Candidate Selection

1
Candidate Selection

• First essay assignment reminder
• Last time campaign finance
• Getting the nomination
• Who runs
• The nomination process

2
Essay assignment

• Write no more than 3 double-spaced pages
  (exclusive of title/abstract page and references
  page) on the following
• Are major-party nominees for president different
  systematically today from the nominees typically
  produced before the 1930s? Why or why not?
• Include a one-paragraph (short!) abstract on a
  separate title page, summarizing your answer
• example of abstract is on the website
• 3-paragraph introduction hook, thesis, roadmap
• Due in class Oct. 13

3
Last time campaign finance

• Candidates get money from individuals, PACs,
  parties, self-contributions, and federal matching
  funds (primaries) or federal grants (convention
  and general election)
• Corporations and labor unions cant give money
  directly to candidates, but
• can give through PACS
• can bundle individual donations informally
• can make independent expenditures on behalf of
  candidates or spend on issue advocacy campaigns
  via 527 committees (more than 60 days before the
  election)

4
The basics

• Donations
• federal law limits how much an individual may
  donate per election to candidates, parties and
  political action committees
• no limit on individual donations to 527
  committees, although disclosure is required to
  IRS and/or state agencies (not FEC)
• Expenditures
• Federal matching funds for primaries federal
  grants for general elections, conventions
• No limits in each phase if a candidate opts out
• No effective limits on independent expenditures,
  but restrictions on electioneering ads in 60 days
  prior to general election (must be hard
  money-financed)

5
Donations restrictions

• Hard money donations to candidates (for
  primaries)
• individuals now limited to 2,000 per candidate
  per election (primary, general, special) up to
  37.5K per 2-year cycle multi-candidate PACs
  limited to 5,000
• PACs raise money from individuals, who are capped
  in totals they can give to parties and PACs
• individuals can give up to 25K to national
  party, 10K to each state/local party, 5K to
  each PAC subject to overall 57.5K aggregate
  limit (including PAC donations excludes
  state/local parties) upheld in McConnell v. FEC
• corporations and unions cannot give directly, but
  can cover overhead for PACs money must be raised
  from individuals
• Soft money spending by parties for party
  building and GOTV Independent expenditures and
  issue advocacy spending by third-party groups
  (527 committees) donations are unlimited for
  individuals some restrictions apply to
  corporations

6
spending constraints

• Matching funds in the primaries
• Individuals donations UP to 250 each can be
  matched if candidate raises at least 5K in each
  of 20 states at 250 per or less
• To retain eligibility once primaries begin, must
  get 10 percent of vote in two consecutive
  primaries or 20 percent in one
• Candidates personal contribs limited to 50K if
  accepting fed. dollars (see Perot)
• Primary spending limited by state and overall
  (about 36.5 million this time)
• A candidate who secures nomination early may be
  spent out well before the convention (Dole, 1996
  only 1.5 million to spend between April and
  August)
• Convention grant 15 million
• General election limit 75 million (grant from
  feds)

7
Out or In?

• Federal law limits aggregate primary spending by
  a candidate to around 37 million if accepting
  matching funds
• by Aug. 20, Bush had raised 338 million (264
  million before the convention) and spent 222
  million (compare to 186 million total in 2000)
• Kerry raised 311 million (236.5 million before
  the convention) and spent 198 million. He
  reimbursed himself for some 6 million of
  self-financing during the primaries and has
  received
• General election funding limited to 75 million

8
Candidate selection

• Who becomes a candidate?
• In 2004, 5 current/ex-senators, 2 MCs, 1
  governor, 1 ex-general, 1 minister/activist and 1
  total looney ran for Dem. nomination
• Cabinet secretaries were common nominees early in
  U.S. history
• governors, senators, veeps are most common
  nominees since the Civil War
• fundraising base? organizational base?

9
The nomination process

• If a candidate accepts matching funds, primary
  spending is limited by state population
• Different rules for delegate selection by party
  and state states vary in voter eligibility rules
• Dems use proportional representation of
  candidates with a high threshold (15 pct of
  vote), selected at 2 levels (cong dist
  at-large) but delegates may vote their
  conscience) Repub. thresholds vary by state
  they allow winner-take-all
• Dems use super-delegates to represent national
  party hierarchy Repubs dont

10
Pre-convention campaigning

• The pre-primary campaign
• Organizing, fundraising take time and effort
• Howard Dean formed an exploratory committee in
  fall 2002, followed by Kerry.
• Chicken-egg problem for candidates w/o natl rep.
  Examples 6 of 12 Repub candidates in 2000 quit
  before Iowa Gephardt, others used their PACs to
  start the fundraising process
• State organizations get out the vote, momentum
• Primaries and caucuses are very low-turnout
  elections
• Primaries and caucuses were front-loaded this year

11
Proximity voting?

• spatial theory of elections what kinds of issue
  platforms/candidate reputations are favored?
• assumes participants are known in advance
  candidate goal is to maximize share of vote
  usual conclusion is centripetal incentives
  vis-à-vis the distribution of voter preferences
• consequences for the general election?
• mobilization models of election
• both turnout and vote choice are in question for
  voters
• preference intensity matters
• consequences for the general election?