The Nation

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The Nations Hurricane Program
An Interagency Success Story

• Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S.
  Navy (Ret.)Under Secretary of Commerce for
  Oceans AtmosphereNOAA Administrator
• 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC)
• March 5, 2007

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Menu

• Successes and Challenges
• Collaborative Partnerships
• The Path Ahead

Animated Hurricane Katrina Track
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Success and ChallengesNOAA Response to Hurricane
Intensity Research Working Group (HIRWG) Report
Mean Absolute Error of the 1985-2006 NHC
Atlantic Intensity and Track Forecasts
Track
Intensity
48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5 per year
on average since 1985, while intensity forecasts
have improved about 0.8 per year
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Collaborative PartnershipsData Collection

• Entire observations system depends on
  partnerships
• Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMRs)
  being transitioned from research to operations
• UAS partnerships (NASA, DOE)
• Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS)

SFMR or SMURF
Altair
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Collaborative PartnershipsGlobal Earth
Observation System of Systems

• A distributed system of systems
• Improves coordination of strategies and
  observation systems
• Links all platforms in situ, aircraft, and
  satellite networks
• Identifies gaps in our global capacity
• Facilitates exchange of data and information
• Improves decision-makers abilities to address
  pressing policy issues

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Collaborative PartnershipsModeling and Prediction

• GFDL
• Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model
• HWRF
• Air-Sea-Land Hurricane Prediction System
• Operational in 2007 GFDL will run in parallel
• Navy GFDN COAMPS
• Tropical Cyclone Systems
• Multi-Model Ensembles
• Important to tropical cyclone forecast and
  warning operations

Navy COAMPS Model of Significant Wave Heights in
Western Pacific
Hurricane Katrina HWRF Model8/2005
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Collaborative PartnershipsTropical Cyclone
Research and Transition of Research to Operations

• Field Projects
• TCSP
• NAMMA
• RAINEX
• CBLAST-DRI
• Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT)
• Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
  (JCSDA)

Joint Hurricane Testbed
CBLAST
JCSDA
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Collaborative PartnershipsPreparedness

• StormReady
• NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards
• Multi-Agency collaboration including
• Department of Education
• Department of Homeland Security
• Department of Commerce/NOAA
• Geo-Targeted Alerting System

Map of StormReady Communities
Map of NWR Coverage
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Collaborative PartnershipsResponse
Response is critical to the tropical cyclone
program

• Hurricane Liaison Team
• Media Pool

HLT (FEMA/NOAA) discussing tidal surge heights
for Hurricane Lili (2002)
NHC Meteorologist Updating HLT
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Collaborative PartnershipsRecovery
Response is critical to the tropical cyclone
program

• Land falling tropical cyclones will occur again
• Assistance from Federal Agencies will be
  critical to recovery efforts

Status of Transportation-related Recovery
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The Path AheadWhat have we learned?

• Multiple Hurricane Proposals
• Partnerships and coordination
• Operational requirements
• Advancements in operational numerical weather
  prediction models
• Advanced observations and data assimilation
• An efficient transfer of research to operations
  plan
• Critical Mass is crucial

Path and Intensity Track of Hurricane Katrina
(2005)
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The Path Ahead

• Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical
  Cyclones The Way Ahead
• Excellent Plan
• Comprehensive Strategy
• Key Areas
• Relevant RD

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The Path Ahead
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Questions?