POPULATION CHANGE IN NEW BRUNSWICK

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POPULATION CHANGE IN NEW BRUNSWICK

• Barry Edmonston
• Population Resource Group
• University of Victoria

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IMMIGRATION FLOWS

• About 250,000 annual immigrants to Canada
• Most settle in three large metropolitan areas
• Rapidity, size, and concentration of the in-flow
• Relatively few immigrants in other places,
  especially smaller towns and rural areas
• Nevertheless, immigrants can have large effects
  for smaller populations and there are recent
  program to encourage settlement in new
  destinations

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INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION

• Interprovincial migration is large about 500,000
  people migrate annually, and more than 2 million
  persons change their province of residence over a
  five-year period
• For Atlantic provinces, these flows are usually
  larger than international migration
• In recent years, large flows into Alberta,
  British Columbia, and Ontario

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REPERCUSSIONS OF LOW FERTILITY

• Because of low childbearing levels, migration
  has become the major demographic force affecting
  local population growth
• Communities and provinces will experience
  population decreases in the absence of
  counterbalancing in-migration
• Understandable that municipalities and provinces
  are interested in programs to reduce
  out-migration and to promote in-migration

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TODAYS PRESENTATION

• Components of population change in New Brunswick
• Alternative population futures for New Brunswick
• Recent migration flows in New Brunswick
• New immigrant destinations in Canada

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UNPEELING THE POPULATION ONION

• What factors affect population change in New
  Brunswick?
• Lets examine births, death, international
  migration, and interprovincial migration trends
  for the past fifteen years
• After looking at annual components of change,
  lets look at the relative effects on long-term
  population growth

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POPULATION GROWTH FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991 TO 2005
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ANNUAL NATURAL INCREASE FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991
TO 2005
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ANNUAL NET MIGRATION FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991 TO
2005
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ANNUAL CHANGE FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991 TO 2005
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ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR NEW BRUNSWICKS POPULATION

• It is hard to see the future when we are in the
  midst of a changing population
• Current New Brunswick population is greatly
  affected by current age structure and the age
  distribution of migrants arriving and leaving
• A useful model is to, first, imagine what New
  Brunswicks population would be with
  replacement-level fertility and no net migration

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BASIC COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE FOR NEW
BRUNSWICK, 2005

• Population is 752,000 and slowly decreasing
• Births6,880 (with TFR1.4 children)
• Deaths6,561
• So, annual natural increase is 300, but will
  decrease steadily in future years and staying
  negative as long as below replacement-level
  fertility prevails

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MIGRATION COMPONENTS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 2005

• Immigrants1,330
• Emigrants-300
• So, net immigration is 1,030
• In-migrants from other provinces10,950
• Out-migrants to other provinces12,600
• So, net interprovincial migration is -1,650
• And, overall net migration is -650

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COMPARISON OF CURRENT CHANGES FOR LONG-TERM
POPULATION FUTURE

• If there were replacement-level fertility (about
  10,200 births instead of current 6,900), New
  Brunswicks population would stabilize at
  702,000, or about 50,000 few people than in 2005
• How much does current fertility and current
  migration affect this long-term population level
  of 702,000?

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CONTRIBUTION OF BIRTHS AND MIGRATION TO LONG-TERM
POPULATION LEVEL OF 702,000

• Current births
  -9,100
• International Migration, Immigration 2,100
• Emigration
  -300
• Domestic Migration, In-Migration 15,100
• Out-Migration
  -17,800
• Overall effect of Migration
  -900
• This tells us that long-term population is
  declining by -10,000 (-9,100 and -900)
  each year current birth and migration levels
  continue

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FEMALE AGE DISTRIBUTION FOR NEW BRUNSWICK
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DEMOGRAPHIC OPTIONS ARE LIMITED

• In the context of current demographic changes,
  the basic options are narrow increase births by
  48 to 10,200 per year or increase in-migration
  by 60 to about 20,000 per year
• The current changes and options have important
  effects on New Brunswicks future age
  distribution as well
• Can fertility or migration be affected
  (practically, effectively, at low cost)?

