IAHS

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IAHS

• PUB
• UNESCO, WMO FRIEND, HELP, WWAP
• IAEA JIIHP
• ICSU WCRP (GEWEX), IGBP, SCOWAR
• IWALC (IWRA, IAHR, IWA, ICID, ICOLD)
• WWC B of G
• WWF3 PUB, IWALC, C-W Dialogue

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Water in Political Arena

• UN Water Conference 1977 Mal del Plata
• Dublin Conference 1992
• Rio Summit 1992 Agenda 21
• Stockholm Water Conference
• WWC, GWP 1996
• WWF Marakech, Hague, Kyoto
• WWAP, UN Y of Freshwater

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???? (Takeuchi Kuniyoshi)

• ????????? ?????????????(???????)
• ???????????????
• ???????(IAHS)??(2001-2005)
• UNESCO???????(IHP)?????????
• ?????RR2002??????????

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Promotes the study of Hydrology as an aspect of
the earth sciences and of water resources.
International Association of Hydrological Sciences
Since 1922. Belongs to ICSU under IUGG. About
3000 members. Free of charge. Newsletters, HSJ,
Red Books. Scientific Assembly, Symposia, WSs.
http//www.cig.ensmp.fr/iahs/
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International Commissions

• Surface Water (ICSW)
• Groundwater (ICGW)
• Continental Erosion (ICCE)
• Snow and Ice (ICSI)
• Water Quality (ICWQ)
• Water Resources Systems (ICWRS)
• Remote Sensing Data Transmission (ICRSDT)
• Atmosphere-Soil-Vegetation Relations (ICASVR)
• Tracers (ICT)

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IAHS Decade of Prediction in Ungaged Basins (PUB)

• An IAHS initiative to integrate hydrological
  sciences and technologies to make hydrological
  predictions possible in ungaged basins.

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International Association of Hydrological Sciences
http//www.cig.ensmp.fr/iahs
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PUB Operational Programm 1.     
Introduction 1.1 What is an Ungauged Basin? 1.2
Nature of Predictions 1.2.1 But what do we
want to predict? 1.2.2       Definition of
"Prediction in Ungauged Basins" 1.2.3 Natural
and Human-Induced Variability 1.3 Available
Options for PUB 1.4 Causes of the PUB Problem
Scientific Challenges Ahead 1.4.1 Fundamental,
Theoretical Deficiencies 1.4.2 Inadequacy of
Models and Modelling Approaches 1.4.3
Inadequate, Inappropriate Data 1.5 Opportunities
that Can Assist The Way Forward 1.5.1
Fundamental, Theoretical Deficiencies 1.5.2
Inadequacy of Models and Modelling Approaches
1.5.3 Inadequate, Inappropriate Data 2. PUB
Scientific Programme PUB Scientific Theme 1
Theoretical Hydrology PUB Scientific Theme 2
Observational Hydrology PUB Scientific Theme 3
Model Diagnostics and Inter-Comparison PUB
Scientific Theme 4 Advanced Data Collection
Technologies 3. PUB Basin Network 4. PUB
Implementation Programme PUB Implementation
Theme 5 Application Strategies and
Connectivity Connectivity to existing
programs Connectivity to Existing Commission
Activities PUB Implementation Theme 6
Developing Countries and Capacity Building
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What is PUB?

• PUB is an IAHS decadal initiative to provide
  hydrological data necessary for development and
  management in ungaged or information poor basins.
  
• PUB is a scientific endeavor to assemble, promote
  and capacity-build the sciences and technology to
  predict and estimate the hydrological phenomena
  without depending on calibration data.

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What to be predicted and estimated?

• The hydrological phenomena to be predicted and
  estimated include precipitation, land surface
  processes, stream flow, groundwater flow, snow
  and ice, sediments, water quality etc.

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What to be used for PUB?

• The knowledge and means to be utilized include
  all currently and potentially available sciences
  and technology such as theoretical hydrology,
  remote sensing, GIS, tracers, physically based
  distributed hydrological models, meso-scale met
  models, all the knowledge to be learned from in
  situ observations in experimental basins etc.

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Why is PUB now? PUB has always been an ultimate
goal of hydrology ever since its birth.

