternative Transportation Fuel
Developments Are biofuels derived from land
grown biomass fighting poor thermodynamic
efficiencies? (Like H2 Fuels!) What are the
most likely sustainable fuel options for the
future (post oil, coal and natural gas)?
TEIR Associates, Inc
Aug 4, 2008
2
Carbon Fuel Production Pathways
IBOH
DME
FTL
MEOH
Mixed OH
Algae
Oil Seeds
Grains / sugar
Use of Simple diagrams understates (hides)
inefficiencies of Alt Fuel Pathways
Slide Eric D. Larson, Princeton University, Nov
2006, TEIR Text in Red
3
Actual 2008 cost gt3.00 per gallon (200 COE)
USDA NREL (DOE) believe cellulosic ethanol
will be a cheap biofuel solution
4
EU believes BTL (Biomass to Liquids) is the
future biofuel solution
5
Potential RFS Volume Requirements For Government
Command and Control Mandates
Government wants to decide winning biofuel
options
Consumers get stuck with the bill for high cost
biofuel program
6
Land is a valuable resources that should not be
inefficiently used in fuel production
Land Use Efficiency of Potential Non-Fossil
Transportation Fuels
Gasoline Diesel
Vehicle Miles / Acre / Year
Fuel Replacement
Crude Oil
Captures
Intermediate
Equiv.
of
of
Vehicle Drive Train Effect
Energy Pathway from Sunlight
Energy
Per Acre
Original
Gasoline
Land
Land
Elec. Hybrid
Product
BBL / Yr
Sunlight
20 Eff.
80 Eff.
Sq.Miles
Continent
Sunlight (avg 200 watts / m2)
4,034.0
100.00
Photovoltaic (10)
Electricity
403.4
10.00
Wind - Power from Wind Farm Area
Electricity
33
0.82
Algae Oil Potential - Closed System
Liquid
350
8.68
Land Biomass ( 7 Sht tons / acre / yr)
Biomass
18.7
0.46
BTL (Biomass gasification to liquids)
Liquid
8.7
0.22
Ethanol via corn
Liquid
7.8
0.19
Hydro-dams using land's rainwater
Electricity
0.24
0.01
Non-
Other non-fossil alternative -
Sunlight
Nuclear Power Plant
Electricity
14,200
352.01
References
Total US Cropland 2002
Avg miles per year per vehicle
Electric sources still require a low cost battery
(storage) break-though for vehicles
7
Growing Biomass on Land is a Highly Constrained
Bio-Chemical Reaction
Land is the bio-reactor volume that captures
sunlight energy during the daytime Ambient
Temperature controls the bio-reaction rate and
growing season Freshwater supply from rainfall
is a limiting factor that controls amount of
atmospheric CO2 feed to the bio-reaction for
growing biomass on land Biomasss Growth
productivity (bio-reactivity) is mostly a
function of rain and temperature
8
Latitudes Strongly Determines Average
Temperatures and Growing Season
Short Summer Growing Seasons
Long Growing Seasons
9
Fresh water is a valuable resource that should
not be inefficiently used in fuel production
Air Flows Strongly Determine where rains falls on
Land Surfaces of Earth
10
Ambient Reaction Conditions Determines Type and
Amount of Biomass Growth on Land
Inches
160
120
carrier rate for feeding CO2
Mean Annual Precipitation cm
80
40
-
Mean Annual Temperature C
Avg Reaction Temperature
11
C3
C4
Wheat
Corn
12
Most Arable Land (Productive) for growing more
biomass is located outside the US
China short of Arable Land Became a net Grain
Importer in 2008 India short of land for its
large population size
13
Water Transpiration Varies with Different Plant
Photochemistry
Corn Sorghum Sugarcane Switchgrass
Wheat Rice Potatoes Soybeans
Cactus
14
Land Biomass Photosynthesis Increases Fresh Water
Consumption
Starch or Cellulose
Sugar
Ethanol
Atmosphere
lt- Photosynthesis
6 CO2 5 H20 ? (C6H10O5)n 6O2 ?
Fermentation -gt
(C6H10O5)n n H2O ? C6H12O6 ? 2 C2H6O 2 CO2 ?
6 CO2 5 H20 ? (C6H10O5)n n H2O 6 O2 ? 2
C2H6O 2 CO2? 6 O2 ?
4 CO2 5 H20 ?
2 C2H6O 6 O2 ?
1 Gallon of ethanol consumes 1200 gallons of
fresh water in agriculture
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Water Requirements for Producing Food and Fuel
Per Gasoline Equivalent Gallon
Feed
Crude Oil
Coal
Algae
Corn
Wheat
Corn
Pork
Ethanol
Closed
to
FTL or MEOH
1 Lb
1 Lb
1 Lb
1 Gallon
Gasoline
System
Ethanol
Grain (lbs)
1
1
4
14.4
Harvest Ratio
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
_____
_____
_____
_____
Biomass Total (lbs)
2
2
8
28.9
Water Ratio
600
300
300
300
_____
_____
_____
_____
Water Required
Lbs
1200
600
2400
8667
Gallons
144
72
288
1039
1
8
5
1562
Growing Biomass on land for food or fuel requires
large amounts of water
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Food Petroleum Energy and Fresh Water
Consumption Daily Per Capita
Gasoline
Energy Equiv.
Gallons / Day
- Gallons per Day per Capita
Water
Consumption
Energy
Household
Industry
Agriculture
Total