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WHO COMES IMMIGRANT NUMBERS

• In recent years, the annual number of immigrant
  arrivals in the Atlantic Provinces has varied
  between 2,800 and 5,000
• The largest share of immigrants have settled in
  Nova Scotia
• In order to compare provinces, it is useful to
  calculate the number of immigrant arrivals
  relative to population size

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IMMIGRANT ARRIVAL RATES FOR CANADA, 2002
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MIGRATION IN THE ATLANTIC PROVINCES

• Trends for 1996 to 2001 for (i) Canada-born
  residents (ii) resident immigrants who were in
  Canada in 1996 and (iii) immigrant arrivals who
  arrived in Canada between 1996 and 2001
• We look at five groups (i) children and youth
  (ii) post-secondary students (iii) non-working
  adults (iv) working adults and (v) retirees

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NATIVITY OF MIGRANTS

• Useful to examine three groups
• Canada-born residents who move interprovincially
• Resident immigrants who were in Canada five years
  ago and move interprovincially
• Immigrants arrivals during the past five years
  and who make their initial provincial settlement
  (they might move later, of course)

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MIGRANT TYPES

• Migrants move for different reasons, with many
  moving primarily for employment.
• Consider five types
• Children less than 18 years
• Post-secondary students, 18 to 25 years and
  attending school full-time
• Non-working adults, 18 to 64 years and not
  working
• Working adults, 18 years and working
• Retirees, 65 years and not working

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MIGRANTS IN THE ATLANTIC PROVINCES 1996-2001
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NATIVITY VARIATONS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001
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TYPES OF MIGRANTS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001
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CANADA-BORN MIGRANTS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001
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RESIDENT IMMIGRANTS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001
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IMMIGRANT ARRIVALS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001
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BROADER CONTEXT FOR MIGRATION

• Immigrants constitute almost one-fifth of the
  Canadian population but are less common in small
  towns and rural areas
• There has been a continued out-migration of
  younger adults from smaller towns and rural areas
  across Canada
• Provinces with more people in smaller towns and
  rural areas are more likely to experience
  out-migration

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THEORIES ABOUT WHERE MIGRANTS SETTLE

• Urbanization is worldwide a defining aspect of
  migration is that it is often from rural to urban
  areas
• Many factors influence choice of settlement
  destinations, including economic, social, and
  cultural factors
• Two types of settlement processes persistence of
  established locations and emergence of new
  locations for migrants

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PERSISTENCE OF ESTABLISHED LOCATIONS

• Over time, migrants develop social networks that
  provide relationships for movement
• Migrants from a particular ethnic background
  develop ethnic-based resources
• Local communities respond to migrant flows in
  ways that assist the continued arrival of
  newcomers
• Once migration is established, continued
  migration usually persists for established
  migrant groups

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NEW LOCATIONS FOR MIGRANTS

• New locations challenge the persistence
  perspectivewhy do they arise?
• New or unusually rapid employment growth
• New employment sectors that recruit workers
• Centralization of employment, such as
  meatpacking, in areas with limited workers
• Sponsorship or deliberate recruitment of newcomers

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IMMIGRANT SETTLEMENT AND RESETTLEMENT

• Migration is closely tied to local economic
  growth and employment opportunities
• Whether economic development or population growth
  comes first is a debatable point
• However, a communitys success in generating
  employment growth will ultimately determine the
  effect on migration for both Canada-born and
  immigrants

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CANADAS IMMIGRANT DESTINATIONS, 2002
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TOP TEN SMALL TOWNS RECEIVING IMMIGRANTS
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IMMIGRATION TO SMALL TOWNS

• 7 communities have strong employment growth some
  in only one industry
• Remaining 3 communities have diversified, growing
  employment
• Manitoba nominee program is important
• Several of the communities have immigrant
  recruitment programs and work hard to attract
  newcomers

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CONCLUDING COMMENTS

• Low fertilility in New Brunswick poses population
  challenges for next decade
• Immigrant arrivals in small towns suggests that
  new destinations for immigrants can be developed
• Employment, community programs, and provincial
  immigration selection policies can create new
  immigration destinations
• Chicken or the egg jobs and migrants

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THATS ALL FOLKS!