Freight Will Double by 2035 Yes, Double

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Freight Will Double by 2035Yes, Double!!
Net Tons (in Billions)
35
Truck
Rail
30
Water
25
Other
Air
20
15
10
5
0
2005
2007
2015
2017
2019
2023
2029
2009
2011
2013
2021
2025
2027
2031
2033
2035
Year
Source Global Insight 2004 TRANSEARCH data and
economic forecasts.
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AASHTO Freight Rail Bottom Line Report 2003

• addresses concerns about the capacity of the
  nations freight transportation system,
  especially the freight-rail system, to keep pace
  with the expected growth of the economy over the
  next 20 years.

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The Likely Future

• 450 million tons shifted to roads
• 15 billion increase in truck VMT
• 162 billion shipper costs
• 238 billion highway user costs
• 10-20 billion highway construction costs

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Conclusion

• The public sector and the private freight
  transportation community must advance public
  policy options that improve the capacity,
  productivity, and security of the freight-rail
  system as an integral part of the national
  freight transportation system.

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AASHTO Freight Transportation Bottom Line Report
2007Communicate! Motivate!

• The Importance of Rail Freight
• The U.S. Rail Freight System
• Rail Trends and Forecasts
• Rail Freight Issues
• Rail Freight Policy Options

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The Importance of Rail

• Rail adds transportation system capacity (for
  heavy loads) and reduces highway costs
• Rail promotes economic development and
  productivity
• Rail supports international trade
• Rail is more fuel efficient and generates less
  air pollution per ton mile than trucks
• Rail improves safety and security by offering a
  separated right-of-way for freight.
• Preferred for hazmats.
• Rail provides emergency response during national
• emergencies and military mobilization

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Issues

• National System
• Private profit/public benefit
• Corridorsmultimodal/multistate
• Passenger Service
• Crossings
• Terminals
• Highway congestion relief
• Environment/Community Impacts

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More and More and More of the Same
Percent
95
100
Up from 92 in 2005
90
80
Up from 61 in 2005
Up from 77 in 2005
80
65
70
60
Down from 25 in 2005
Down from 5 in 2005
Down from 14 in 2005
50
40
24
30
Down from 11 in 2005
Down from 7 in 2005
20
Same
13
8
6
10
4
1
0
Truck
Truck
Truck
Rail
Rail
Rail
Water
Water
Water
Tons
Value
Ton Miles
Source Global Insight 2004 TRANSEARCH data and
economic forecasts.
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Truck Traffic 2004-2035
Source Cambridge Systematics based on Global
Insight 2004 TRANSEARCH data and economic
forecasts.
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Major Truck Bottlenecks2004
Source Cambridge Systematics, Inc, An Initial
Assessment of Freight Bottlenecks on Highways,
prepared for Federal Highway Administration,
October 2005.
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Waterborne Freight Network

• Coastal System
• Great Lakes and
• St. Lawrence System
• Inland System

Source U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
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U.S. Ports by Tonnage
19
U. S. Container Ports
TEU totals combined for the Ports of Los
Angeles/Long Beach and Seattle/Tacoma.
Source Cambridge Systematics based on American
Association of Port Authorities data.
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Landside Links
Rail
Water
Highway
Source Cambridge Systematics
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National Rail Network
Source Cambridge Systematics based on Federal
Railroad and Bureau of Transportation Statistics
rail maps
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50 More Railcars 2035
Source Cambridge Systematics based on Global
Insight 2004 TRANSEARCH data and economic
forecasts.
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Major Rail-Freight CommoditiesTonnage, 2005 and
2035
Tons (in Billions)
4.0
3.5
3.0
Transportation Equipment
Primary Metal Products
2.5
Forest Products
Non-metallic Minerals
2.0
Farm and Food Products
Chemicals and Petroleum
1.5
Coal
Intermodal
1.0
All other
0.5
0.0
2004
2035
Year
Source Global Insight 2004 TRANSEARCH data and
economic forecasts.
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Bulk 2004
25
Bulk Unit-Train Service2035
Source Global Insight 2004 TRANSEARCH data and
economic forecasts.
26
Intermodal 2004
27
Intermodal 2035
Source Global Insight 2004 TRANSEARCH data and
economic forecasts.
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Major Rail Choke Points 2007
Source Cambridge Systematics
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Class 1 Performance
Class I Railroads (Index 1981 100)
Productivity
Staggers Act(deregulation)October 1980
Volume
Revenue
Price
Source American Association of Railroads
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Freight DemandMore and Shifting

• Consumption
• Population growth
• Production
• Expanding durable and non-durable goods
  manufacturing
• Trade
• Import and export growth
• Supply Chain Practices
• Changing logistics strategies

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Modal Shares 2005-2035
2035 Additional RailTon-Miles
2005 Current RailTon-Miles
2005 Current TruckTon-Miles
2035 Additional TruckTon-Miles
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Issues

• National System
• Private Profit/Public Benefit
• CorridorsMultimodal/Multistate
• Consumer Economy/Producer Economy
• Passenger Service
• Crossings
• Terminals
• Highway Congestion Relief
• Environment/Community Impacts

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21st Century Initiatives

• Alameda Corridor
• CREATE
• FAST
• MAROPS
• Heartland Corridor (Crescent Corridor)
• New Orleans Hub

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State Financing

• Pennsylvania
• Florida
• New York
• Florida
• Iowa
• Kansas
• Washington
• Oregon
• California

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Public Sector Challenges

• No clear and consistent description of the
  freight transportation system, its performance,
  and investment needs
• Insufficient public sector knowledge of freight
  transportation and supply chain management and
  their importance to businesses and economic
  growth
• Lack of coordinated public and private actions on
  freight transportation policies, programs, and
  finance, and
• Lack of public sector focus on transportation
  operations

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Future Freight Financing Alternatives

• of Customs Fees for Port and Intermodal
  Investments
• Container or Freight Fee
• Transportation Finance Corporation
• Investment Tax Credit for New Rail Capacity
• Public-Private Partnerships
• In addition to traditional industry sources.

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AASHTO Recommendations

• Beyond more of the same
• Increased investment
• Four-phase revenue increase program
• New funding sources for freight gateways,
  corridors, and connectors
• Continue existing rail capacity programs
• Establish national rail transportation policy for
  passenger and freight rail

• Support multi-state infrastructure investment
  banks
• Encourage private investment to improve flow of
  goods
• Preserve Interstate System for the next 50 years
• Facilitate improvements to inland waterways and
  harbors
• Double capacity of Interstate System

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AASHTO Freight Transportation Network
www.freight.transportation.org