CLIMATE CHANGE SYMPOSIUM PART I

1
CLIMATE CHANGE SYMPOSIUM PART I

• PANELS
• WATER IMPACTS
• URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS

2
Symposium Time Table900 1155 A.M.

• 5 minutes (900-905) ASCE Presidents Welcome
  (David Mongan)
• 15 minutes (905-920) Moderator Remarks (George
  Bugliarello)
• 55 minutes (920-1015) WATER IMPACTS PANEL
• 10 minutes (920-930) Panel Host Remarks
  (Leslie Ewing)
• 20 minutes (930-950) Peter Rogers
• 20 minutes (950-1010) Walter Vergara
• 15 minutes (1010-1025) Discussion
• 10 minutes (1025-1035) BREAK

(continued)
3
Symposium Time Table (continued)

• 55 minutes (1035-1140) URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE
  IMPACT PANEL
• 10 minutes (1035-1045) Panel Host Remarks
  (Brian Roberts)
• 20 minutes (1045-1105) Darren Wachtler
• 20 minutes (1105-1125) Scott L. Douglass
• 15 minutes (1125-1140) Discussion
• 15 minutes (1140-1155) GENERAL DISCUSSION

4
Moderator Remarks(George Bugliarello)

• Focus of the Panels
• ENGINEERING CONSEQUENCES

5
World Population

• The Urban Explosion
• 50 of world population live in cities, from 5
  in 1900
• 70 of world population live in areas exposed to
• Floods, storm surges, sea level changes
• All increasingly impacted by climate change
• Rapid growth of megacities (gt10 million
  inhabitants)
• Cities explosively impact environment and climate
• Water Tables
• Heat Islands
• Atmospheric Pollution
• Footprints
• Stormwater Management in Expanding Urban Areas
• Increasing concerns about urban sustainability

6
Climate Changes

• Examples of expected temperature impacts
• 1C Change
• 2C Change

• Disappearance of Arctic glaciers
• Weakening of density-driven Atlantic thermohaline
  circulation

• Less water (up to 30) in Mediterranean and South
  Africa
• Irreversible melting of Greenland ice-sheet

7
Climate Changese.g., J. Flückiger, Science,
Aug. 1, 2008

• Large climate shifts can occur within 1-3 yrs
  (e.g., Greenland ice)
• Models/simulations of climate shifts show shifts
  considerably slower than observed ones
• Possible causes of discrepancies
• Focus on changes in ocean circulation,
  temperature, but neglect of wind patterns,
  atmospheric circulation,
• Importance of precursor events
• e.g., in North Atlantic, changes in N2O
  concentrations

8
Consequences

• Urgency of addressing the impacts of
• Urban Population Explosion
• Rapid Climate Changes
• Both impacts interact
• Urbanization Climate Change
• No precedents on which to base our models

9
Consequences (continued)

• Imperatives
• NEW MODELS (epistemological models with broader
  inputs)
• NEW APPROACHES
• Assessment of validity of new models and
  approaches in comparison with real occurrences,
  iteratively