Air Emissions from Ships:

1
Air Emissions from Ships The Changing
Landscape
Bryan Wood-Thomas EEB Clean Air Seminar
World Shipping Council 20 November 2008
2
Overview

• World trade
• Annex VI how did it happen?
• Climate where doe s the debate go?

3
Growth in World Trade 1948-2004
Years
Source WT0, 2006
4
Rapid Growth of Global Shipping
Source UNEP - http//maps.grida.no/go/graphic/the
-boom-in-shipping-trade
5
Growth in Container Trade
6
Our Understanding Changes

• The significance of air emissions to air quality
  problems becomes a priority in the U.S. and
  Europe.
• Strength of the data / knowledge of the
  technology and the markets
• Key Industry players play a constructive role

7
Inventory Overview of NOx
U.S. Mobile Source NOx Inventory
8
Inventory Overview of PM
U.S. Mobile Source PM 2.5 Inventory
9
Inventory Overview of SOx
U.S. Mobile Source SOx Inventory
10
The New Annex VI Standards
How did the IMO break with its past?

• How did the treaty come into force?
• Years of planning / coordination between the US
  and key European States
• Engine manufacturers
• Intertanko changes the sulphur debate
• Political will in key countries to go beyond the
  original annex
• Strong science
• Key industry groups see stringent standards in
  their best interest

11
Anatomy of the Deal

• NOx Comes First.
• - packaging Tier II III
• - Existing engines
• MAN punitive measures
• The sulphur PM debate
• NGOs help
• The Oil Majors game plan
• Reaching out

12
Where Can We Expect New Emission Control Areas?

• North America West, Gulf, and East Coasts as
  well as the St. Lawrence / Great Lakes.
• How soon? - 2012
• California requirements 2009 / 2012
• Other Candidates
• - Mediterranean
• - Tokyo Bay
• - Hong Kong
• - Eastern Atlantic?

13
Effects of the New Annex VI Standards

• They will be significant, but uniform across
  competitors.
• New engine technologies will drive a departure
  from the usual trade-off between NOx and CO2.
• Requirements to burn cleaner distillate fuel will
  more than double when compared to residual fuel
  bills, but cost per good and CO2 per TEU or ton
  mile will remain very low

14
The Global Fuels Market

• Demand for lighter fuels is increasing
• Cost, refinery upgrades, profit
• Asia, Latin America, where does the new
  capacity go?
• Scrubbers are they an option?

15
The GHG Debate

• Ships account for about 2-3.5 of GHG
• Most energy efficient mode of transport
• Development of a legally binding IMO treaty is
  under debate
• What system is to be employed?
• Fuel tax
• Mandatory efficiency stnds
• Trading scheme
• Cargo-based scheme with assignment to national
  inventories

UNFCCC
16
Shippings Influence on Climate

• Warming Effects
• CO2
• O3 from NOx
• Black Carbon (soot)
• Cooling Effects
• Cloud formation
• Atmospheric residence time and long-term effects

17

• CO2 Generation in the Global Supply Chain

• Marine transportation accounts for some 2-4 of
  total anthropogenic CO2 emissions worldwide.
• Generation in the transoceanic leg is
  tremendously low when compared to rail and truck
• - What does this suggest about future trends in a
  changing economy?

18
Freight Costs

• What are trans-oceanic
  transportation costs?
• - Rates are typically value based (i.e. higher
  value cargoes generate higher rates)
• - Some examples
• - electronics ( 700 DVD player) 1.50
• - shoes (80 sneakers) .07
• - beer (28 case) .24
• - coffee (1 kg 15) .15
• - crude oil (litre) .005

19
Questions
Bryan Wood-Thomas, Vice-President World Shipping
Council bwoodthomas_at_worldshipping.org