Aging Society

1
Aging Society

• May 20, 2005
• Bob Rosenblatt
• Senior Fellow, National Academy of Social
  Insurance

2
An Aging Society

• Older people are Living Longer and Healthier and
  Working Less
• Younger people are Marrying Later and Having
  Fewer Babies
• A milestone in human history coming in the year
  2050 More People Over Age 60 than Under Age 15

3
Later Marriage and Fewer Babies

• 1950 median age of marriage was 20 years old for
  women
• (Half married before 20, half married later)
• median age of marriage for men was 23
• 2000 median age of marriage was 23 for women
• and 27 for men

4
US Still Growing

• Replacement rate for population is 2.1 children
  per woman
• US birth rate is 2.1
• PLUS US gets one million immigrants a year
• US Population in 2000 was 294 million
• Projected population for 2050 is 397 million,
  third in world behind India and China

5
Shrinking Countries

• Countries expected to have FEWER people in 2050
  than 2004
• Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Portugal,
  Russia, South Korea, Spain

6
Baby Boom in the US

• Runs from 1946 through 1964, when 76 million
  people were born
• Some famous oldest boomers (born in 1946)
  George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Donald Trump, Susan
  Sarandon, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Sylvester
  Stallone, Pat Sajak, Reggie Jackson, Bruce
  Springsteen
• In 2003 36 million people over 65 or 12 of
  US population
• In 2030 71 million people over 65 or 20 of
  the US population 

7
Aging Now

• US population in 2002 12.4 over 65 
• Old states Florida (17.2) Pennsylvania
  (15.5), West Virginia (15.3) North Dakota
  (14.8) Iowa (14.8)
• Young states Alaska (6.1) Utah (8.6),
  Georgia (9.5), Colorado (9.6) Texas (9.9)
• US Population over age 65 is 58 female, 42 male
• Population over age 85 is 69 female, 31 male

8
Healthier

• Where are the Missing Nursing Home Patients?
• Take 1,000 people over the age of 65
• In 1985 54 of them were in nursing homes
• In 1999 43 were in nursing homes 
• Take 1,000 people over the age of 85
• 1985 220 were in nursing homes
• 1999 183 were in nursing homes

9
Working Less

• Ages 55 to 61 in the work force
• Men 1963 89.9 2003 74.9
• Women 1963 43.7 2003 62.5

10
Ages 62 to 64 In the Work Force

• Men 1963 75.8
• Low point 1994 45.1
• 2003 49.6
• Women 1963 28.8
• Low point 1981 27.6
• 2003 38.6

You can draw Social Security early retirement
benefits at age 62
11
Ages 65 to 69In the Work Force

• Men 1963 40.9
• Low point 1985 24.4
• 2003 32.8
• Women 1963 16.5
• Low point 1985 14.2
• 2003 22.7

12
Poverty Rates

• People over 65
• 1959 35 2002 10
• Working Age 18 to 64,
• 1959 17 2002 10
• Children 18 and younger
• 1959 27  2002 20

13
What It Costs 

• US Economic (Gross Domestic Product) Equals 1
• Social Security plus Medicare Equals 7 cents
• 2030 Projections
• Social Security plus Medicare Equals 14
  cents

14
Medicaid (Federal- state Program for the Poor)

• State Expenditures
• Fiscal 1987 states spent 22.8 of their budgets
  for education, K through 12 and 10.2 for
  Medicaid
• Fiscal 2003 states spent 21.7 for education
  and 21.4 for Medicaid
• 2004 may be first year when Medicaid surpasses
  education