Demography, Politics and Old Age John A' Vincent

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Demography, Politics and Old Age John A. Vincent

• British Society for Gerontology Annual
  Conference, Newcastle upon Tyne, 4-6 September
  2003.

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Statement of the problem

• The CIA (2001) raise the question as to whether
  intergenerational conflict will arise? They
  identify electoral politics as creating a key
  problem
• with ever more electoral power flowing into the
  hands of the elderly... A rise in
  intergenerational conflict may not be far behind
  (CIA 200135)
• this presentation explores the reality of the
  threat of older people dominating electoral
  politics, stifling economic and cultural
  creativity and sparking inter-generational
  conflict.

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Historically, the richest developed nations have
been growing, capital exporting, philanthropic
giants that have projected their power and mores
around the world. A quarter-century from now
these countries may instead be demographically
challenged, fiscally starving neutrals who
maneuver to avoid expensive international
entanglements Elder-dominated electorates may
be more risk averse, shunning decisive
confrontations abroad in favor of ad hoc
settlements.(CIA 200185)
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Older People and Politics Project

• Between May 1999 to May 2000
• Interviews were conducted with politicians,
  pressure group professionals and activists within
  the pensioners movement.
• Focus groups looked at perceptions of the power
  and influence of older people.
• A nationwide face-to-face survey by MORI.
• Observation and participation in a wide range of
  events including forums, public meetings,
  committee meetings and rallies.

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Older People and Politics Project
This presentation uses published sources -
particularly the documents of the parties and
politicians themselves to explore the
cross-national generality of the findings of the
OPPOL study.
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Key findings from OPPOL

• Problems for the political effectiveness of the
  pensioners movement include
• the diversity of interests and fragmentation
• organisational problems including leadership and
  continuity
• cultural problems around the perception of old
  age
• the political culture and constitution of the UK.

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Issues
. People are more likely to organise around
issues than around age groups. Pensions and
rights in the welfare state, around which most
older peoples organisations campaign, are seen
by their members as universal rights, not ones
specific to old age.
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The political culture and constitution of the UK
The British first past the post electoral
system encourages the dominance of two-party
politics. The British political tradition this
has been thought of as left and right, that is,
as an ideological or class divide. There is thus
no tradition of sectional interests such as age
groups or occupations seeking their own
representation.
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Compassionate ageism

• In Politics and Old Age, we concluded that the
  pensioners movement was not a powerful political
  force in British electoral politics. Older
  people were the subject of compassionate ageism,
  i.e. important to the electorate but not
  political actors in their own right as a self
  articulating political movement.

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Testing these findings against pensioner power
successes

• Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party success in
  May 2003
• Massive demonstrations in France against pension
  reform in 1995 and 2003
• Electoral success of Dutch Seniors parties in
  1994

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Scottish Parliament region. Central Region
result 
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John Swinburne elected as MSP

• The 'over 60s' in Scotland represent 24 of the
  electorate and while they are our main target
  group we are also calling upon their families to
  go out and vote according to their conscience
  with their first vote on polling day but to give
  their SECOND vote to their 'old folks.
• This quote from a SCCUP press conference shows
• a direct appeal to compassionate ageism.
• importance of proportional representation.

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Pensions top of the agenda

• A - Abolish poverty for all Scottish Senior
  Citizens by increasing the basic pension to 150
  per week
• B -  Banish means testing for all Scottish Senior
  Citizens
• C -  Council Tax to be replaced by a fairer local
  income tax 

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• Leadership - Swinburnes campaign depended on
  resources derived from other areas of life (in
  this case football).
• Fragmentation - as SCCUP was launched another
  Pensioners Party was also being launched in Fife.
  
• Expertise - Swinburne describes himself as
  politically naive, lacking expertise, and having
  to seek advice from the Electoral Commission.
• Ageism - Swinburne was not treated seriously in
  the campaign by important sections of the
  Scottish media. They were portrayed as grumpy
  old men in cardigans by the Scotsman.

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France

• Le Pourvoir Gris by J-P Viriot Durandal. (2003)
• the French welfare state creates particular kinds
  of interests
• grey power as a force in formation,
• It is struggling with the fragmentation and
  problem of making strategic alliances,
• There are cultural and symbolic obstacles as well
  as the organisational problems of radicalising
  older people.
• older people are creating new espaces daction,
  new agendas and new forms collective action which
  will themselves play a role in coming to define
  grey power.

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France

• fragmentation of French older politics.
• despite this fragmentation massive demonstrations
  and strike action have been mobilised.
• French activism focuses on opposition to pension
  reform.
• The opposition to these proposals are led
  primarily by Trade Unions.
• Most political pundits believe that the new
  French government will pass the proposed
  legislation and the Union led opposition will not
  have the success it did in 1995 in forcing a
  government retreat.

