MAP DPHASE

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MAP D-PHASE

• Forecast Demonstration Project
• Instrument of WWRP
• Last phase of MAP

Mathias Rotach, MeteoSwiss
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What is an FDP?

• WWRP instrument gt Forecast of weather of
  international relevance ? high-impact
  weather
• gt Clear evaluation protocols
• gt Expectation of success
• gt Clear advance in operational forecast.
• Proposal to WWRP

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Components of MAP FDP

• Forecast heavy precipitation events in the alps
• Include assimilation schemes (e.g., for radar
  data)
• Coupling hydro/meteo models
• End-user specific products
• ? develop and verify on MAP cases?
  experience with operational MC-2 (3km
  resolution during MAP SOP)
• ? Forecast Demonstration period

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General Goals

• Demonstrate ability for improved forecast of
  heavy precipitation in the alps
• ? High-resolution atmospheric modelling?
  ensemble forecast technique
• ? Radar data (assimilation)
• ? Hydrological modeling
• End users involved (end user needs, e.g.
  probabilistic forecasts)
• Evaluation protocols (yet to be determined)

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D-PHASE.

• Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and
  Atmospheric Simulation of Flooding Events in the
  Alps

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D-PHASE essentials

• Forecast (warning) chain for heavy precipitation
  events in the alps
• Test in pre-defined Forecast Period? MAP
  season (Sept to November) 2006 (7?)? extension
  to COPS (DFG field program on QNV in summer
  07)?
• Joint Target area Lago Maggiore various
  sub-areas

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Strategy for D-PHASE

• Atmosphere - Multi-component approach
• Local EPS systems (COSMO-LEPS, LAMEPS, PEPS,..)?
  3-5 days probabilistic forecast ? likelihood of
  event

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Probability maps for 24 h precipitation
André Walser COSMO-LEPS
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Strategy for D-PHASE

• Atmosphere - Multi-component approach
• Local EPS systems (COSMO-LEPS, LAMEPS, PEPS,..)?
  3-5 days probabilistic forecast ? likelihood of
  event
• standard deterministic models at high
  resolution (1-3km) ? short-range, targeted?
  coupled hydrological models? latest radar
  information assimilated
• A possible micro-LEPS made up as a poor mans
  EPS from the above? probabilistic information on
  hydrol. patterns.

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Strategy for D-PHASE

• Hydrosphere
• Hydrological models? distributed? coupled
• Assimilation of latest information ? radar
  composites? rain gauges
• Probabilistic forcing? from atmospheric models?
  from radar (obs) uncertainty

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Using COSMO-LEPS for hydrological forecasting

• COSMO-LEPS Setup
• quasi-operational since November 2002
• initial and boundary cond. from ECMWF EPS
• Integration period 120 h
• Model Lokal Modell (LM)
• Grid-spacing 10 km, 32 levels

Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich
COSMO-LEPS crew
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Deterministic Runoff Forecast
Aare - Thun (2490 km2)
1999 570 m3/s
observed runoff
1970 400 m3/s
Runoff mm/h
Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich
COSMO-LEPS crew
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Deterministic versus Probabilistic Forecast
AARE - Thun (2490 km2)
initialization
no precip
Runoff mm/h
51 member LEPS forecast
hydrological model driven by surface observations
surface observations
(Mark Verbunt, ETH Zürich)
Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich
COSMO-LEPS crew
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Deterministic versus Probabilistic Forecast
ILL Gisingen
Runoff mm/h
initialization
51 member LEPS forecast
hydrological model driven by surface observations
surface observations
Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich
COSMO-LEPS crew
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Representative members
5 EPS members (COSMO-LEPS clustering)
ILL Gisingen
Runoff mm/h
10 EPS members (COSMO-LEPS clustering)
Runoff mm/h
51 EPS members
Runoff mm/h
Mark Verbunt, Christoph Schär ETH Zürich
COSMO-LEPS crew
(Mark Verbunt, ETH Zürich)
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Strategy for D-PHASE

• End users
• 1. Authorities
• ? civil protection ? river/lake management
• 2. THEIR needs? thresholds? cost/loss

--gt end-to-end flood forecasting system
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ECMWF EPS
LAMEPS
regionalLEPS
Day -4
(COSMO) LEPS
Alert
Event? Where?
no
yes
Time
Days -3, -2, -1 Sub-domain X
HI-res simulation
HI-res simulation
HI-res simulation
ECMWF EPS
HI-res simulation
HI-res simulation
LAMEPS
regionalLEPS
(COSMO) LEPS
Confir- mation
HI-res LEPS
Hydrol. simulation
no
Nowcasting
Day 0
Latest obs.
Latest obs.
Latest obs.
Action
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Contributions

• Many (more than one..) LEPS SYSTEMS
• Many high-res (1-4km) deterministic models--gt
  most covering the alps

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Contributions

• Many (more than one..) LEPS SYSTEMS
• Many high-res (1-4km) deterministic models--gt
  most covering the alps
• Many hydrol. Models--gt each for one (more)
  catchment

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Contributions

• Many (more than one..) LEPS SYSTEMS
• Many high-res (1-4km) deterministic models--gt
  most covering the alps
• Quite a few hydrol. Models--gt each for one
  (more) catchments
• End users to be determined involved

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Time table
Time

• Evaluation etc. 2007
• Demonstration period Aug to Nov 2006 (Jun/Jul
  desirable)
• Test chain ready summer 2006
• High res. models tested end 2005
• Hydrol. Models tested end 2005
• Test cases defined May 2005
• Definition of user needs May 2005
• Set up of organisation end 2005 (done)
• Financial resources
• Start summer 2005
• application asap (dependent on
  what/where/etc)
• Proposal WWRP spring 2005
• Start May 2004

June to Nov 2007 ??
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Thank you for your attention