Freight Will Double by 2035 Yes, Double

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Freight Will Double by 2035Yes, Double!!
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AASHTO Freight Rail Bottom Line Report 2003

• addresses concerns about the capacity of the
  nations freight transportation system,
  especially the freight-rail system, to keep pace
  with the expected growth of the economy over the
  next 20 years.

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The Likely Future

• 450 million tons shifted to roads
• 15 billion increase in truck VMT
• 162 billion shipper costs
• 238 billion highway user costs
• 10-20 billion highway construction costs

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Conclusion

• The public sector and the private freight
  transportation community must advance public
  policy options that improve the capacity,
  productivity, and security of the freight-rail
  system as an integral part of the national
  freight transportation system.

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AASHTO Freight Transportation Bottom Line Report
2007Communicate! Motivate!

• The Importance of Rail Freight
• The U.S. Rail Freight System
• Rail Trends and Forecasts
• Rail Freight Issues
• Rail Freight Policy Options

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The Importance of Rail

• Rail promotes economic development and
  productivity
• Rail supports international trade
• Rail is more fuel efficient and generates less
  air pollution per ton mile than trucks
• Rail improves safety and security by offering a
  separated right-of-way for freight.
• Preferred for hazmats.
• Rail provides emergency response during national
  emergencies and military mobilization

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Issues

• National System
• Private profit/public benefit
• Corridorsmultimodal/multistate
• Passenger Service
• Crossings
• Terminals
• Highway congestion relief
• Environment/Community Impacts

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More and More and More of the Same
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Truck Traffic 2004-2035
Source Cambridge Systematics based on Global
Insight 2004 TRANSEARCH data and economic
forecasts.
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Major Truck Bottlenecks2004
Source Cambridge Systematics, Inc, An Initial
Assessment of Freight Bottlenecks on Highways,
prepared for Federal Highway Administration,
October 2005.
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Waterborne Freight Network

• Coastal System
• Great Lakes and
• St. Lawrence System
• Inland System

Source U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
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U.S. Ports by Tonnage
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U. S. Container Ports
TEU totals combined for the Ports of Los
Angeles/Long Beach and Seattle/Tacoma.
Source Cambridge Systematics based on American
Association of Port Authorities data.
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Landside Links
Source Cambridge Systematics
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National Rail Network
Source Cambridge Systematics based on Federal
Railroad and Bureau of Transportation Statistics
rail maps
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50 More Railcars 2035
Source Cambridge Systematics based on Global
Insight 2004 TRANSEARCH data and economic
forecasts.
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Major Rail-Freight CommoditiesTonnage, 2005 and
2035
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Bulk 2004
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Bulk Unit-Train Service2035
Source Global Insight 2004 TRANSEARCH data and
economic forecasts.
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Intermodal 2004
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Intermodal 2035
Source Global Insight 2004 TRANSEARCH data and
economic forecasts.
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Major Rail Choke Points 2007
Source Cambridge Systematics
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Class 1 Performance
Class I Railroads (Index 1981 100)
Productivity
Staggers Act(deregulation)October 1980
Volume
Revenue
Price
Source American Association of Railroads
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Freight DemandMore and Shifting

• Consumption
• Population growth
• Production
• Expanding durable and non-durable goods
  manufacturing
• Trade
• Import and export growth
• Supply Chain Practices
• Changing logistics strategies

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Modal Shares 2005-2035
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Issues

• National System
• Private Profit/Public Benefit
• CorridorsMultimodal/Multistate
• Consumer Economy/Producer Economy
• Passenger Service
• Crossings
• Terminals
• Highway Congestion Relief
• Environment/Community Impacts

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21st Century Initiatives

• Alameda Corridor
• CREATE
• FAST
• MAROPS
• Heartland Corridor (Crescent Corridor)
• New Orleans Hub

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State Financing

• Pennsylvania
• Florida
• New York
• Florida
• Iowa
• Kansas
• Washington
• Oregon
• California

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Public Sector Challenges

• No clear and consistent description of the
  freight transportation system, its performance,
  and investment needs
• Insufficient public sector knowledge of freight
  transportation and supply chain management and
  their importance to businesses and economic
  growth
• Lack of coordinated public and private actions on
  freight transportation policies, programs, and
  finance, and
• Lack of public sector focus on transportation
  operations

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Future Freight Financing Alternatives

• of Customs Fees for Port and Intermodal
  Investments
• Container or Freight Fee
• Transportation Finance Corporation
• Investment Tax Credit for New Rail Capacity
• Public-Private Partnerships
• In addition to traditional industry sources.

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AASHTO Recommendations

• Beyond more of the same
• Increased investment
• Four-phase revenue increase program
• New funding sources for freight gateways,
  corridors, and connectors
• Continue existing rail capacity programs
• Establish national rail transportation policy for
  passenger and freight rail

• Support multi-state infrastructure investment
  banks
• Encourage private investment to improve flow of
  goods
• Preserve Interstate System for the next 50 years
• Facilitate improvements to inland waterways and
  harbors
• Double capacity of Interstate System

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AASHTO Freight Transportation Network
www.freight.transportation.org