• Hydrological data are endangered species.
• Urgent needs for data especially in developing
  countries for their development and management
  of water. (Water crisis)
• Current theoretical and technological
  developments are remarkable on hydrological
  process studies, scale issues, physically based
  hydrological modeling, remote sensing, meso-scale
  met models etc. (Readiness)
• Time to show how science is useful and provide
  the necessary data to whom and where needed.

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• Decline of hydrological observation networks
• Available technologies

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Dynamic of the river gauges in the pan-Arctic
drainage basin and data available in total
Russian Arctic Net.
From Jeanna Balanishnikova, State Inst. of
Hydrology, Russia
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1986
1992
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Why data network declines?

• In many cases, data closure results from
  withdrawal of government subsidies, forcing
  operational services to recoup costs through
  commercial sales, often with limited success.

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Available Options for PUBs

• Observe on site FRIEND, HELP ltFunding gt
• Analogy from nearby gaged basins Statistical
  inform transfer. lttransferability, nearby basinsgt
• Observe by RS GPM, MW, SAR, GPS, laser
  altimeter, GRACE ltResolutn, interpretn, GT datagt
• Hydrol model simulation Dist phys based hydrol
  models. ltData, param ident, model
  transferability.gt
• Integrated meteo hydro model simulation
  4DDAmeso-scale nesting, pbdhm. ltmodel, datagt

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Meso-scale meteorological nesting models

• RAMS (Ibbit et al., 1999)
• MRI/NPD-NHM (Saito et al., 2001)
• MM5 (Chen and Dudhia, 2001)
• IRSHAM (Kavvas et al., 1995)
• ARPS (U. Oklahoma)

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??????????????????????????????????(IRSHAM)???????
????????(??)
?????? ????
1995? 3?1? 3?2? 3?3?
????????? 19,501 km2
??????? ??????NCEP/NCAR (200km,
1947-present) DEM, ???????USGS EROS
(1km) ??UN-FAO (0.925 km)
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RAMS Model Rainfall Nov 4-10, 199477x77 10 km
grid cells
mm rain
Tasman Sea
km10
PacificOcean
km10
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170E
Tasman Sea
45S
PacificOcean
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Orari
Opihi
Timaru
Pareora
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Buller River at Te Kuha (6350 km2) - modelled
flow using RAMS model rain based on GWM analyses
6350
5080
Measured flow
Flow m3/s
Modelled flow
2540

• Calibration of models to flow data makes only a
  small improvement to flood forecast quality.

1270
0
Time in hours
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Hydrological Simulation of
Large Basins
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BTOPMC (A YAMANASHI Model)
Both OF and BF generate at each
gridcell, according to local SD reflecting
block average SD SD(i) SD m ( ? - ?(i)) Flow
routing over all the flow segments.
Stream Network
At each gridcell i
For all stream segments
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The Digital Stream network of Mekong Basin
94E, 34N
1. DEM data source GTOPO30(USGS Global 30
Arc Second Elevation Data Set Http//www1.gsi-mc.
go.jp/gtopo30/ Gtopo30.html)
(Threshold 3 grids)
2. Precipitation NOAA CD-ROM daily at 15
stations in 1987
3. Streamflow L. Mekong Hy. Y. B. daily at 5
sites in 1987
Grid size dx5.3km, dy5.54km
112E, 8N
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Time Table of PUB

• 28-29 March 2002 Preparation WS in Kofu.
• June 2002 Draft Science implementation plans
• 20-22 November 2002 Kick-off WS in Brasilia
• 2002-03 AGU, CGS, EGS, BAHC
• .
• March 2003 Participate to WWF3, Kyoto. Science
  for Society What can hydrology do for ungaged
  basins?
• July 2003 Sapporo IUGG/IAHS S1.W7.JMH
• Many more to come.

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FIRST ANNUNCEMENT   Kick-Off Workshop on IAHS
DECADE OF PREDICTION IN UNGAGED BASINS (PUB) -
Hydrological Sciences on Mission -  
20-22 November 2002 Brasilia, Brazil
Organized by IAHS and Brasilia University (UNB),
CGEE Center of Strategic Studies Management and
Brazilian WR Association   Sponsored by IAHS,
MEXT Japan, IAEA, WWF3 (WWAP, NAH) Supported
by UNESCO, WMO, CEOP, GEWEX, HELP, FRIEND, CHASM,
CAUHSI (IWRA, IGBP-BAHC, WCRP, NASA, NASDA, ESA )