Power Politics Part II Chapter 2'2

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Power Politics Part IIChapter 2.2

• PSC 124
• Spring 2007
• Northrup

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Today

• Finish game theory from last time
• Chapter 2.2 Power Politics how stability is
  maintained

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Game Theory

• From mathematics
• Prediction of bargaining outcomes
• First used in IR in Cold War
• Different classes of games
• Zero-sum vs. non zero-sum
• Single vs. repeated
• Prisoners Dilemma (PD)

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Prisoners Dilemma

• You confess, other doesnt you go free
• You confess, other confesses reduced term
• You dont confess, other confesses long prison
  term for you, partner goes free
• Neither confesses short sentence for both

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The Payoff Matrix
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Robert Axelrod and Anatol RapaportCooperation

• Axelrod political scientist
• Rapaport - psychologist
• PD tournaments 1980s
• Tit-for-tat strategy
• Most successful strategy in tournament only
  works for repeated games. Why?
• Implications for realist and idealist
  perspectives?

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PD and Arms Races

• PD used to explain arms races
• Refraining from building nuclear arms is
  cooperating
• Building nuclear weapons is defecting
• Rational thing is to build
• Whats missing in this scenario?

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Anarchy

• Realist notion of anarchy lack of central
  government
• Implications from realist perspective
• Danger
• Power
• Self-help
• Alliances
• Capabilities

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The Role of International Norms

• Realist perspective on international norms
• Sovereignty-related norms
• Independence inside borders
• Equal status
• Non-interference
• Diplomatic relations
• Sources of tension around sovereignty
• Human rights
• Threats
• Global economy

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The Security Dilemma

• A negative consequence of anarchy
• Security dilemma
• States ensure own security
• Threat to other states
• Others build up defense in response
• Overall security is decreased
• Parallels PD game
• Realist and liberal view

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Balance of Power

• Definition
• Theory of balance of power
• Counterbalancing
• Maintenance
• Rules and principles
• Sovereignty

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Role of Alliances - Power Balancing

• Key role
• Balancing
• Bandwagoning

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Great Powers

• Most powerful states
• Influence
• Resources
• Military
• Economy
• Global outlook
• Defeat?
• Would membership change slowly or rapidly?
• Stability

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Great Powers Today

• Books identifies 7
• 5 permanent members of UN Security Council
• Nuclear weapons
• Germany and Japan
• GDP

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Great-Power Shares of World GDP, 2003
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Middle Powers

• Next level some factor lessens power
• What nations are middle powers more debatable
• Some large but not highly industrialized
• Some small but with special capabilities
• Examples?

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Power Distribution - Polarity

• Polarity
• Multipolar system
• number
• equality
• danger?
• Unipolar
• war
• danger?

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Polarity continued

• Bipolar system
• Two powers or rival alliance blocs
• Example?
• Tripolar system
• Three great centers of power
• Rare
• Why?
• Future?

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Power Transition Theory

• AFK Organski 1958
• Why dominant powers or hegemons use power
• stability
• Security
• Challengers
• Who could challenge?
• War
• Transition occurs between existing power and
  challenger
• Peace when one state firmly in power

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Hegemony

• Definition
• Hegemonic stability theory
• Ambivalence in US about its hegemony
• Internationalist vs isolationalist mood
• Unilateralism vs. multilateralism (Iraq)
• Role of moral leader vs. realism position

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Alliances

• From the book, should know
• Definition
• Why important part of balance of power
• What determines the credibility of an alliance in
  deterring enemies
• General understanding of three current major
  alliances NATO, US-Japanese Security Treaty, and
  CIS
• Regional alliance non-aligned movement

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Bush Doctrine
AP Photo

• Policy that permits pre-emptive war as right of
  self defense against terrorists shift from
  containment
• Duty to pursue unilateral military actions when
  no acceptable multi-lateral options
• The US has, and intends to keep, military
  strengths beyond challenge stay sole military
  super power
• Actively promote democracy in all regions of
  the world

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Bush Doctrine

• How can it be understood in relation to the
  security dilemma?
• Reaction to hegemon?
• Alliances?
• International norms?
• International organizations? (Realist or
  liberal/idealist doctrine?)