future challenges for farmers and policy makers

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• future challenges for farmers and policy makers
• John Crosby
• Chairman QEAC

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What affects Import Risk?

• Climate
• Temperature ave, min, max, variability
• Humidity
• Opportunity
• Frequency of entry of goods
• Frequency of survival of import risks
• Mitigation Measures
• Overseas
• On arrival

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Climate

• One Degree C change in average temperature means
  about the same as moving north or south 100 Km
• There appears to be less consensus on humidity
  changes likely. Humidity is a key factor in
  survival of organisms
• Because Australia covers latitudes 10 degrees
  South to about 43degrees South it already
  encompasses most of the non Alpine and Arctic
  climates
• However, there could be a significant shift in
  which areas are affected by what pests and
  diseases
• Likely increase in risk from PapuaNG, Timor etc
  due to movement south of climatic similarity

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Geography of temperature change
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Opportunity Frequency of Entry

• Cargo movements per year
• 1.8M sea cargo containers
• 2.4M air items
• 0.36M air containers
• 13500 vessels
• 130M mail items
• People movements
• 12 M arrivals

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OpportunityFrequency of Survival

• Source countries
• Closeness to Australia
• Level of disease
• Type of disease
• Quality of management
• Climatic similarity
• Level of intervention

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Mitigation

• Overseas
• IRA Import Risk Assessment
• Aid programs to lift quarantine standards
• Protocols fumigation
• Controlled atmosphere
• Inspection and certification
• After Arrival
• Risk based inspection 19000 permits annually
• 480k seizures at airports 100k mail
• Quarantine
• Rapid response Equine Influenza!!

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What does this mean for Farmers?

• Tropical diseases and pests moving south
• Diseases and pests tend to follow production
• Increasingly harder to maintain disease and pest
  barrier due to level of contact with overseas
  visitors and returning Australians
• May increase some pests and reduce others in any
  given area.
• Expertise will be available, but effect may still
  be significant, particularly in local areas.

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Policy changes

• Beale has set the framework
• Climate change is less important than the
  increase in traffic, both human and cargo
• May need to increase northern surveillance
• Focus on combination of qualitative and
  quantitative analysis of risk
• Meaningful statistical collection and analysis
• Risk based use of resources

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Conclusion

• Improvements need to be made to keep ahead of the
  increasing risks whilst controlling costs
• Climate change may change the likely distribution
  of risk but not the type
• Australia has one of the best systems of
  quarantine in the world