Woodstock RotaryCommunity Presentation

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Fundamentals of Forecasting Greg Carbin Warning
Coordination Meteorologist National Centers for
Environmental Prediction Storm Prediction
Center Norman, Oklahoma
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Violent Weather Takes Many Forms
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Every day is different. Why?
Not to scale!
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The atmospheric river surrounds us!
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Issues with predictability. Oh no!
Wide variations in forecast state!
Change
Ed Lorenz
Small change in initial conditions
Time
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Sensitive dependence on initial conditions
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So, is all hope lost oh Swami?
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No. But there will be a quiz!
                                               
                                      
                                                  
                                                  
                                 
                                                  
                                                  
                                               
                                                  
                                                
                                                  
                            
                                                  
                                                  
                    Mass continuity will read
                                                  
                    
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Advances in computing advances in forecasting
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Forecast improvements
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Forecast funnel and journalisms inverted pyramid
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Forecast funnel concept
Large scale weather systems Air masses, highs,
lows
Days
10000
Cold fronts, rain bands, lake-effect snow
Hours
100 s
Thunderstorm cells
Minutes
10 s
Tor?
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Large scale weather systems
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Large scale weather systems
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Fronts and smaller scales
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Fronts and smaller scales
Low
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Environmental assessment at even smaller scales
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Environmental assessment - Why shear ?
Thunderstorms in the presence of vertical speed
or directional shear will likely acquire greater
organization.
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Putting it all together
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Storm scale assessment now complete
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Forecast funnel and products from the SPC/NWS
Thunderstorm, Fire Weather, Severe Weather
OUTLOOKS
Days
Detailed Mesoscale DISCUSSIONS
Hours
SPC Products
SVR/TOR WATCHES
Minutes
WARN
Local NWS Products
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Storm Prediction Center Mission Statement
SPC exists solely to protect life and property of
the American people through the issuance of
timely, accurate watch and forecast products
dealing with tornadoes and other mesoscale
hazardous weather.
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SPC severe weather OUTLOOKS for this event
Four days away hail, wind, tor
Three days away hail, wind, tor
Two days away hail, wind, tor
Today tornado forecast
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION for this event
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SPC TORNADO WATCHES for this event
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Storm reports for this event
Monday, April 13th, 2009
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Time for questions and comments.
Norman, Oklahoma National Weather Center
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Orchard, Iowa June 2008
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Tennessee and Alabama February 2008
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Extremes exist all around at all times of year.
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Leighton, Alabama May 9, 2008
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Roanoke, Illinois July 2004
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Roanoke, Illinois July 2004
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Parsons Manufacturing Plant
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Parkersburg, Iowa May 25, 2008
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Parkersburg, Iowa May 25, 2008
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Parkersburg, Iowa May 25, 2008
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Thank You!