Public Water
24
37
61

Food (Agriculture)
0.10
319
319
Gasoline Diesel
1.9
2
2

382

Biofuels (36 BGPY) ( 11 of Gas. Dies.)
0.22
1
345
346
Using land based biofuels can double water
consumption per capita
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2008 Energy Consumption Petroleum vs World
Food for Humans
90
80
World Food
Distillate
70
Jet / Kero
60
Gasoline
US Petroleum
50
World Petroleum
Crude Oil Equivalent mm BBL / day
40
30
20
2800 Kcal / cap - day
10
0
World Petroleum
US Petroleum
US Transport Fuels
World Food
Consumption
Higher food prices will reduce food consumption
for use as fuel substitution
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U.S. Alt Fuel Technology Development
Government mandating costly, inefficient biofuels
from land biomass Biofuels from food crops
competing with global food supplies Sugar
Fermentation to IC4OH and C10 HC being
developed Cellulosic fermentation failing
fighting thermodynamics (too costly) Cellulose
Gasification to Ethanol being commercialized
(Rangefuels Others)
Algae lipids to renewable diesel jet fuels
research in pilot phase Stack gas CO2 to Ethanol
via algae looks most promising
19
EU Alt Fuel Technology Development
Government softening mandates on costly,
inefficient biofuels from land biomass -
Concerns over high cost, risk to food supplies,
little CO2 benefit Future ethanol supplies for
gasoline being imported from Brazil (ethanol
from sugarcane, not food starches) Most ethanol
used for ETBE to also upgrade low cost butanes to
gasoline from global natural gas supplies (
minimizes imported crude oil) Biodiesel from
oilseeds used for diesel fuel (still
costly) Cellulose Gasification to FT Liquids
being promoted for diesel High cost of biofuels
being hidden with mandated use (versus using
subsides)
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Japan Alt Fuel Technology Development
Japan imports all of its energy for
transportation fuels Government mandating 3
ethanol in gasoline in 2010 Future ethanol
supplies for gasoline being imported from Brazil
(ethanol from sugarcane, not food starches) All
ethanol will be used as ETBE to upgrade low cost
butanes from global natural gas supplies
(Blending 7 ETBE provides 3 ethanol in
gasoline) Future direction on diesel fuels is
unclear Some CNG (natural gas) being developed
Commercialization of Plug-In Hybrids will allow
use of grid power for some travel
21
China Alt Fuel Technology Development
China considering all alternative fuels for
reducing dependency on imported crude oil just
not renewable fuels Because of risk to food
supplies, Government banned any new grain to
ethanol plants in 2007 only non-grain ethanol
plants allowed However, China now importing
starch feedstocks (cassava) for fermentation to
ethanol China short of arable land for growing
biomass feedstocks Coal to liquids being
aggressively developed Methanol for M15
gasoline blending M85 and M100 fuels Methanol
to Gasoline via Exxon MTG Coal to liquids via
direct liquefaction Coal to FT liquids via
gasification Non-food Oilseed plants being
investigated
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Observations Exercise in futility?
? Biofuels from land based biomass is fighting
similar problems as H2 Fuel - fighting
thermodynamic inefficiencies resource
intensive - multi-step processes in supply chain
makes it costly inefficient - land water
resource limited which also competes with food
supply ? Food and water supply risk will limit
the domestic production of biofuels in many
countries ? Closed system algae for liquid
fuels and nuclear energy for electric power
appear to be the sustainable solutions in the
very long term ? Conventional fossil-based fuels
(carbon energy previously stored by Nature) will
continue to be the most economical transportation
energy in the intermediate future because of
portable storage and low cost supply ? Flex-fuel
vehicles using methanol from coal (other solid
carbon) may be best interim solution to domestic
energy security risk (i.e. minimize imported
crude oil)
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William J. Piel TEIR Associates,
Inc Transportation Energy Information
Resources www.TEIRA.com www.futurefuels.net
Vision is the art of seeing what is invisible to
others" by Jonathan Swift 1667-1745
TEIR Associates, Inc
Aug 4, 2008