Oxnard

1
The City of Oxnard
Economic Outlook
Bill Watkins
October 20, 2004
2
The Economy is
Agriculture
Navy Trade
Manufacturing
3
The Economy is
59 Service, Retail, Government 12
Manufacturing 6 F.I.R.E 23
Construction, Agriculture, etc.
4
The Economy is
Booming!
5
Outline

• Home Prices
• The Forecast
• United States
• California
• Oxnard
• The Retirement Industry

6
Houses and Bubbles
7
Will home prices collapse and cause the end of
the civilization?
8
Bill Says
They mean that house prices will fall, and that
fall will cause a decline in consumer spending.
9
Nominal Median Home Price
California
524,100
451,000
371,500
316,100
262,400
217,500
186,500
185,000
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
10
Real Median Home Price Growth
California
17.9
17.7
14.7
11.9
7.0
5.6
5.2
4.5
2.9
-2.4
-3.1
-5.3
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
11
Chuck Maxey Says
Not to worry. American society is superficial
and materialistic. Consumers will continue
to spend.
Dean, CLU School of Business
12
Two Californias
13
Coastal California
14
Everywhere Else
15
Ten Least Rapidly Growing Counties in California
(2000-2004)
16
Ten Most Rapidly Growing Counties in California
(2000-2004)
17
Why Are Home Prices Going Up?

• Coastal California is not a local market
• Demographics
• Wealth accumulation
• Interest rates
• Taxes
• Supply

18
Greenspan Says
Theres a little froth in this market.
19
United StatesEconomy
20
Total Employment
United States
millions
141.8
139.2
137.7
136.9
136.9
136.5
133.5
131.5
129.6
127.6
125.7
123.6
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
21
Unemployment Rate
United States
22
Real Gross Domestic Product Growth
United States
4.5
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.0
3.7
3.7
3.7
2.7
2.5
1.6
0.8
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
23
Real Consumption Expenditures Growth
United States
5.1
5.0
4.7
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.4
3.3
3.1
2.7
2.5
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
24
Real Consumption Expenditures per Capita Growth
United States
3.9
3.8
3.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.2
2.1
1.5
1.5
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
25
How High Are Oil Prices?
26
Oil Price Adjusted for Wealth
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
27
What About Interest Rates?
28
Greenspan Says
Its a conundrum.
29
Federal Funds Rate
vs. U.S. Mortgage Rate
percent
25.0
20.0
Federal Funds Rate
U.S. Mortgage Rate
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
30
What About Hurricanes?
31
What About the cost of the Global War On Terror?
32
What About the Inflation?
33
Money Supply Growth
vs. U.S. Inflation Rate
12
10
Money Supply Growth
U.S. Inflation Rate
8
6
4
2
0
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
34
What About the Federal Deficit?
35
Californias Economy
36
Bill Says
Actually, California has been doing better than
expected.
37
Total Employment
California
16,767,338
16,459,850
16,165,042
16,034,117
15,203,700
14,303,517
13,953,867
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
38
Job Growth
United States and California
United States
California
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
39
Unemployment Rate
California
8.6
7.9
7.3
6.8
6.7
6.4
6.2
6.0
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
40
Real Gross State Product Growth
California
8.1
7.5
5.8
4.6
4.5
4.2
3.7
3.6
3.4
2.8
1.2
-0.2
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
41
Real Gross State Product per Capita Growth
California
7.2
6.4
4.3
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.5
1.6
0.9
0.0
-1.8
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
42
Oxnard
43
Real Median Home Price Growth
City of Oxnard
Last year we forecasted 9.9 for 2005.
44
Population
Comparison
45
Employment Index Comparison
(1991 100)
Oxnard Metro Area
Ventura County
46
Real Gross Regional Product Growth
Oxnard Metro Area
13.5
11.4
11.3
9.0
8.0
7.1
6.9
6.5
6.0
6.1
5.0
5.0
4.8
4.6
-0.7
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
47
Total Employment Growth
Oxnard Metro Area
14.9
7.3
5.8
5.0
5.0
4.8
3.6
3.5
3.0
2.6
2.6
2.5
1.3
0.3
-9.7
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
48
Employment Distribution (jobs)
Oxnard Metro Area - 2005
Agriculture
12,011
Mining
78
Construction
1,896
Durable Manufacturing
3,555
Non-Durable Manufacturing
3,703
Trans., Comm. Utilities
2,438
Wholesale Trade
3,011
Retail Trade
10,295
Finance, Ins. Real Estate
3,642
Other Services
13,274
Government
7,542
49
2-year Employment Growth
Oxnard Metro Area - 2005
6.5
Agriculture
1.0
Mining
-2.4
Construction
12.4
Durable Manufacturing
18.7
Non-Durable Manufacturing
7.5
Trans., Comm. Utilities
Wholesale Trade
2.7
0.3
Retail Trade
Finance, Ins. Real Estate
-0.5
10.7
Other Services
Government
9.1
50
Nominal Retail Sales per Capita
City of Oxnard
12,300
11,700
11,100
10,400
9,700
8,800
8,400
8,200
7,900
7,400
6,900
6,500
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
51
Real Retail Sales per Capita Growth
City of Oxnard
52
Hotel / Motel Room Sales
Oxnard City
53
2005 Nominal Median Home Prices
for Cities in Ventura County
672,421
660,384
587,506
573,629
566,644
541,732
530,202
505,070
460,415
415,959
Cama-
Fill-
Port
Moor-
Ojai
Oxnard
Simi
Santa
Thousand
Ventura
rillo
more
Hueneme
park
Valley
Paula
Oaks
City
54
Oxnards Strengths

• Port
• Location between Los Angeles Santa Barbara
• Infrastructure
• Consensus for growth

55
Clouds on Oxnards Horizon

• Housing prices
• Build out

56
The Retirement Industry
57
Think of retirees as tourists who just stay
longer.
Bill Says
58
Retirees who migrate are the healthiest,
wealthiest, and best educated of all retirees.
Mark Fagan says
Jacksonville State University sociologist
59
Older Migrants Classified

• Amenity
• Return
• Dependency

60
Amenity Migrants

• Younger
• Married
• Educated
• Homeowners
• Wealthy

61
Top Three Requirements

• Safety
• Health Care
• Amenities
• Active Downtown
• Climate
• Lifestyle Activities

62
Advantages of Amenity Migrants

• Works like a clean export industry
• Bring lots of capital
• Dont strain
• School systems
• Welfare systems
• Criminal justice systems

63
Advantages of Amenity Migrants

• Income is discretionary and spent locally
• Income is not cyclical or seasonal

64
Advantages of Amenity Migrants

• No infrastructure needed
• No investment needed
• No tax concessions needed

65
Winners

• Health care industry
• Financial services
• Recreation providers
• Entertainment sector
• Retail sector
• Other service sectors

66
Losers

• Tradable goods producers
• Agriculture Industry
• Generation X

67
Conclusion
Your future is so bright your gonna need shades!
68
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