Trade and its transport

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Liner shipping connectivity

• Trade and its transport
• Countries connectivity
• Routes
• Trends
• Research agenda

Jan.Hoffmann_at_UNCTAD.org IAME Melbourne 2006
2
Liner shipping connectivity

• Trade and its transport
• Countriesconnectivity
• Routes
• Trends
• Research agenda

Jan.Hoffmann_at_UNCTAD.org IAME Melbourne 2006
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Maritime Trade
Source UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2005
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The costs of maritime trade

• Distances
• Type value of goods
• Imbalances

• Competition
• Economies of scale
• Port efficiency

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Maritime traffic density
Source Bovensmann, H. et al, via Umweltbundesamt
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trade
transport costs
connectivity
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Maritime connectivity

• An indicator for the supply of liner shipping
  services (containerized trade)
• Ships
• Capacity to transport containers (TEU)
• Shipping companies
• Services
• Average ship sizes
• Maximum ship sizes

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Benefits of a high connectivity

• More choice for the user (importers and
  exporters)
• Lower transport costs for the user(importers and
  exporters)
• Direct income for the port (private operator,
  port authority)
• Indirect income if value added services can be
  sold

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Connectivity

• Per country in a point
• Per route between pairs of countries

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Connectivity

• Per country in a point (162)
• Per route between pairs of countries

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Conectividad

• Per country in a point (162)
• Per route between countries (12960)

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Liner shipping connectivity

• Trade and its transport
• Countriesconnectivity
• Routes
• Researchagenda

Jan.Hoffmann_at_UNCTAD.org IAME Melbourne 2006
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Connectivity per country

• July 2006
• UNCTAD,
• Miaojia Liu and Jan Hoffmann
• based on www.ci-online.co.uk

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Container ship deployment
1448
1037
1242
700
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Deployment of TEU ( total vessel capacity)
5068909
2264185
2046129
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Number of liner services
943
743
496
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Number of companies
118
84
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The biggest ships (gt 9200 TEU)
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Average vessel size
3211
3616
3111
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Deployment of TEU per 1000 capita
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Liner shipping connectivity

• Trade and its transport
• Countriesconnectivity
• Routes
• Trends
• Research agenda

Jan.Hoffmann_at_UNCTAD.org IAME Melbourne 2006
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Connectivity per route

• Top 25 routes (out of 12960)
• June 2006

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Source UNCTAD, Miaojia Liu, Jan Hoffmannbased
on ci.online.co.uk, June 2006
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Source UNCTAD, Miaojia Liu Jan Hoffmannbased
on ci.online.co.uk, June 2006
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Liner shipping connectivity

• Trade and its transport
• Countriesconnectivity
• Routes
• Trends
• Research agenda

Jan.Hoffmann_at_UNCTAD.org IAME Melbourne 2006
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Port moves

• Million TEUs

DVB/ Drewry
38
Guayaquil
Hamburg
39
Fireland
40
Atacama Desert
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Suez Canal
42
Panama Canal
43
GwangYang
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Luanda
45
New York
46
Colombo
47
Bandar Abas
48
Mekong river
49
Guayaquil
50
Beirut
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Going up

• TEU deployment
• Maximum vessel size
• Average vessel size

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Going up

• TEU deployment 14
• Maximum vessel size 18
• Average vessel size 11 (change of country
  average 2004-2006)

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Little change

• Services
• Ships

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Little change

• Services - 3.7
• Ships 2.2
• (change of country average 2004-2006)

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Going down

• Number of companies

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Going down

• Number of companies - 6.2
• (change of country average 2004-2006)

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We have reached a peak

• Until very recently
• In spite of the (global) process of
  concentration, the number of companies providing
  (local) services increased due to the expansion
  of global players into (so far) new markets

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We have reached a peak

• Today
• As global players are (now) covering all regions
  of the world, mergers among them (start to) lead
  to a reduction of competition on individual
  routes.

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History PON
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July 2006 Top 10 liner companies
Source JH, based on ci.online.co.uk, June 2006
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Example Panama
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Liner shipping connectivity

• Trade and its transport
• Countriesconnectivity
• Routes
• Trends
• Research agenda

Jan.Hoffmann_at_UNCTAD.org IAME Melbourne 2006
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Next steps

• Complete matrix
• Incorporate distance, transshipments,
  frequencies
• Developments over time
• improve the measurement of connectivity

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trade
transport costs
connectivity
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Lower Transport Costs -gt More trade -gt Economies
of scale -gt Lower Transport Costs
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• Better services
• -gt More trade
• -gt More income to finance infrastructure
• -gt Better services

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More trade -gt More shipping supply -gt More
competition -gt lower freights -gt More trade
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Logistics expenditure in USA
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Waiting trucks at a border
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What future?
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trade
transport costs
connectivity
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Liner shipping connectivity

• Trade and its transport
• Countriesconnectivity
• Routes
• Researchagenda

Thank You !
Jan.Hoffmann_at_UNCTAD.org IAME Melbourne 2006