Comparative Arab Experiences with Federalism

1
Comparative Arab Experiences with Federalism

• Democratic Federalism An Intensive Course
  offered to Iraqi University Faculty by the Forum
  of Federations Amman, June 18 to July 5, 2007

2
Outline

• Arab and Islamic experiences with diversity and
  unity
• Successful federal experiences The United Arab
  Emirates
• Failed federal experiences The United Arab
  Republic and the Yemeni unification process
• Federalism and post-conflict peacebuilding Why
  not Lebanon but (maybe) the Sudan?

3
Arab and Islamic experiences with diversity and
unity

• Diversity in the Arab World
• Sources of diversity ethnicity, language, and
  religion
• Historical expressions of diversity
• Provinces, governorates under the various
  Arab/Islamic empires
• The millet system under the Ottoman empire
• Unity in the Arab World
• The concept of the Umma
• Arab nationalism al qawmiyya al arabiyya

4
Successful federal experiences The United Arab
Emirates(1) Context and Prerequisites

• A history of past cooperation The Trucial
  States (from 1820-1892 to 1971)
• A hostile regional environment federalism as a
  bulwark against strong neighbours
• Extensive border disputes federalism as a
  mechanism of conflict-management
• Extremely diverse units asymmetrical
  federalism?

5
Successful federal experiences The United Arab
Emirates(2) Characteristics

• A flexible and creatively ambiguous constitution
• A founding (and renewed) compromise between
  wahdawis and ittihadis
• A social compact based on rentierism
• Supportive institutional structures

6
Failed federal experiences (1)The United Arab
Republic (1958-1961)

• Context and prerequisites
• Two competing visions one quasi-federal, the
  other unitary
• A union of equal partners Coming together and
  staying apart
• Domestic political struggles in Syria Baathists
  vs. Communists
• A consecration of Arab unity Melding together
• The aura of Gamal Abd al-Nasser and the weight
  of Egypt
• Plebiscite and the ratification of the Union
• Characteristics
• An unstable bipolar arrangement
• No geographic contiguity
• High asymmetry in size and capacity
• Authoritarianism at the center
• Egyptian dominance of political life and of the
  Syrian administration

7
Failed federal experiences (2) Yemeni
unification (1990-1994)

• Context and prerequisites
• The end of the Cold War
• The discovery of oil and natural gas in the
  contested border area between North and South
  Yemen
• but ... the decision to back Iraq in its
  invasion of Kuwait
• Characteristics
• Two widely divergent systems

8
Federalism and post-conflict peacebuilding
(1)Why not Lebanon but (maybe) the Sudan?

• Lebanon
• Regions, what regions?
• An extremely intermingled country 17 minorities
  none of which (with the exception of the Druze
  community) is geographically concentrated
• A logic of economic and administrative
  centralization the overwhelming dominance of
  Greater Beirut
• A problem of trust
• A divided identity in a troubled regional context
  The National Pact of 1943
• Unity vs. diversity Federal proposals and
  majoritarian democracy
• An existing alternative
• A history of consociational powersharing

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Federalism and post-conflict peacebuilding
(2)Why not Lebanon but (maybe) the Sudan?

• Sudan
• An extremely complex Comprehensive Peace
  Agreement
• Building trust
• Through institutions Proportional division of
  power at the center
• Overnight A relatively short transitional period
  6 years from 2005 to the scheduled 2011
  referendum with a 2009 democratic election
  deadline
• Building capacity under duress The creation of a
  new large region (Government of South Sudan)
• A gap between the text of the CPA and the
  practice of the Government of National Unity
  under the stewardship of the ruling National
  Congress Party
• Unity over diversity
• Concentration of power and decision-making
  responsibility in the Presidency rule by decree
• A breach of trust
• Pairing agreement in the attribution of
  ministries is not respected
• Only 40 SPLM/A members in the GNU
• No meaningful inclusion of SPLM/A in the civil
  service and other national institutions

10
Federalism and post-conflict peacebuilding
(3)Why not Lebanon but (maybe) the Sudan?

• Sudan
• Serious flashpoints
• The Abyei problem
• The management of oil
• Complicated by internal and external factors
• Internal factors
• The lack of NCP political will
• The lack of SPLM/A capacity
• The death of John Garang
• External factors
• The Ugandan LRA and the security situation in
  South Sudan
• Chad and the support to Darfur rebels