International Futures: Choices in the Face of Uncertainty

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International Futures Choices in the Face of
Uncertainty

• Barry B. Hughes

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Chapter 2 Global Change

• Types of Growth
• Exponential Growth
• S-Curve
• Bell Curve
• Linear Threshold Change

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Demographic Change

• also known as global population growth
• grows at annual rate of 2.0 percent
• usually follows the shape of the S-shape curve

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Economic Change

• listed in terms of gross world product (goods and
  services)
• exhibits an exponential pattern of growth
• geographic region and economic sector

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Change in Energy

• physical energy feeds the human economy
• takes on the shape of a bell-shaped curve
• fossil fuels one of our main resources
• U.S. oil production continues to decline

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Change in Agriculture and Food

• ethical questions being asked
• gross national product
• calories per capita daily
• global food production rates

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Environmental Change

• human impact on the environment
• dangers of carbon dioxide
• the rainforests and what is happening to it

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Technological Change

• takes on the pattern of an envelope curve
• exhibits exponential patterns
• transportation speeds and their advancements

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Sociopolitical Change

• changes that affect the lives of individuals and
  in social organizations
• GNP, again
• education
• urbanization, or inter-human contact