The causes and consequences of rising divorce rates

1
Sociology of Industrial Societies

• The causes and consequences of rising divorce
  rates

Week 4 HT08
2
The causes and consequences of rising divorce
rates

• Substantial increase in the divorce rate from
  c.1960 to c.1990
• Divorce rates highest for more recent
• marriage cohorts
• More recent marriage cohorts are
• divorcing sooner into their marriages
• Patterns puzzling because early marriage
• traditionally a strong divorce risk factor,
• but delayed marriage in recent cohorts
• Patterns worrying because marriage
• thought to offer significant physiological,
• psychological, economic and social
• benefits to both adults and children

Marriage survival rates in Britain by cohort
Source Chan 2005
The causes and consequences of rising divorce
rates
Week 4 HT08
3
Why are married couples increasingly likely to
get divorced?

• Marriage trading and specialization model (Becker
  1977)
• Married people divorce if the expected utility of
• divorcing (and possibly remarrying) is greater
• than that of staying married
• Utility of remaining married has declined with
• declining sex role specialization and womens
• increasing economic independence
• Mate search model (Oppenheimer 1997)
• Longer mate search period increases the
• chances of making a good match initially
• But longer mate search prompted by
• greater uncertainty about
• (a) achieving a good match at the outset

The causes and consequences of rising divorce
rates
Week 4 HT08
4
Why are married couples increasingly likely to
get divorced?

• Declining sex role specialization?
• Divorce risk lowest for spouses occupying
  traditional sex roles
• but similarly low risk where both spouses in
  employment
• highest divorce risk linked to unemployment,
  especially that of husbands

Divorce risk in every 1,000 marriage years in
Finland by spouses economic activity statuses
Source Jalovaara 2003
The causes and consequences of rising divorce
rates
Week 4 HT08
5
Why are married couples increasingly likely to
get divorced?

• Womens increasing economic independence?
• Divorce risk similar for all income levels of
  husband
• except where wifes income higher than that of
  the husband
• and larger discrepancy associated with larger
  divorce risk

Divorce risk in every 1,000 marriage years in
Finland by spouses income status
Source Jalovaara 2003
The causes and consequences of rising divorce
rates
Week 4 HT08
6
Why are married couples increasingly likely to
get divorced?

• Sex differences in divorce seeking?
• Divorces increasingly initiated
• by wives rather than husbands
• Roughly equal rates of initiation
• in 1950 in the UK
• Divergence since early 1970s
• Stabilization at ratio of approx
• 7030 since end of 1980s
• Women more likely than men
• to initiate divorce when
• Wife works
• Financial problems in household

Source National Statistics on Initiators of
Divorce
The causes and consequences of rising divorce
rates
Week 4 HT08
7
Why are married couples increasingly likely to
get divorced?

• Advantageousness of longer mate search period?
• Marriage delay may not improve
• chances of a good match
• Example of premarital cohabitation
• Most spells fairly short-lived, ending in
• separation rather than marriage
• Most marriages preceded by
• cohabitation spell
• But couples cohabiting before
• marriage more likely to divorce
• Poor match at the outset? Or
• limited possibilities of creating/
• sustaining good match via

Effects of pre-marital cohabitation on divorce
Source Wagner and Weib (2006)
The causes and consequences of rising divorce
rates
Week 4 HT08
8
What are the consequences of divorce for adults?

• Marriage appears to have major protective health
  benefits
• Married people live longer than divorced Marital
  status linked
• and never married people to mortality/morbidity
  for men especially
• Similar patterns in relation to physical
• and psychological health

Probability of survival by marital status
Women Men
Source Waite (1995)
The causes and consequences of rising divorce
rates
Week 4 HT08
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What are the consequences of divorce for adults?

• Marriage associated with superior economic
  circumstances
• Married people tend to have higher
• household incomes and higher per
• capita wealth
• Divorce apparently about as
• economically disadvantageous
• as being widowed or never married
• Causal effects of marriage on
• personal prosperity?
• Or selection effects, with causality
• running in the opposite direction?
• i.e. are those who are more prosperous
• (and healthy) more likely to become,
• and to stay, married?

Median household income (s) by marital status
Source Waite (1995)
Source Waite (1995)
The causes and consequences of rising divorce
rates
Week 4 HT08
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What are the consequences of divorce for children
later in life?

• Divorce linked to poorer socio-economic outcomes
  for affected children
• Often considerable drop in family income
• at the time of marital dissolution
• Although such families tend to be
• poorer beforehand than families
• that remain intact
• Lower incomes in divorced families
• implicated in lower levels of
• childrens educational achievement
• Longer-term links between parental
• divorce and subsequently lower
• earnings in adulthood, mediated
• mainly via lower education

Educational achievement in Sweden by family type
Source Jonsson and Gahler (1997)
The causes and consequences of rising divorce
rates
Week 4 HT08
11
What are the consequences of divorce for children
later in life?

• Experience of parental divorce in childhood a
  predictor of adult family formation patterns
• Higher rates of of pre-marital childbearing
• Higher rates of pre-marital cohabitation
• Higher likelihood of marital dissatisfaction and
  conflict
• Higher likelihood of marital separation and
  divorce

Effects of parental divorce on likelihood of
divorce
Source Wagner and Weib 2006
The causes and consequences of rising divorce
rates
Week 4 HT08
12
What are the consequences of divorce for children
later in life?

• Possibility of lasting psychological impact of
  parental divorcebut evidence points to family
  conflict, rather than marital dissolution
• Given marital conflict, childrens longer-term
  outcomes improved by divorce?
• Likely that selection effects again play a role
  factors predictive of marital dissolution, not
  dissolution itself, may matter more (Ni
  Bhrolcháin 2001)

Source Gahler 1998
The causes and consequences of rising divorce
rates
Week 4 HT08
13
The causes and consequences of rising divorce
rates

• Why are married couples increasingly likely to
  divorce?
• Declining sex role specialization a problem where
  husband not occupying traditional sex role?
• Womens increasing economic independence makes
  acting on marital dissatisfaction more feasible?
• Extended mate search period unable to fully
  compensate for greater uncertainty about good
  match? Initially? As marriages progress?
• How does divorce affect adults and children?
• Divorced and never married adults appear to have
  poorer health and poorer socio-economic
  circumstances
• Those who experienced parental divorce in
  childhood appear to have poorer economic, social
  and psychological outcomes later in life
• But unclear to what degree these effects are
  causally consequent on divorce, or are causally
  prior due to differential selection into divorce

The causes and consequences of rising divorce
rates
Week 4 HT08