3' Development of Nanophotonics Markets

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3. Development of Nanophotonics Markets

• Michael Heuken Aixtron
• T.P. Pearsall EPIC

2
Break-out Group 3

• Development of a Nanophotonics Market
• Leaders Heuken and Pearsall
• Key Questions
• A. Development of a nanophotonics market in a
  major application?
• What is the application?
• What could be the trigger?
• Role of politics
• B. Market Volumes vs Time
• When must technology breakthroughs occur?
• Gold Room after the Coffee Break

3
Definitions are important

• What is nanophotonics
• Is stained glass nanophotonic?
• Markets exist for applications, not technologies.

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Specific Application Optical Disk Drive

• Seagate Optical disk drive
• Hard magnetic materials allow to make small
  magnetic domains
• You need to heat up the area first , then flip
  the domain
• To focus the energy in a smaller than the
  diffraction limit
• Use a plasmonic lens structure to focus the
  energy
• Trigger
• Cant reach the higher density of storage using
  soft materials
• Manufacturing investment felt to be moderate
  generational upgrade
• Political
• On the Disk industry roadmap uncertain effect

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Specific Application Backlighting

• LCD back-lighting by LEDs
• Advantage of LEDS
• Better chromaticity
• Makes LCD brighter better color rendering
• High price is an obstacle to implementation
• Patent blockage
• Trigger
• Develop LED technology that gets around exisiting
  patents
• Processes using other kinds of LEDs, like OLEDs
• Politcal
• Important IP issues

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Specific Application Secure Communications

• Highly secure High Data rate Communication with
  quantum cryptography
• Free-space note different wavelengths and
  different sources
• Fibre guided
• Trigger for application
• Development of a single quantum dot emitter
  implement Q-bits
• Electrically driven, of course
• Lower cost device like LED or VCSEL
• Political input
• Value of 100 safe communication
• Importance for military and commercial
  applications
• How do you treat criminal communication?

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Preliminary Data from Yole Développement

• Question One
• Some analysis of high and low impact technologies
• Question two
• A projection on the time to market

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Market growth and size for applications targeted
by nanophotonics
Photovoltaic
Imaging (IR CMOS)
Relative market growth
Size of bubble corresponds to Market size in 2009
LED lighting
Flat panel displays (LCD, plasma, OLED, FED)
Optical interconnect
10B
Data telecom (laser, switches, amplifier, filter)
Data storage (laser, holographic memory)
1B
Instrumentation (SNOM probes)
0.1 B
Components
Systems
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Definitions of the different impact levels of
nanophotonic

• Impact of nanophotonic on the application field
• Low impact
• Devices with mainly incremental benefits (no real
  breakthroughs).
• No major new devices are emerging because of
  nanophotonics.
• Nanophotonic device sales are estimated to be
  less than 1 for the considered application in
  2009.
• Medium impact
• Significant benefits compared to traditional
  technologies
• Some new devices are emerging because of
  nanophotonics, but with a limited impact on the
  application field.
• Nanophotonic device sales are estimated to be
  between 1 to 10 for the considered application
  in 2009.
• Strong impact
• Very important benefits compared to traditional
  technologies
• New devices are developed with an important
  impact on the application field market
  structure reorganization, booster of the
  application field sales.
• Nanophotonic device sales are estimated to be
  higher than 10 for the considered application
  in 2009.

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Nanophotonic impact on global market volumes
Photovoltaic
Photovoltaic
Imaging (IR CMOS)
Imaging (IR CMOS)
Relative market growth
Size of bubble corresponds to Market size in 2009
LED lighting
10B
Flat panel displays (LCD, plasma, OLED, FED)
Optical interconnect
1B
Data telecom (laser, switches, amplifier, filter)
Data storage (laser, holographic memory)
Data storage (laser, holographic memory)
0.1 B
Red high impact Orange medium impact Yellow
low impact
Instrumentation (SNOM probes)
Instrumentation (SNOM probes)
Component
System
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Time-to-market
Schedule when most of the nanophotonics devices
will move to applied RD and first market
applications.
Instrumentation/ metrology
Calendar as proposed by MONA project
Sensors
Photovoltaics
Data storage
Optical interconnects
Datacoms/ telecoms
Displays
Imaging
Lighting
Time to market
2005
2010
2015
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
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Time-to-market
Compare with previous slide. Breakout group
advanced the timing of first commercial
applications. Definitions are key to usefulness
of such a calendar
Instrumentation/ metrology
OCT?
Sensors
Agree or Disagree?
The Break-out group disagreed with the timing.
Next generation nanostrucutres for photon
harvesting nanosolar, konarka , go to the web
site. See Spie Digital library
Photovoltaics
Data storage
Seagate has plasmonic tip for laser assisted
writing
Revenue estimate?
Optical interconnects
Datacoms/ telecoms
Displays
In general we feel that nanophotonic technology
is already on the market in most of these
applications
Quantum dots for Imaging
Do functionalized nanoparticles for imaging count?
Lighting
Time to market
2005
2010
2015
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014