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organisations involved in the National Week of
retired and older people in the Department du
Nord.

• Association Jeunes Retraités
• Centre d'Information et de Coordination de
  l'Action Sociale - CICAS Nord
• Comité Départemental des Retraités et Personnes
  Agées - CODERPA
• Conseil Général du Nord
• Direction Départementale des Affaires Sanitaires
  et Sociales - DDASS
• Fédération des Clubs d'Aînés du Nord - FEDECRAN

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• Grandparenfant
• Les Petits Frères des Pauvres
• Mouvement Chrétien des Retraités
• Union Nationale des Centres Communaux d'Action
  Sociale - UNCCAS
• Union Régionale du Nord des Associations de
  Retraités - URNAR
• Union Régionale Interfédérale des Organismes
  Privés Sanitaires et Sociaux URIOPSS

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Netherlands

• The Algemeen Ouderen Verbond (AOV) is the Dutch
  General Seniors Party, founded in December 1993,
  by Martin Batenburg a seventy year old pensioner.
  They won 5 seats in the City council of
  Eindhoven. 3rd May 1994 they won 3,6 of the vote
  and 6 seats in Parliament.
• Another new party for the elderly, the Unie 55,
  also won a seat at that election.

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Netherlands

• The party did not survive its success and split
  and lost its seats. It has joined in an electoral
  alliance with the Unie 55.
• Succeeded through proportional representation and
  disillusion with the mainstream parties.
  Disillusion which resulted in electoral meltdown
  the short-lived electoral success of Pim
  Fortuyns party.

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United States

• AARP (American Association of Retired Persons).
• professional organisation, sustained by
  membership payments and commercial activities.
• access to life assurance benefits and travel and
  drug discounts as well as pressure group
  activities and policy making.
• highly influential organisation of 35 million
  members.

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USA militaristic images

• Young v. Old Intergenerational combat in the
  21st century MacManus and Turner (1996)
• Hamil-Luke, Jenifer (2001) The prospects of Age
  War Inequality between (and within) Age Groups
  Social Science Research. 30386-400.
• Street, D. (1997) Apocalyptic Demography Meets
  Apocalyptic Politics The British Society of
  Gerontology Conference Elder Power in the 21st
  Century. Bristol 19-21 September 1997.

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Older peoples use of the vote

• Achenbaum (1997) argues that in the USA old
  people dont vote differently than rest of
  population, although they tend to vote more. Our
  work suggests this is also true for Britain.
• Older Voters in both the USA and the UK do not
  tend to vote as an interest group. Older people
  tend not act collectively or vote together, even
  although many share common experiences of dashed
  expectations of income and support in old age.

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Why the CIA is wrong

• They confuse electoral power of older people with
  the popularity of the welfare state. Public
  expenditure on health care and pensions are not
  sectional interests of older people to be pursued
  through the ballot box. They are rather the
  collective interests of the great majority of
  working people who will tend to use their
  political influence to protect their entitlements
  to welfare and pensions.

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The CIA is sociologically naive

• Re-ification is characterising society as if it
  were an individual. Personalities and character
  traits belong to individuals not society. Counter
  intuitive social processes might be at work,
  generational blocks to aspiring youth might lead
  to a culturally creative society.
• It is ageist to characterise older people as
  lacking innovation and creativity. Across Europe,
  older people are more politically conservative
  but there is a key difference between
  conservative as avoiding change and conservative
  as supporting right wing policies and programmes.

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Comparisons

• The need in the United States for older people to
  act collectively to secure for themselves health
  insurance, cheap drugs, and a minimal safety net
  is because of the paucity of the state provision.
  
• Hence it is possible, in the US context, to
  portray older peoples solidarity as generational
  conflict.
• The different mixes of health, welfare, and
  pension provision in the UK, Netherlands and
  France militate against collective action by
  older people and thus any illusion of
  intergenerational conflict.

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Conclusions

• The electoral success of pensioner parties
  depends on constitutional regimes and the
  structure of politics. It takes forms of
  proportional representation for older peoples
  parties to get elected and their success is based
  in other resources than simply the appeal to
  older peoples material interests.
• PR enables fringe parties get elected through a
  broader disillusion with conventional politics

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Conclusion

• It is difficult to find evidence of a growth in
  the electoral strength of the older age groups.
  Evidence for an apparent lack of influence of
  older people, on the other hand, is twofold,
  first, in the character and activities of older
  peoples organisations and, second, in the low
  priority given by party political elites to older
  voters.