The Regional Climate

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The Regional Climate

• Roger A. Pielke Sr.
• Professor State Climatologist
• Colorado State University and
• Duke University
• CSU Speaker Series on Water in the Sustainable
  Landscape Conservation and Beyond
• Fort Collins, Colorado
• February 2, 2004

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http//ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/magazine.php
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Colorado Extremes
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US Drought Monitor
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April 1 Snowpack
http//www.co.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/data/historic.htm
l
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Colorado snowpack by basin
http//www.co.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/data/getsummaries
.html
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Colorado Statewide Snowpack
http//www.co.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/data/basins.html
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Colorado Statewide Reservoir Levels
http//www.co.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/watersupply/
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WY2004 through Dec 2003
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12 Month SPI
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48 Month SPI
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Projected Conditions at 0.2 Probability Level 12
Month SPI at 6 months
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Projected Conditions at 0.5 Probability Level 12
Month SPI at 6 months
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Projected Conditions at 0.8 Probability Level 12
Month SPI at 6 months
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Can We Predict the Future of Precipitation in
Colorado?
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TemperatureDec 2003 Feb 2004
From the Colorado Prediction Center http//www.cpc
.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/1
3_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html
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PrecipitationDec 2003 Feb 2004
From the Colorado Prediction Center http//www.cpc
.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/1
3_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html
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Figure provided by T.N. Chase, University of
Colorado, Boulder.
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Maximum-minimum temperature sensor (MMTS)
installation near Lindon, Colorado.
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Maximum-minimum temperature sensor (MMTS)
installation near John Martin Reservoir,
Colorado.
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Map of study region, showing all surveyed COOP
sites. The USHCN sites are indicated by stars.
The following photos are for HCN sites.
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Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure
characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Eads,
CO. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while
panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed from
the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W,
respectively.
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Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure
characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Holly,
CO. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while
panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed from
the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W,
respectively.
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Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure
characteristics for the NWS COOP station near
Rocky Ford, Colorado. Panel a) shows the
temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate
the exposures viewed from the temperature sensor
looking N, E, S, and W, respectively. (CRS-Cotton
Region Shelter)
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Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure
characteristics of the NWS COOP station at
Trinidad, Colorado. Panel a) shows the
temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate
the exposures viewed from the temperature sensor
looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.
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Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure
characteristics of the NWS COOP station at
Cheyenne Wells, Colorado. Panel a) shows the
temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate
the exposures viewed from the temperature sensor
looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.
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Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure
characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Lamar,
Colorado. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor,
while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures
viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E,
S, and W, respectively.
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Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure
characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Wray,
Colorado. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor,
while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures
viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E,
S, and W, respectively.
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Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure
characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Las
Animas, Colorado. Panel a) shows the temperature
sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the
exposures viewed from the temperature sensor
looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.
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Fort Morgan site showing images of the cardinal
directions from the sensor (from Hanamean et al.
2003)
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Policy Statement on Climate Variability and
Change by the American Association of State
Climatologists (AASC)

• 1. Past climate is a useful guide to the future
  - Assessing past climate conditions provides a
  very effective analysis tool to assess societal
  and environmental vulnerability to future
  climate, regardless of the extent the future
  climate is altered by human activity. Our current
  and future vulnerability, however, will be
  different than in the past, even if climate were
  not to change, because society and the
  environment change as well. Decision makers need
  assessments of how climate vulnerability has
  changed.
• 2. Climate prediction is complex with many
  uncertainties. The AASC recognizes climate
  prediction is an extremely difficult undertaking.
  For time scales of a decade or more,
  understanding the empirical accuracy of such
  predictions - called verification - is simply
  impossible, since we have to wait a decade or
  longer to assess the accuracy of the forecasts.
• Available at
  http//ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/policystatement.php
  

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Colorado Climate Center
Pielke Research Grouphttp//blue.atmos.colostate.
edu

• Data and Power Point Presentations available for
  downloading
• http//ccc.atmos.colostate.edu
• click on Drought
• then click on Presentations