Fred Buttel

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Some Observations on and Predictions about the
Socioeconomic Implications of GM Crops
Frederick H. Buttel
Center for World Affairs and the Global
Economy, Department of Rural Sociology, And
Program on Agricultural Technology Studies
UW-Madison fhbuttel_at_wisc.edu
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Five major conclusions about the experience with
GM cropsFour guesses about the future
directions and issues regarding GM crops
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Conclusion 1
Both proponents and opponents of Gm crops tend to
want to portray all of them as being
fundamentally of the same type or class. But GM
crops (as commonly understood, i.e., as crop
varieties that involve single-transgene input
traits) are not all of a piece, and their
socioeconomic implications are highly
crop-specific and are often location-specific in
their environmental and social implications a
well. Biotechnology ought not to be evaluated as
good or bad as a class, but rather on a
technology-by-technology basic (often taking into
account interactions with social and natural
environment).
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GM crops are a very particular technology

• Single-gene traits
• Two input traits Bt (insect resistance) and HR
  (herbicide resistance/tolerance)
• Transgenic
• A very few crops soybeans, corn, cotton, and
  canola
• Some failures Bt potatoes, FLAVR-SAVR Tomato
• Eventually wheat?

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Advanced or modern biology includes GM crop
technologies, but is a much larger and
heterogeneous set of tools. Genomics,
bioinformatics, and computational molecular
biology For example, Susan McCouch, Professor of
Plant Breeding, Cornell University, and rice
genomics
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Genes That Greatly Boost Rice Yields Are
Identified by Cornell Researchers Thanks to a
technique known as genetic mapping, Cornell
University scientists have, for the first time,
located genetic factors that allow significant
increases in yields of rice grown by poor farmers
trying to produce crops in hardscrabble
conditions. The researchers' breakthrough has
been to use genetic maps to identify regions of
chromosomes containing genes that control traits
such as grains per plant, disease resistance, and
earliness. These genes are identified in a wild
ancestor of rice and then introgressed, or
"spliced," into domesticated, popular varieties
of rice. In this case, the genes were introduced
into a variety of upland rice, widely grown in
unfavorable conditions such as on mountain
slopes. As a result, the yield of the
domesticated rice has been increased.
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"The ability to use modern molecular techniques
to improve yield and disease resistance of
varieties grown by poor farmers under adverse
conditions is as important as using this
technology in the high-production areas of the
world," says Susan R. McCouch, Cornell assistant
professor of plant breeding. McCouch presented
the results of this plant-breeding achievement at
the annual meeting of the American Association
for the Advancement of Science. Her talk,
"Molecular Breeding and Genetic Resources," was
part of a panel discussion on "Accelerating Crop
Evolution for Greater Production and Better
Biodiversity Conservation." For more
informationCornell News Servicehttp//www.news.
cornell.edu [phone]
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Conclusion 2
The tendency is for GM crops to be adopted by
farmers in spite of, rather than because of,
their profitability performance. For most crops
and most farmers, GM varieties tend to be
somewhat better than a break-even proposition
(with nearly half of adopters reporting that they
either lead to no increase, or even a decrease,
in net profiteers per acre). But these crops are
still attractive to many farmers. Why?
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Per acre comparison of Bt corn, percentage of
answer per rating, 1 is lower, 3 is about the
same, 5 is higher
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Per acre comparison of Bt corn, percentage of
answer per rating, 1 is lower, 3 is about the
same, 5 is higher
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Per acre comparison of HR Soybean, percentage of
answer per rating, 1 is lower, 3 is about the
same, 5 is higher
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Per acre comparison of Bt corn, percentage of
answer per rating, 1 is lower, 3 is about the
same, 5 is higher
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Conclusion 3
The major attraction of GM crops, especially the
most successful ones (HR soybeans and Bt cotton),
is that they substitute for management and make
management decision-making more routine.
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Conclusion 4
In the US context at least, GM crops have tended
to be somewhat more widely adopted by larger
farmers than by smaller ones, but the
scale-bias of GM crops is much less than for
may new technologies such as rBST or precision
farming). One of the ironies of the adoption
and diffusion of GM crops is that, at a food
system or food supply levels, foods with GM
ingredients have diffused rapidly, whereas at the
farm level and from a geographical perspective
there is very little use of GM crops across the
world.
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Conclusion 4 (continued)
GM opponents are alarmed at the spread of GM
ingredients in so many foods at the retail level.
GM proponents views are less singular, or are
contradictory in some fora the rapid spread of
GM crops is trumpeted, while in other for a
concern is expressed that regulatory roadblocks
and inappropriate public attitudes are needlessly
getting in the way of needed improvements in crop
production.
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Conclusion 5
Outside of the US, Canada and Argentina, there is
relatively little GM crop acreage in the world.
About 65 percent of the total GM crop acreage in
2001 was accounted for by one technology (HR
soybeans) in one country (the US). Yet, much of
the rhetoric, and a good share of the activity,
associated with GM crops is now focused on the
developing countries. Why?
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Source International Service for the acquisition
of Agri-Biotech Applications, Cornell University
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Prediction/Guess 1

• The US and European Union (plus East Asia and
  Oceania) are probably at a stalemate over
  approval and regulation of GM crops.
• As the US has become increasingly convinced that
  the Europeans are hopeless, and as the
  Europeans have become increasingly convinced that
  the Americans are hopeless, each of the two
  major sides to the GM crop controversy has
  shifted its attention to the developing world.

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Prediction/Guess 1

• Both Europe and the US are increasing their
  efforts to influence developing county leaders,
  scientists, and farmers to adopt their views on
  GM crops.
• Ultimately what is most at stake is the integrity
  of opposing regulatory institutions and cultures
  (the precautionary principle in the EU, and
  substantial equivalence and cost-benefit-type
  risk assessment in the US).

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Prediction/Guess 2

• Do not be surprised if Transatlantic and other
  global conflicts over GM crops, and over
  agricultural policy, lead to a rollback of some
  of the provisions of the mid-1990s World Trade
  Organization agreement. The implications of this
  are not at all clear, however.

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Prediction/Guess 3
Do not be surprised if the GM issue dies down
considerably as scientists find non-transgene
approaches (e.g., marker assisted selection) to
incorporating molecular-biological knowledge into
crop improvement and as scientists and
biotechnology firms alter their research
priorities. Sophisticated NGOs are not much
opposed to virus-resistant crops and to crops
developed through marker-assisted breeding.
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Prediction/Guess 4

• Most consumers (in the US) tend not to be
  persuaded at all that biotechnology is good or
  ought to be pursued because it increases
  productivity or reduces agricultural product or
  food prices.
• Look for changes in biotechnology research goals,
  and in discourses about why biotechnology is
  valuable.

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Where is the GM Issue Heading?
My Guess Three possible complementary
scenarios

• Continued US/Europe-Japan stalemate
• GM crops become obsolete because of insect and
  weed resistance, and there are no significant new
  single-gene traits in the pipeline.
• Advances in the genomics and computational
  biology make possible intraspecific (as opposed
  to interspecific or transgenic) breeding of
  crops, so that there is no longer a rationale for
  researchers and corporations to butt up against
  public resistance to GM/transgenic crops.