Chapter 3: Exploring the Future

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Chapter 3Exploring the Future
Scott Kaminski ME 449 2 / 2 / 2005
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Exploring the Future

• Definition using different strategies to
  predict possible futures based on present trends
  while recognizing the integration of
  environmental and social systems
• Purpose
• Brainstorm possible futures and what actions are
  needed to attain those future
• Brainstorm how to react to possible events
• Reduce the number of surprises
• Indicate which path society is heading down
• Evaluate the robustness of current strategies

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Strategies
Strengths Weaknesses
Study Panels with Knowledgeable People Draw on wide range of expertise Accesses understanding that goes beyond data Experts challenge and learn from each other Group - Think Consensus Seeking Excluding different opinions
Elicitation of Expert Judgment More diverse than SPWKP Quantitative Possibly Incorrect
Internally Consistent Narratives Explores factors beyond normal range of study Incorporates norms and values Idiosyncratic Not scientific
Strategic Gaming Integrates scientific models and human ingenuity Time consuming Useless conclusions
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Strategies cont
Strengths Weaknesses
Extrapolating Present Trends using Statistics Capture underlying forces Limits the unknowable No causal understanding
Causal Modeling Incorporates scientifically verifiable relationships Quantitative forecasts Demands data Doesnt incorporate dissident knowledge well
Integrated Assessment Models Manages a large amount of diverse information Continues dialogue Serves as comparison Difficult to incorporate data
Scenario Building Organize scientific insight Gauge emerging risks Challenge the imaginations Idiosyncratic
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Criteria for Evaluating Strategies

• Scientific Credibility appropriate treatment of
  uncertainty
• Political Legitimacy - people who have the power
  to cause change view the results as legitimate
• Practical Utility strategy is available for use
  and does not require a lot of resources
• Effectiveness correctly predicts future events

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Regional Scale

• Definition an area that contains diverse
  circumstances, but also easily identifiable
  interactions between society and the environment
• Reasons
• Scaled down version of global situation
• Greatest challenges to sustainability occur at
  this level
• This scale has worked in the past
• Knowledge is accessible to all and so conflicts
  between systems can be resolved

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Conclusions

• Model Benefits probe future implications of
  present trends, provide options for moving toward
  sustainability, elucidate necessary actions
• Model Drawbacks long-term monitoring is
  difficult, institutional bias, little knowledge
  of how global affects regional
• Reasons for Pessimism integrated models have not
  quelled political debate, often negative findings
• Reasons for Optimism institutional changes and
  social shifts have occurred, integrated system
  study and action have occurred
• Overall Sustainability is possible over the
  next two generations if basic knowledge is
  increased, there are the social and technological
  tools available to use that knowledge and the
  political will to act (Ex. Current Forces Trend
  Scenario vs. Hunger and Carbon Reduction Scenario)